Tag: eurasia review

Unrest rising with no reconciliation in sight: Eurasia Review

In the current tense situation prevailing in Male, one would have expected President Waheed to make the initial move towards reconciliation during the national day address last week on the 47th year of independence. It was not to be, writes Dr S Chandrasekharan for the Eurasia Review.

In his speech President Waheed appealed to the people to offer full cooperation to the State’s relentless peace efforts while maintaining high regard for the country’s laws and legislature. While highlighting the need to safeguard the religion, consolidating the military forces and further unifying people, a conciliatory gesture on his part would have gone a long way in defusing the current tensions.

On the other hand his position is seen to have hardened. On 17th July he said that he ( he meant his party) will not participate in the All Party talks while the MDP continues to going back to street protests in Male. Earlier the President’s spokesperson condemned the MDP protests as “acts of terrorism.”

President’s Adviser Dr. Saeed who holds a very important post and who is expected to show some restraint declared very categorically that there is no benefit in continuing the “All Party Talks” and does not believe that Nasheed’s participation would reap any benefit!

Earlier the chairman of the All party talks- Ahmed Mujuthaba announced that 16 previous attempts at talks among the top political leaders had not resulted in any breakthrough! It looks that the talks have been given a decent burial. So much for the Indian initiative!

In the last few days, over 200 protestors have been arrested and this included many MDP MPs and even a former cabinet minister. Many of those released after arrests have been ordered to remain indoors in the evening and the night till the next morning! Quite a strange order!

Not all the protests have been peaceful either. In many instances the protestors are seen to have broken the barricades and rushed towards the security forces. The security forces have also been subjected to verbal and filthy abuses.

The Police are also seen to be using “pepper spray” indiscriminately. There is a video footage doing the rounds showing the security forces aiming the spray at Nasheed! The government has publicised the statements of the bodyguards provided by the government from the forces that they did not see any spray being aimed at Nasheed. They have to say this if they are to keep their jobs!

With the government pushing for prosecution of Nasheed, the latter has called on all the population to be present at the trial to witness what happens in the court while alleging that he whole case is being politically motivated.

The MDP has already declared that it will not participate in an election where its presidential candidate ( here Nasheed) is prevented from contesting.

An unfortunate incident of a killing of a lance corporal of Maldivian police by a criminal while he was being arrested is being given a political twist by none other than the Home minister himself that the MDP protests and abuse of Police by the demonstrators have led to the killing!

UK Foreign Office Spokesman Alistair Burt made a very balanced statement. He said -” I call on all sides to show restraint in the interest of achieving a sustainable political solution to Maldives’ recent problem. Protests must be peaceful and security forces’ response should be professional and proportionate. Violence and any cases of excessive use of force should be investigated and those responsible held to account.”

The Special Envoy of the Commonwealth made a similar call for restraint. He expressed his concern at ‘rising political tension’ in Maldives and specifically over the ongoing protests and criminal charges filed against Nasheed. He called for dialogue among political parties urging all parties to show restraint and restore calm.

The European Union made a similar observation. Their High Representative said – continued political unrest, heavy-handed response of security forces and charges filed against political leaders will only lead to further deterioration of the political climate of the country and will adversely affect the lives of all Maldivian citizens.

India on its part has also called for restraint and dialogue. These appear to have fallen on deaf ears of both sides.

Read more

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Government sheds pretence of reconciliation with charging of Nasheed: Eurasia Review

The new government of the Maldives has shed all pretence of reconcilliation with its levying of criminal charges against former President Mohamed Nasheed, writes Dr S Chandrasekharan for the Eurasia Review.

“If sentenced Nasheed and Tholiath will face a jail term or banishment for three years and or a fine of MVR 3000.

It looks that the government has shed all its pretences of going for reconciliation with the ousted President Nasheed and with this, the initiative taken by India in starting the “All Party Road Map Talks” is also dead and buried. It should also be clear to the policy makers in India that President Waheed and his government have no intention of holding early elections as promised earlier.

This also coincides with the week long direct action protests by MDP protestors led by Nasheed that had often resulted in regular and in some cases brutal confrontation between the Police and the demonstrators. The MDP claims that over a hundred of its protestors have been arrested. One graphic picture in the media showed a bald headed protester being hit on his head by a lathi by the police.

As if to rub salt in the wound, Home minister Jameel said that it is a “historic criminal trial” and the first step towards the national healing process. We have seen the healing process in the last seven days with the law and order situation getting more serious with each day of protest.

It looks that prosecution will be one of the means that is being adopted to prevent Nasheed from contesting the next presidential elections. It may be recalled that in the internal poll held to select the presidential candidate by the MDP, Nasheed obtained over 31,000 votes.

The deputy head of the PPM which is literally running the government, Umar Naseer expressed his confidence last month that former President Nasheed will see his imprisonment before the scheduled elections in July 2013 (note the date).

The powerful Adviser to the President Dr. Hassan Saeed also in a similar vein said that he “does not believe that Nasheed will be a free man during the time of next Presidential elections.” Is it not ironic that it is the same Saeed who in his capacity as Attorney General in Gayoom’s regime had way back in 2005 filed a complaint against Judge Abdulla on allegations of misogyny, sexual deviation and also throwing out an assault case despite the confession of the accused? ? It is Abdulla’s detention in late January that triggered the prosecution case against Nasheed.

It is said that the final report by the newly reconstituted Commission of National Enquiry will be delayed by a month. The new committee has begun its enquiry with two new members, one a nominee of Nasheed and another a Judge (Justice Selvam) Singapore.

The time line produced by the old committee before the new one was constituted has created an avoidable controversy. It is alleged by the MDP that this report was an attempt to prejudice the work of the new committee. A rejoinder to the time line produced by the MDP- the “Ameen- Aslam” report has resulted in an expected reaction of the government terming it as a “terrorist Act” and both Ameen and Aslam are being prosecuted as terrorists! Ameen was the National Security Adviser during Nasheed’s tenure and he is fully aware of the circumstances under which Nasheed resigned.

It is back to the Gayoom days when Nasheed was prosecuted under terrorism laws when he protested against the government in a public place!

Nasheed’s recent statement in US that tourists should boycott Maldives has caused a near panic in the country. This will hurt the country a lot more than even the ongoing violent street protests. An emergency resolution has been introduced in the Majlis on 7 July by a few members to discuss the tourism boycott call.

What is surprising is that Nasheed is still able to organise protests on a massive scale and it looks that he is determined to fight on. The Maldivian Government under President Waheed appears to be equally determined to put down the protests and go ahead with the prosecution of Nasheed without leaving any space for reconciliation. This is a dangerous trend.”

Read more

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Some points former President Nasheed should ponder: Eurasia Review

“There is no doubt that former President Nasheed was forced to quit by the machinations of a few disgruntled- serving and retired security personnel and Islamists with a strong backing of those political leaders opposed to Nasheed and his party,” writes Dr S Chandrasekharan for Eurasia Review.

As someone had said, it was the result of a nexus amongst the money bags, Islamists and those in opposition. And there was Gayoom all over directing from behind. Yet the odds for having early elections appear to be not so bright and he needs to re-examine his own strategy now.

The daily processions growing in numbers in the last days of Nasheed’s regime before February 7th gave an indication that Nasheed could not have withstood the “onslaught.”

However right Nasheed may be in continuing with the protests calling for early elections, he should in my view consider the following points in working out a strategy that would, not necessarily bring him back to power but to “restore democracy” as he himself had pointed out.

  • So far the MDP has been able to organise impressive protests in Male and other places. The April 20 rally of MDP calling for Speaker’s resignation saw a gathering of about 10,000. The May day rally on 1st May turned out to be another big protest rally. There have been minor rallies in the evenings between 5.30 and 7.30. The students who are taking the final examination in Male have protested about the disturbances and the rallies are being conducted in a very low key. Differences within the party have arisen over the efficacy of continued street protests. The question is whether Nasheed could sustain the street protests for long when the Government is in no mood to relent? It is going to be difficult and the MDP may in due course lose sympathy of the people and may also see attrition from the party itself. ( The latter has already happened)
  • Nasheed’s visit to India has not been much of a success. He met the Prime minister on the 23rd along with his trusted colleagues of the party. On the eve of his meeting the external affairs ministry indicated India’s position “that engagement of all stake holders . . . will facilitate a constructive dialogue among all the political parties and help in bringing stability . . .” The PM in his meeting with Nasheed stressed on the road map of Feb 16 given by the Indian foreign secretary which calls for early elections. The road map is now dead and gone and India is neither in a position nor will it even try to resurrect the road map.

Read More

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Why is Gayoom plunging back into active politics, asks the Eurasia Review

Former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s decision to create a new political party should come as now surprise to anyone who has been watching developments in the Maldives, writes S. Chandrasekharan for the Eurasia Review.

“Gayoom had been openly accusing the DRP leadership since March this year of acting ‘dictatorially’ and violating the party charter. Thus Gayoom was leaving a party that was created by him on July 21, 2005 when the country was moving towards a multi party democracy and ditching the current leader of the party Thasmeen Ali – a person chosen by him personally. “When Thasmeen took over, Gayoom was made the “honorary leader” ( Zaeem ) of the DRP. The understanding was that he would for all practical purposes give up politics and have a role like that of a senior adviser.

It now transpires and Gayoom has admitted that he never had any intention of giving up politics and alleged that he resigned from the DRP – the party he created could not be reformed despite all his efforts.

In a press conference on 4th of September to a private channel Gayoom declared that he was forming the party to achieve ‘very important’ national purposes that included:

  • Strengthening Islam in the country and maintain Islam as a religion that they all love and respect.
  • To protect their independence and sovereignty
  • To establish a strong democratic system in the country
  • Ensure happiness and prosperity to the people
  • To reform the country to make it a place where people want to live
  • Uphold public order, peace and stability and facilitate equal opportunity for everyone to advance

Why is he using the ‘Islamic Card’ now when Islam is in no danger in Maldives? The danger as one commentator has said in Minivan News on the same day of the press conference is from the Muslim leaders themselves. He said:

“The Muslim [world] needs leaders who can go beyond petty sloganeering and asserting a hollow supremacy… needs leaders who understand that for a religion to maintain its greatness, it principles need to be as dynamic as the human cultures and societies themselves… what is needed is a change of guard and a new class of leaders who are not afraid to take the much harder route – one of accomplishment and progress; to create a world where a tyrant like Gadafi or terrorist like Osama never again gets mistaken for a ‘Muslim leader’.’

Democracy itself is not in danger in Maldives now or before. What we saw was that the ruling party ( that was in a minority) was thwarted at every stage to establish democratic traditions and move forward with the new constitution.

President Nasheed had respected the majority decisions of the Majlis though such decisions ran counter to good governance – like the appointment of cabinet ministers or of the judicial decisions. He did not use his presidential position to countermand such decisions.

Those outsiders who have been following the developments in Maldives would confirm that despite all the hiccups and obstructive tactics of the opposition, democracy is taking firm roots in a country that had seen only authoritarian regimes until very recently.

Gayoom could have achieved the objectives mentioned in his press conference through the coalition partner – People’s Alliance led by his half brother Abdulla Yameen. Instead we find that Yameen had also ditched the party he created and was the one of the first to register himself with the new party.

In the press conference, Gayoom did not say anything about his intention to contest the next presidential elections. He may still do, though there are other contenders like Yameen who had earlier declared his intention to do so.

We come back to the question as to why Gayoom is plunging into active politics once again when he could have retired with all the benefits he obtained and led a life of a senior statesman?

It looks that the deal he had with the present regime to abstain from politics in return for certain benefits no longer holds good. His past conduct under the three decades of absolute rule may come to haunt him. Perhaps, (it is only a guess) he feels that he has to be in the driving seat in active politics to save himself.

Two issues have come up already.

The present government has ordered the reopening of investigation of the 2003 Maafushi Jail shooting. A Special committee consisting of the Housing Minister, the Attorney General and the Defence Minister has been formed by the President in this connection.

There was an investigation of the riots earlier and the report of January 2004 that has not been published mentioned that there was no emergency situation and that shooting of the prisoners was neither a proportional response nor reasonable means of control.

The Officer who ordered the shooting, Captain Adam Mohamed was granted clemency by Gayoom. A former prison guard who was recently arrested for the shooting in 2003 revealed that the order to shoot came from the “top.”

More dirty details of the unfortunate incident may come out now.

Gayoom was also the Minister of Defence and National Security at the time of the riots.

Second- the scandal involving former President Gayoom and his half brother Abdulla Yameen in the 800 million oil deal has also been revived and it was revealed on 3rd August that the National Security Committee has proposed to summon Gayoom to investigate his involvement in the deal.

The scandal related to buying of subsidised oil through the Singapore Branch of Maldivian State Trading Corporation and selling it to the Burmese Military Junta at black market premium rates.

It looks that President Nasheed is slowly giving up the idealistic positions he has been taking all along. One recent example is the way Maldives has responded to the Human rights violations of Sri Lanka during the last stages of war against the LTTE. Its representative said at the United Nations that one should take note of the violation not only on what happened during the last stages of war but also much earlier thereby diluting the whole thrust of the argument of gruesome violations that took place towards the close of the war when 40,000 civilians were killed.”

Read original article

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Opposition split excuse to break coalition: Eurasia Review

As expected, on 16th July, the People’s Alliance (PA) led by former President Gayoom’s half brother Abdulla Yameen formally split from the main opposition coalition of DRP and PA, writes S Chandrasekharan for the Eurasia Review.

“The reasons given were general in nature and these included 1. Failure to take initiative for the making efforts needed to hold the government accountable. 2. The DRP leader Thasmeen Ali did not adequately shoulder responsibility and take the initiative that befits a majority leader and 3. Presence of serious divisions within the DRP and its failure to resolve the dispute as well as splits between DRP members in the Parliament and failure to appropriately embrace the party’s whip line.

The allegations were too general and were only excuses made to get out of the coalition. What Abdulla did not say was that it is being done at the behest of his half brother and former president Gayoom who it appears has finally decided to plunge into “active politics.”

In this process Gayoom ditched his closest ally Thasmeen Ali who was his Home Minister when the former was in power and later his running mate in the Presidential elections. Thasmeen Ali who was elected in the 3rd National Conference of th DRP in 2010 as party leader and fully endorsed by Gayoom had performed well in the parliamentary and the local elections despite the increasing popularity of President Nasheed and his party the MDP.

Soon after on the 21st, a new coalition was formed with the breakaway faction of DRP ( known as Z-DRP- Zaeem DRP), the Jhumhoree party, the People’s Alliance and the DQP. Thus, Thasmeen would lose his position even as “minority leader” of the Majlis.

Gayoom has thus once again taken over the centre stage in Maldivian politics. After getting generous retirement basis it was said that he had given an undertaking that he would retire from active politics.

Now a separate office has been opened for him (said to have been contributed by his friends!) in Male. True to his form he started in grand style in blaming the external factors for the problems faced by his country in Maldives. He did not mention that the present economic problems faced by the current regime are due to profligate spending during his days. His government is said to have left a debt of US dollars 446.5 million.”

Read more

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)