The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has released a statement claiming it has calculated the popular vote in last week’s local council elections as 44% MDP, 40% DRP, based on current available data.
The popular vote reflects the overall political preference of voters, and has not yet been released by the Elections Commission (EC). The MDP said it produced the figures based on data currently published by the EC on its website.
Both parties declared victory and were celebrating this week after the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) won a decisive seat majority in the local council elections, while the MDP won control of major population hubs.
If the MDP’s figures match those of the Elections Commission, when published, they would reflect a major show of faith in the ruling party – the MDP received 25 percent in the 2008 presidential election and 33 percent in the parliamentary election early following year, but there has been no impartial polling of the country’s chaotic political scene since then.
A senior MDP source insisted to Minivan News that the party’s math was sound, subject to available data from the EC.
“A 44 percent result in the local council election would show that MDP has a clear path to the presidential election in 2013,” the source claimed.
Only the preliminary ballot counts are currently available from the EC, and include the multiple votes made by islanders for both atoll and island councils (urban dwellers voted once for city councils). Given the higher population of the urban hubs that almost unanimously swung towards the MDP, the party’s four percent lead on the DRP could well be accurate. This would have to be offset against the (anecdotally) lower voter turnout in urban areas, as compared to islands – again, the EC has yet to publish the figures – and the split opposition vote in many areas due to multiple factions of the DRP competing for the same seat, sometimes on an independent ticket.
Vice President of the Elections Commission Ahmed Hassan Fayaz told Minivan News that the current Elections Commission results available were on the its website, and that ”other results have nothing to do with the EC’s results.”
The MDP statement also noted that the current results indicated that the Dhivehi Quamee Party (DQP) – the DRP’s new coalition partner as of yesterday – had won a single seat, and that leader Dr Hassan Saeed had failed to secure a seat in his home atoll, Addu.
The MDP also criticised the performance of its own coalition partner Adhaalath, claiming that its securing of 17 seats and control of just one council (Kinolhas), showed that “Maldivians will not accept the use of religion as a political weapon.”
Adhaalath Party Leader Sheikh Hussain Rasheed earlier this week praised his party’s performance, stating that “we believe that success is for to whom God grants it. And we believe that we can only serve the citizens to the extent the citizens wish us to.”
Polling benefits aside, the new layer of government introduced by the elections will cost the Maldives over US$220,000 per month.
The President of every island council will receive a salary and allowance of Rf 15,000 (US$1160), council members Rf 11,000 (US$850). The mayor of Male’ will receive Rf 45,000 (US$3500).
In addition to salaries, explained acting Finance Minister Mahmoud Razee, parliament has allocated a further Rf200 million (US$15.5 million) to office expenses – at a time when the country has a double-figure deficit, a crippling foreign exchange shortage and complete reliance on a single industry. The government has said this will come out of its existing office budget.
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"US$12 million a year in salaries and allowances, or US$220,000 per month?"
While I agree that this expense on the council is a totlly unwarranted thing, I think there's something terribly wrong with the way you are doing your math. R u saying 222,000x12 = 12,000,000?
This is another wealth distributions. This is good for the people and good for the MDP. Anni must go back to the islands and explain to the people who voted to DRP that their income is coming because of him and not because of Gayoom or Thasmeen. It was his idea to decentralize the country and this how they are getting the money. Tell the people that they represent the people even if they did not vote for MDP. Anni must learn to twist this story to his benefit. Remind the people that Gayoom was in power for 30 years and never thought of helping the people.
@Jameela.
Thats why he anni didn't include any funds for the councils in budget and the opposition had to do it.
"... the current results indicated that the Dhivehi Quamee Party (DQP) – the DRP’s new coalition partner as of yesterday – had won a single seat, ..."
I hope this is not misleading.
When was this statement made by MDP?
As far as I know, the preliminary results show that DQP had won no less than 15 seats.
"If the MDP’s figures match those of the Elections Commission, when published, they would reflect a major show of faith in the ruling party ..."
How can it be a MAJOR show of faith when the difference is only 4 percent? I think this is a very, very false impression. The ruling party, with all it advantages was able to secure only 4 percent more votes than its biggest rival. And if the votes of all the parties of the opposition are added, it will easily exceed those few votes MDP is boasting of. I think MDP will be shivering in its(?) boots now.
"“A 44 percent result in the local council election would show that MDP has a clear path to the presidential election in 2013,” the source claimed."
Another misleading statement.
The path to the election does not get muddy just because the number of votes are few. With even 1 percent votes for MDP, the path to the presidential election will still be clear.
It is the chances of successfully winning the election that is associated with the votes. And I think, 44 percent popularity is not something MDP should boast of.
MDP, I have seen, misleads the public all the time. But to have seen the same attitude from JJ, has left me a bit pzzled. Could it be a contagious disease? If so it is worrying.
The popular vote figures can be calculated in so many ways. And it is not fair from DRP side that DRP had 200 candidates less than MDP in the election and still were able to come up with this result. DRP did not contest one area in Addu and one area in Male and supported other opposition candidates in many areas which are also reasons why they got fewer votes in the popular side. Having said all that, in paper MDP has more popular votes.
Looking at the success rate of the candidates.
MDP had over 1000 candidates and they won 35%
DRP had over 800 candidates and they won 65%.
for heavens sake this is not about who won most seats.that does not translate anything. wtf.
(The MDP also criticised the performance of its own coalition partner Adhaalath, claiming that its securing of 17 seats and control of just one council (Kinolhas), showed that “Maldivians will not accept the use of religion as a political weapon.”)
its not just adalath who used religion. i think DRP used it more effectively than adalath and you see the result. So MDPs claim that people will not accept use of religion as a political weapon is not well researched.
I guess they were frightened into voting for the DRP because Maumoon said it was a pillar of islam to vote for the DRP. 😛
Statistics and lies. Now, you can manipulate statistics in many ways and you can always find an agle that suits your own particular view.
MDP may have found 4% "somewhere" in these polls, but it was clearly a bad result for MDP as a whole.
To stand a chance at the 2013 presidential election, MDP needs a LOT of work. It's clear that although the large population centres support MDP, the small islands do not. Those small islands with their populations of 100s determine the outcome of the ballots.
There must be something very wrong with the way MDP is doing things, if people vote for DRP. DRP with its historical baggage is not something that I'd wish for this country.
@Ahmed Bin Addu B Bin Subadheeb
Yes while the thought of the DRP coming to power is quite worrying.
However, the MDP have gone from about 20% of the vote to become one of the two largest parties in the country. The other parties - particularly Hassan Saeed or Gasim - is now reduced to being a junior party in a coalition of a party itself divided in the middle. Their representation in both Parliament and the council is embarassingly small.
The population centers will however play a bigger role in these elections than the islands - one council in Male' is worth more in the elections than a marginal island in Raa Atoll because ultimately its about the numbers.
I agree that more work needs to be done but its not all bad - Anni remains the most presidential person in the country at the moment and he will prevail in 2013
Counting chicks before eggs are hatched is nonsense stuff.
Here we are discussing money in millions, and if we are to have the same output that we have been having from the olden day katheebs, this is not worth it!
I think the counting will continue until 2013.