Saudi oil reserves could be 40% lower than estimated: US Embassy cable

The Maldives’ economy could be crippled by rising oil prices sooner than expected, after a leaked cable from the US embassy in Riyadh sparked fears that Saudi Arabian oil reserves could be 40 percent lower than previous estimates.

In the cable dated November 2007, geologist and former head of exploration at Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant Aramco told US consul general John Kincannon that the world’s largest oil company may have overstated its reserves by 300 billion barrels.

Saudi Arabia is believed to sit on almost a quarter of the world’s oil reserves, the export of which directly accounts for almost 50 percent of country’s GDP and indirectly for much of the rest of its industry.

In 2007, Aramco reported that it had 716 billion barrels of total reserves, 51 percent of which was recoverable. Within 20 years the company predicted it would have 900 million barrels, and a recovery rate of 70 percent.

“Al-Husseini disagrees with this analysis, as he believes that Aramco’s reserves are overstated by as much as 300 billion [barrels] of ‘speculative resources’,” the cable reads.

“In al-Husseini’s view, once 50 percent depletion of original proven reserves has been reached and the 180 billion [barrel] threshold crossed, a slow but steady output decline will ensue and no amount of effort will be able to stop it. By al-Husseini’s calculations, approximately 116 billion barrels of oil have been produced by Saudi Arabia, meaning only 64 billion barrels remain before reaching this crucial point of inflection. At 12 million [barrels per day] production, this inflection point will arrive in 14 years.”

Al-Husseini was on Aramco’s board of directors from 1986 until 2004, and sat on the company’s Board of Directors from 1996 to 2004. He was, states the cable, “no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered.”

A decline in the rate of oil production at a time when demand continues to surge, particularly in the developing world, will cause the oil price to skyrocket.

The Maldivian economy is dependent on oil to such an extent that is spends a quarter of its GDP on it – US$245 million – mostly marine diesel. The 15 percent increase in oil prices over the past five months has led to the Maldives spending almost US$100,000 more on fossil fuels, per day.

Recent turmoil in Egypt – home to the Suez canal, one of the world’s major oil routes which sees 3 million barrels pass through daily – has seen oil prices jump twice past the US$100 a barrel mark in the last few weeks.

Were that price to eventually stick, due to either ongoing Middle East instability or concerns over supply such as those cited in the Riyadh leak, then the Maldives could end up spending upwards of US$230,000 a day on fuel when accounting for possible economic growth of about eight percent during 2011.

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Cabinet appoints sub-committee to implement local councils, teachers to be licensed

Cabinet yesterday decided to appoint a sub-committee to oversee the technical and administrative arrangements for establishing local councils, following the elections on Saturday.

Ministers acknowledged that there were also legal requirements that needed to be met before councils could commence their duties.

During Tuesday’s cabinet meeting, ministers also decided to register and license teachers working in the Maldives, after reviewing recommendations in a paper presented by the Ministry of Education.

When the decision comes into effect, all teachers teaching in pre-school to higher secondary levels, school principals, technical staff in these levels, and all those interested in teaching in schools of the Maldives will be required to register and acquire a license to teach.

Vice President Dr Mohamed Waheed chaired the meeting as President Mohamed Nasheed is a four day holiday following the local council elections.

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

President commends independent institutions on “peaceful and competitive” elections

The Elections Commission, police, state authorities and civil society organisations were to be commended for the generally peaceful local council elections, held last Saturday, President Mohamed Nasheed has said.

The elections were peaceful and competitive without major incident, Nasheed said.

The DRP won 502 seats, 91 island councils and 10 atoll councils, according to preliminary results of the local council elections.

MDP won 375 seats, 61 island councils, four atoll councils and 88 percent of the city council seats. Independents took 160 seats, 15 island councils and one atoll council (Dhaalu).

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

IFC and MMA to establish Maldives’ first credit information bureau

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is to work with the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) to establish the country’s first credit information bureau, reports India Infoline.

The creation of a formal mechanism for sharing credit information will improve access to finance for small and medium enterprises, the IFC stated.

“Creating a financial infrastructure that supports informed credit-related decisions and improves access to credit for small and medium enterprises is an important priority for IFC and the Maldives,” said Per Kjellerhaug, IFC Regional Manager. “Establishing a credit information bureau will help the country get closer to achieving this goal.”

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Shareef claims leaked audio was doctored

Opposition Deputy Leader and Spokesperson Ibrahim ‘Mavota’ Shareef has confirmed that while the voice in an audio clip leaked yesterday was his, parts of the conversation had been edited.

During the conversation Shareef questions the support for former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in Addu, and suggested that were Gayoom’s faction to campaign there, “we will beat them up and drag them away [from Addu].”

That led to a crowd gathering outside the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) headquarters calling for the resignation of Shareef and Leader Ahmed Thasmeen Ali. When Shareef confronted the crowd he was attacked, and escorted to safety by police.

The source of the leaked phone call, which was aired on MNBC and DhiFM, has not been identified. However Shareef told Haveeru that the recording was engineered by mixing parts of a conversation he had with several different people, after dismissed Deputy Leader Umar Naseer “created conflicts by attending our function.”

“We were have conversations with several people. A group of people recorded such a conversation and leaked it,” he told Haveeru. “The part of the leaked audio, in which I was saying ‘Gayoom cannot go to Addu to campaign’, was edited. I never said it directly.”

Shareef and Thasmeen were not responding to calls at time of press.

Spokesperson for Gayoom Hussein ‘Mundhu’ Shareef was quoted in Haveeru as saying that Mavota Shareef owed an apology to the former President: “Maumoon holds the most honorary position in the DRP and is linked to many people’s spirit. So no-one can make a comment in order to tarnish the reputation of Maumoon,” Haveeru reported Mundhu as saying.

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Google exec galvanises Egyptian protesters in second wave of demonstrations

The protests in Egypt against the rule of President Hosni Mubarak have been reignited following the release from police custody of Wael Ghonim, an online activist and key organiser of the demonstrations.

Ghonim, who is also Google’s head of marketing for the Middle East and North Africa, wept openly on Dream TV and gave an emotional interview that has reinvigorated anti-government protests in Cairo.

The search giant had earlier appealed for public help in locating the missing executive, who disappeared on January 27 and was adopted by many protesters as a symbolic leader.

When he was told about the deaths of 300 people who died during the demonstrations, he cried – “We didn’t do anything wrong. We did what our consciences dictated to us”, he said.

Yesterday, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators filled the central square of Cairo while marches erupted in cities across the country.

“I like to call it the Facebook Revolution, but after seeing the people right now, I would say this is the Egyptian people’s revolution. It’s amazing,” Ghonim was reported as saying, after he was mobbed by galvanised supporters.

“Egyptians deserve a better life. Today one of those dreams has actually come true, which is actually putting all of us together and as one hand believing in something,” he said.

Prior to Ghonim’s release foreign media present in Egypt had reported a drop in momentum following 12 days of unprecedented demonstrations, with the UK’s Independent newspaper writing that Mubarak was using “all the guile that has kept him in power for so long to produce a series of sweeteners – including a 15 per cent pay rise for state employees – to widen his public support.”

The United States meanwhile backed Mubarak’s perferred successor, recently appointed Vice-President Omar Suleiman, as the country’s transitional leader in a bid to encourage President Hosni Mubarak to step aside.

Suleiman was appointed to the position by Mubarak following the sacking of his entire cabinet. Columnist Lisa Hajjar writes for Al-Jazeera that Egypt’s intelligence has CIA links and has “long been favoured by the US government for his ardent anti-Islamism [and] his willingness to talk and act tough on Iran.”

“There are forces in any society, particularly one facing these kind of challenges, that will try to derail or overtake the process to pursue their own agenda,” said US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, “which is why I think it’s important to follow the transition process announced by the Egyptian government, actually headed by vice-president Omar Suleiman.”

The US appears anxious that Egypt avoid the fate of Iran, which replaced a US-backed dictatorial regime with an unpredictable Islamic republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini during the Iranian revolution in 1979. Egypt is central to the region and an unstable Egypt would have a knock-on effect on world oil prices.

Media in Egypt have reported that one group likely to benefit from the fall of Mubarak is the Muslim Brotherhood, founded by Hassan al-Banna 1928 in opposition to the British presence in Egypt.

“Six Egyptian workers employed in the military camps of Ismailiyya in the Suez Canal Zone visited Banna, a young teacher who they had heard preaching in mosques and cafes on the need for ‘Islamic renewal’,” writes the Guardian’s Jack Shenker, in a rare interview with the group.

“‘Arabs and Muslims have no status and no dignity,’ they complained, according to the brotherhood’s official history. ‘They are no more than mere hirelings belonging to the foreigners… We are unable to perceive the road to action as you perceive it…’

Banna later wrote that the Europeans had expropriated the resources of Muslim lands and corrupted them with ‘murderous germs’: ‘They imported their half-naked women into these regions, together with their liquors, their theatres, their dance halls, their amusements, their stories, their newspapers, their novels, their whims, their silly games, and their vices… The day must come when the castles of this materialistic civilisation will be laid low upon the heads of their inhabitants.’

Banna argued that Islam provided a complete solution, with divine guidance on everything from worship and spiritual matters to the law, politics and social organisation. He established an evening school for the working classes which impressed the general inspector of education and by 1931 the brotherhood had constructed its first mosque – for which the Suez Canal Company is said to have provided some of the funds.”

The BBC reported that a senior Hamas commander from Gaza, Ayman Nofel, used the chaos to escape his three year detention in Egypt on unspecified charges.

“I shouted to other prisoners to break down the doors and gates,” Nofel told the BBC, who used smuggled mobile phones to mobilise local residents outside the jail to storm the prison gates and allow him to fight his way through guards to freedom.

Mubarak’s position continues to weaken, after the state-controlled Al-Ahram newspaper, Egypt’s second oldest, abandoned its support for his regime with a front page lead hailing the “nobility” of the “revolution”.

The state and all its denizens, the elder generation, the politicians and all other powers on the political stage must humble themselves and rein themselves in to understand the ambitions of the young and the dreams of this nation,” wrote editor Osama Saraya.

Even if Mubarak were to be ousted in similar fashion to his Tunisian counterpart Ben Ali, he is unlikely to go hungry – an analysis by Middle East experts published by the Guardian pegs the Egyptian President’s private wealth at US$70 billion, making him among the wealthiest people on the planet. Much of this money is reported to stashed in British and Swiss bank accounts or tied up in real estate in London, New York, Los Angeles and acres of Red Sea coast.

Meanwhile, the effect of Egyptian unrest has been felt across the region. Last week Yemeni leader of 30 years Ali Abdullah Saleh promised he would halt constitutional changes that would allow him to be president for life promised not to seek reelection, after civil society groups promised “a day of rage”.

“I will not extend my mandate and I am against hereditary rule,” Saleh said during an emergency session of parliament.

Libyan President of 42 years, Muammar al-Gaddafi, is said to be moving towards transitioning his country back to the monarchy he overthrew in a 1969 coup.

“He’s started to return property, which belonged to the late King Idris, back to the designated heirs of the king,” noted president of the International Strategic Studies Association, Greg Copley.

Tunisia, which started the domino trend after protests forced Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to flee, has been forced to call up army reservists to confront growing unrest and meet demand for democratic reforms.

Former conscripts and retired soldiers were ordered to report to military posts according to the local news agency TAP.

Gaza is meanwhile facing acute shortages of fuel and supplies as the traffic of goods through underground tunnels crossing the border to Egypt has dried up. Petrol and diesel brought in from Israel costs three times as much as that smuggled into the country, which relies on it for power during extend cuts.

The Maldives is unlikely to escape unscathed either – the country spends 25 percent of its GDP on fuel and its economy, one of the most sensitive in the world, is likely to be susceptible to even minor price fluctuations.

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Islamic Foundation alleges black magic performed in Haa Alifu Atoll to foretell election results

The Islamic Foundation of the Maldives has alleged that people on the island of Baarah in Haa Alifu Atoll practiced “black magic” to foretell the results of Local Council Elections held last week.

”A group of clairvoyants or soothsayers are said to have summoned the jinn to predict local council election results in their constituency,” said the IFM in a press statement.

”The black arts practitioners did so by constantly beating a possessed person with a traditional eakle broom while reciting a magic spell, and questioning the evil spirit believed to be speaking through the haunted person.”

The religious NGO referred to sources in the island and said the incident took place two days prior to the Local Council Elections.

”The local superstition states that jinns have the power to foretell the future, and the clairvoyants wanted it to tell the names of the candidates who would win the council vote,” the foundation said.

The Islamic Foundation said another such group of people in the island believed that the ”the party to which the first vote falls into the ballet box will win the election. So, they started queueing up for the vote just after sunset, with the hope of becoming the first person to vote in the next morning.”

The IFM said it had looked into the matter “from a religious perspective” and said the belief that demons or jinns have the power to foresee future, visiting fortunetellers, astrologers and palmists, wearing amulets or charms to ward off evil are forms of Shirk.

“The ignorant among the masses believe that Prophets possessed the power to foretell future and bring good or bad luck. However the Final Revelation, clearly states the Prophets do not have any such power. It is mentioned in the Quran that Allah instructed Prophet Mohamed to say he does not have any such power,” the Foundation said.

“Say! None in the heavens nor the earth knows the unseen except Allah..” (Surah an-Nahl 27:65)” the Islamic Foundation said on its website citing the Quran. ‘

The IFM said that Islam allows exorcism provided the practice does not involve any form of sorcery, Shirk or invocation of false deities. It is mentioned in Sunan Abu Dawud that Allah’s Messenger said, “The Last Hour will not come until some groups of my nation worship idols.”

Belief in black magic remains very common on many islands of the Maldives, despite being strictly forbidden under Islam.

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

“We will beat them up and drag them away”: transcript of Mavota’s alleged phone call

In a leaked phone conversation allegedly between Spokesperson and Deputy leader of the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) ‘Mavota’ Ibrahim Shareef and another member of DRP, a voice believed to be Shareef questions Gayoom’s support in Addu and suggested that were Gayoom’s faction to campaign there, “we will beat them up and drag them away [from Addu].”

The source of the leaked phone call, which has been aired on MNBC and DhiFM, has not been identified or its authenticity yet confirmed or denied.

Voice S: Definitely there would not be 99 percent of DRP supporters in Addu behind Maumoon.

Voice A: Just now, Shareef…

Voice S: The support for me would be much higher than that.

Voice A: Yes but just think…

Voice S: What did I say then, the result of all this will be MDP remaining in the administration…

Voice S: Istead of that [if he’s going to Addu] without having any connection with us, but with Umar Naseer and Ilham, he [Gayoom] will have to forget it. I tell you now, it would even be impossible to step on Addu without inviting us.

Voice A: What?

Voice S: We will beat them up and drag them away [from Addu].

Voice A: Zaeem? [Zaeem – literally honorary leader]

Voice S: Yes… will have to forget going to Addu during his visits [to islands].

DRP supporters who had heard the audio clip broadcast of MNBC and DhiFM gathered outside DRP’s headquarters this morning and called for Shareef and party Leader Ahmed Thasmeen Ali to resign.

Shareef then came out of DRP’s head office to address the protesters, but was attacked escorted to safety by police.

After police took Shareef away, the gathered people called on the resignation of Thasmeen. Minor confrontations between both sides of the party were reported.

Among the spectators of the incident this morning were many Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) supporters.

The Council Meeting

In a meeting of the DRP council meeting this afternoon – with Gayoom’s members noticeably absent –  the party decided to sign a coalition agreement with Hassan Saeed’s Dhivehi Qaumee Party (DQP), pledging cooperation in the 2013 presidential election, and the parliamentary and local council elections to be held in 2014.

Haveeru reported that Dr Hassan Saeed had sided with the current leader of DRP, Ahmed Thasmeen Ali.

DRP MP Abdulla Mausoom confirmed the arrangement and said that the party would soon issue a press statement regarding the agreement.

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Police evacuate Mavota Shareef from DRP headquarters after spokesperson attacked

A crowd gathered outside DRP headquarters was this morning calling for the resignation of Party Leader Ahmed Thasmeen Ali and Spokesperson Ibrahim ‘Mavota’ Shareef.

The call came in response to an audio clip allegedly of Shareef, aired on MNBC and DhiFM, in which he apparently expresses a preference for MDP over former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. Gayoom would never leave if returned to the leadership, Shareef apparently says, during a campaign trip in Addu.

Minivan News is trying to determine the authenticity of the audio with Shareef, however his phone was turned off at time of press. Thasmeen was not responding.

Police Sub-Inspector Ahmed Shiyam confirmed that a crowd gathered outside the DRP headquarters had tried to attack Shareef, “so police put him into a vehicle and took him to a safe area. He is not in police custody.”

Haveeru reports that Thasmeen and the DRP council will meet at the office shortly, however it notes that Gayoom’s members on the council – his daughter Dhunya Maumoon and former Attorney General Aishath Azima Shukoor – did not appear to be in attendance.

The DRP underwent a major factional split following the dismissal of Deputy Leader Umar Naseer by the party’s disciplinary committee, an incident which came to blows in December 2010 when Naseer and his supporters gatecrashed a DRP rally at Ghiyasuddin International School celebrating the departure of seven of President Mohamed Nasheed’s cabinet ministers on a successfully-prosecuted constitutional technicality.

Naseer claims he does not recognise his removal from the party as legitimate despite confirmation from the Elections Commission. The return of Gayoom to politics and the backing of the party’s ‘honorary leader’ consolidated support for Naseer in the party, and the two campaigned together during the local council election while Thasmeen campaigned seperately.

This mornings’s events suggest the frosty civility between the two factions in the lead-up to the election may be diminishing, as the fielding of multiple opposition candidates in many council electorates may have split the votes and needlessly handed wins to the ruling party.

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)