Maldives democratic transition in “limbo”: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

“With the Maldivian Supreme Court postponing second round of elections, the democratic transition in the Maldives has gone into limbo,” writes Anand Kumar in a comment piece for the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA).

“The confusion prevailing in the country after the first round of elections has also made it clear that whosoever emerges victorious after the second round if it is held at all, he may find opposition quite difficult to handle in the aftermath of elections,” added Kumar.

“The much awaited multi-party elections in Maldives took place on September 7, 2013. As expected the first round failed to throw up a clear winner. This has now necessitated a second round which was earlier scheduled for September 28, 2013, and has now been postponed.

In the run-off election top two candidates from the earlier round would contest. They are Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) candidate, Mohamed Nasheed and Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) candidate Abdulla Yameen. However, the third candidate, Qasim Ibrahim from Jumhooree Party who lost by a whisker does not seem satisfied with the results and has gone to the court. In response to his petition the Supreme Court of Maldives has suspended presidential elections sparking protests and fears of instability in the archipelago country.

The polls in Maldives generated lot of enthusiasm among the people. They turned out in large numbers and nearly 88 percent of eligible voters used their franchise. In Maldives, the total number of voters is 2,39,593 out of which 2,11,890 cast their ballot. Former president Mohamed Nasheed managed 95,224 (45.45 per cent). Yameen, half brother of former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom came second with 53,099 votes (25.35 per cent) and business tycoon Qasim Ibrahim came a close third with 50,422 votes (24.07 per cent). President Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik finished last with 10,750 votes (5.13 per cent).

The interesting part of first round of polling is that business tycoon, Qasim Ibrahim who is also supported by the fundamentalist Adhaalath Party lost by a whisker. This has made swallowing defeat little difficult for him. Similarly, incumbent President Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik polled just five percent of the votes and probably is the first sitting president anywhere in the world to get such low percentage in a re-election.

This clearly shows that his was not a popular government though earlier a Commonwealth-led probe had stated that the transfer of power was done according to the constitution. The Commission of National Inquiry (CoNI) set up by the Maldivian government last year had also found no evidence of a coup.

Qasim Ibrahim who came third with less than 3000 votes has alleged irregularity in polling. He alleged that there are several flaws in the voter list. He has claimed that he could have easily got between 10,000 to 30,000 more votes. He has disputed the result in the High Court, Supreme Court, at rallies, and on his television station – Villa TV – declaring that he should have been placed first. Interestingly, PPM has also extended support to Qasim Ibrahim and has accepted the Supreme Court’s decision to delay the elections.

There is nothing wrong with Qasim Ibrahim going to the courts. But Maldives judiciary has its own problem. Supreme Court Judge Ali Hameed has been implicated in a series of widely circulated obscene videos, but the judicial oversight body Judicial Services Commission (JSC) decided not to suspend the judge against the recommendation of a subcommittee it set up to investigate the matter. This happened because Qasim Ibrahim was a member of the JSC at the time and he stopped all action against the judge.

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