India’s diplomatic course correction averts impasse: Russia and India Report

“Indian diplomacy averted an impasse in the ties with Maldives through a course correction through past several months,” writes Indian career-diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar for the Russia & India Report.

Bhadrakumar compares recent elections in both the Maldives and Nepal, assessing their impact on India’s external relations.

“When the ‘pro-Indian’ elected president was overthrown in Male last year, Delhi took umbrage. Its fury was fuelled by the summary termination of a highly lucrative contract of an influential Indian firm for managing the Male international airport.

But Maldives pushed back and the futility of the pressure tactic compelled Delhi to rethink and change tack to an equidistant stance between the warring Maldivian political parties.

Thus, although the recent presidential election in Maldives produced a surprise outcome, Delhi could engage the new power centre with alacrity. President Abdulla Yameen accepted Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s invitation to visit Delhi for his first overseas trip as head of state.

However, as any passionate reader of Joseph Conrad would vouchsafe, island states wear a deceptively languid look. There is that certain edginess in the air. Curiously, one major decision taken by the new government in Male is to introduce Arabic language in the curriculum of Maldivian schools. The political elites have not hidden their tilt toward ‘Islamization’ of the Maldivian society.

One way of looking at it is that this is only a variant of cultural nationalism, which is sweeping over the region – India included. But then, it also carries the subtle overtone of an attempt to differentiate the island nation from the ethos of the Indian subcontinent.”

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National Movement accuses government of obstructing anniversary of GMR eviction

The National Movement has accused the government of obstructing its plans to celebrate the anniversary of the termination of the airport development contract with Indian company GMR.

The movement claims that, despite having obtained written permission from the Ministry of Housing and Infrastructure to use the Artificial Beach area last weekend, authorisation was later revoked.

Previous National Movement rallies have been held at the same location.

Since taking power last month, the current administration has launched a charm offensive in an attempt to repair strained bilateral relations with its northern neighbour. President Abdulla Yameen is scheduled to visit New Delhi later this month,with Indian media reporting the likely reopening of a much needed standby credit facility.

The self-titled National Movement consists of the religious conservative Adhaalath Party and the Civil Coalition umbrella group which claims to represent several civil society organisations.

The movement was born out of the December 23 coalition – an alliance of several political parties including the now-ruling Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), the Jumhooree Party and the Adhaalath Party, along with the Civil Coalition. The PPM later left the National Movement in December 2012, after members criticised current President – then PPM’s parliamentary group leader – Abdulla Yameen.

The group has reportedly shared a statement with local media in which it is said to have criticised the current government for inhibiting the movement’s efforts to mark the one year anniversary of “having successfully brought the Maldivians’ airport back into Maldivian hands”.

In the statement, the movement alleges that the government had given multiple warnings not to not celebrate the anniversary.

“We are deeply saddened that the current government has obstructed the joyous event of celebrating the first anniversary of freeing the Maldivian people’s airport, finally to the extent we are simply unable to hold any celebrations at all on the occasion.”

“We further believe that the actions of the government have created reason for us to believe that there is a hidden agenda behind it all,” the statement read, as quoted in local media.

The National Movement however stated that they would still be holding a celebratory event, giving Thursday as a tentative date – the group has not yet announced a venue.

Government response

Deputy Minister of Housing and Infrastructure Abdulla Muhthalib stated that the ministry had not received any requests from an entity called the ‘National Movement’.

“We did, however, get a letter from a political party seeking permission to use the Artificial Beach grounds for an event last weekend. The letter did not specify what the event will be. We did grant this permission,” he said.

“However, based on the fact that we have received complaints that people besides those we grant permission to have been using the allocated area, we decided to retract the permission and halt providing the location to anyone until after we compose guidelines on how such areas can be used. We have neither received nor rejected any requests by National Movement,” Muhthalib explained.

President’s Office Spokesperson Ibrahim Muaz Ali told Minivan News today that “it is not in this government’s policies to obstruct any citizens from demonstrating within the boundaries of law. I have spoken to media several times about these allegations against us by National Movement and I believe we have been answerable enough by now. It is pointless to talk about the matter too much anyway.”

Muaz has previously told local media that there is “no use to talk about having taken back the airport from GMR an year ago” and that the government will not support a gathering to mark the same.

Despite the PPM formerly being a member of the National Movement, Muaz alleged that the organisation “is not even a registered group, as far as I know.”

He described the matter as “an issue that arose between a Maldivian government-owned company and an Indian company”, adding that the matter has since been resolved.

GMR has taken the premature termination of its contract to a Singaporean court of arbitration where it is claiming US$1.4billion in compensation.

“I see no reason why this matter needs to be brought up and discussed again. The two governments [Maldivian and Indian goverments] are conducting several discussions in the interests of the Maldivian people. The government sees no reason why the GMR matter needs to be taken up again at a time when we are making progress with India, and we don’t support such efforts. This is, however, not to say that we will obstruct freedom of expression,” Muaz is quoted as saying.

Members of the National Movement, Adhaalath Party President Sheikh Imran Abdulla and National Unity Party Spokesperson Abbas Adil Riza had their phones switched off at the time of press.

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Week in review: November 30 – December 7

The past week has seen the administration of President Adbulla Yameen make tentative steps towards resolution of the country’s dire economic situation.

The Government of China offered the Maldives US$8.2million in grant aid for development projects. Reports also emerged in Indian media of its government being on the verge of unfreezing a credit standby facility – initiated before the recent deterioration in bilateral ties.

The New Indian Express suggested that the official announcement would be made during Yameen’s visit to India, also announced in the past seven days.

Further aid flows for climate change adaptation projects were also forthcoming, with the European Union pledging an additional €4million to the €34million given since 2009.

Solid progress on the 2014 budget continued to elude the government this week, however, with the submission of details to parliament delayed for the fourth time as the finance minister awaited further specifics about the administration’s plans.

Specific designs for the long-awaited construction of a bridge linking Malé and Hulhumalé were requested by the government, although foreign investor confidence is unlikely to have been improved by the Maldives’ failure to appear on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index for the second consecutive year.

Meanwhile, confidence in the country’s tourism industry remained undiminished at the World Travel Awards in Qatar, where the Maldives collected the prize for ‘World’s Leading Island Destination’.

Politics, police, and protecting Islam

Despite prior promises of leniency from the government, Maldivian Democratic Party MP Hamid Abdul Ghafoor was briefly imprisoned this week after the Supreme Court revoked a number of parliamentary privileges.

Hamid – who has cited parliamentary privileges to defend himself against contempt of court charges – spent just hours in Maafushi jail before the High Court overturned the Criminal Court’s six-month sentence.

Fellow MDP MP Imthiyaz Fahmy led the Parliamentary Privileges Committee in suggesting that the Supreme Court was compromising the independence of parliament.

Elsewhere in the Majlis, MPs from all sides of the political divide took to the floor of the house to support a constitutional amendment further safeguarding Islam’s position as the country’s sole religion.

The police this week recommended that the Prosecutor General’s office pursue charges against Raajje TV’s CEO and its head of news for a report criticising the Supreme Court. Police also detained an individual in relation to the arson attack that destroyed MDP-aligned Raajje TV in October.

Less progress was reported in the case of Supreme Court Judge Ali Hameed’s sex-tape allegations, with police admitting they have been unable to identify the individual widely reputed to be Hameed. The police did, however, promise that more information from abroad may yet shed light upon the issue. Local media had suggested that police investigations had been thwarted by the Criminal Court’s failure to provide the required warrants.

Retired Police Commissioner Abdulla Riyaz was honoured this week by his former colleagues prior to his move into the political arena.  Home Minister Umar Naseer used the celebrations to order police to remove any material that might incite hatred against the force.

The fostering of dissent within its own ranks was the reason given for further dismissals within the military three senior officers were dismissed, whilst 34-year veteran Lieutenant Colonel Zubair Ahmed told Raajje TV that he had been forced to retire from the MNDF.

The Defence Ministry this week threatened action against any media outlets who criticised its disciplinary procedure, subsequently receiving censure itself from the Media Council.

Finally, preparations for the January 18 local council elections continued in the past seven days, with government-aligned parties – excluding the Adhaalath Party – deciding to divide seats up amongst themselves to maximise their prospects. The opposition Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party hopes to arrest its declining fortunes going into future polls by rebranding its party color, logo and slogan.

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Condition of five Maldivians injured in India improving

The condition of five Maldivians injured in an accident while en route to Trivandrum from Agra, India is now improving reports local media.

According to local newspapers, the five Maldivians were traveling in a bus after visiting the Taj Mahal when it crashed into a gas tractor.

The Indian tour agent of the Maldivian family died in the accident.

The newspapers reported that they were all severely injured in the accident and required financial assistance to transfer them to a Trivandrum hospital in order to provide treatment under the ‘Asandha’ health insurance scheme.

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India reported to be releasing further credit to Maldives

Indian media has reported that the country will re-open its US$100million standby credit facility to the Maldives during the scheduled visit of newly elected President Abdulla Yameen later this month.

Whilst the President’s Office was unable to comment on the validity of the story, the New Indian Express has today reported that the Indian Government is expected to “unfreeze” the remaining part of the loan.

The Indian government agreed to grant the facility during an official state visit by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in 2011, in order to help the Maldives meet short-term budgetary needs.

The first installment of US$30 million was granted in October 2011, with a further installment of US$20million released in time for the early 2012 visit of President Dr Mohamed Waheed to India.

A third installment of the facility however, was delayed after tensions between the Indian and Maldivian governments rose just weeks ahead of the eviction of the Indian GMR group which had been undertaking the development of Ibrahim Nasir International Airport.

Whilst the official reason given for the delay in the disbursal of the third loan installment was described as a result of the Maldives Government’s failure to complete the required paperwork, a diplomatic source at the time suggested that perceived anti-Indian rhetoric from senior political figures could yet have a bearing on future financial assistance.

The failure to secure the third credit installment was soon followed by the Indian government calling in US$100 million worth of debt.

Despite the current governing Gulhifaivaa Coalition comprising many of the parties that made up the previous administration, President Yameen has made improved relations with India a top priority after winning the November 16 run-off election.

Yameen’s PPM suggested the termination of the GMR agreement – currently the subject of a US$1.4 billion arbitration case in Singapore – was done against its advice.

In the weeks following his assumption of office, Yameen has talked openly of the potential of Indo-Maldivian relations, whilst the Indian High Commissioner to the Maldives has called the country’s bilateral ties “privileged”.

After Yameen had written to Indian PM Singh inviting him to visit the Maldives as soon as he was able, the President’s Office announced this week that Yameen would be visiting India on his first official state visit on December 22.

Budget support

Local media has today reported that a revised budget will be sent to the Majlis today, after repeated delays required to accommodate the campaign pledges of President Yameen.

Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad – reappointed to his position under the new president – had presented a MVR 16.4 billion budget for 2014 with a projected deficit of 2.5 percent of GDP to parliament on October 30.

Yameen has expressed concern over the economic vulnerability of the Maldives and pledged to reduce state expenditure by MVR 1 billion.

“State debt is sky high. The state budget’s expenses are extremely high. Hence, we have to prioritise reducing state expenditure. I will start work very soon to reduce budget expenses,” Yameen said during his inauguration speech.

The Maldives Monetary Authorities’ (MMA) most recent quarterly review noted that Government finances had “further deteriorated in the first six months of 2013” due to a sizeable shortfall in expected revenue coupled with a marked increase in recurrent expenditure.

“These developments have resulted in a widening of the budget deficit as indicated by the large financing requirement of the government during the first six months of 2013. The difficulties in accessing long-term foreign funds to finance the budget deficit resulted in the government resorting to the Maldives Monetary Authority and other domestic sources to finance its growing deficit,” the report stated.

The Yameen administration also announced earlier this week the securing of 50 million yuan (US$8.2 million) in Chinese grant aid “for the implementation of developmental projects and the advancement of public services.”

The MMA’s November figures showed that gross international reserves had fallen in monthly terms whilst showing a slight year-on-year increase. The country was reported to have enough reserves to cover 2 and a half months’ worth of imports.

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President to visit India on December 22

After receiving and invitation from Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, President Abdulla Yameen will make an official visit to the country on December 22.

Indian media has also reported that President Yameen will be the chief guest at the convocation of the SAARC-established South Asian University (SAU) on Dec 24.

The invitation came in reply to a letter by Yameen to the prime minister in which he assured Singh of his administration’s desire for enhanced bilateral ties and urged Singh to pay an official visit to the Maldives as soon as it was mutually convenient to do so.

Since taking office, President Yameen has stressed his desire to enhance recently-strained relations between the neighbouring countries.

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No labourer permits for those who retain passports, warns immigration department

The immigration department has warned that permits allowing employers to bring expatriate workers into the country could be withheld if they are found to be forcefully retained.

Local media has reported the department as noting that the practice remains common, as does the practice of some employees demanding money before passports are released.

Such methods appeared on a list of grievances compiled by the Indian High Commission in Male’ early this year. Indian authorities said at the time that tightened restrictions over providing medical visas to Maldivians were a “signal” for the country’s government to address a number of concerns about the nation’s treatment of migrant workers.

The immigration department’s warning comes as the incoming government attempts to improve relations with the Indian government, with the Indian Prime Minister today extending an invitation to new President Abdulla Yameen.

Bangladesh recently lifted a ban on worker migration to the Maldives after a government delegation was sent to investigate allegations of fraudulent recruitment, forced labour and migrant unemployment.

The country had temporarily blocked its nationals from migrating to the Maldives in September – an action described by one key local employer as a response to decades of failure by Maldivian authorities to deal with “human trafficking” and labour management.

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Indian Prime Minister extends invitation to President Yameen

India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has invited President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom for an official visit.

The invitation comes in reply to a letter by Yameen to the prime minister in which he assured Singh of his administration’s desire for enhanced bilateral ties and urged Singh to pay an official visit to the Maldives as soon as it was mutually convenient to do so.

President’s Office Spokesperson Ibrahim Muaz Ali said Yameen has accepted the invitation, but a date has not yet been decided for the visit.

Meanwhile, the Indian High Commissioner Rajiv Shahare paid a visit on the new Vice President Dr Mohamed Jameel Ahmed, describing Indo-Maldivian ties as “privileged”.

The President’s Office noted that Jameel and Shahare took the opportunity to discuss the easing consular and visa restrictions for travelers between the two countries, as well as healthcare, defense cooperation, and human resource development.

Writing to  Singh, the President’s Office website reported Yameen as emphasising that “diverse Indo-Maldives people-to-people contact offers avenues for further cooperation”.

The Maldives’ traditionally close ties with India came under increasing strain under the previous government – of which the PPM was a prominent partner. The cancellation of a deal to develop Ibrahim Nasir International Airport in December 2012 was a particularly contentious issue.

The government’s sudden eviction of the Indian investor was quickly followed by visa restrictions and a list of 11 grievances handed to all senior Maldivian reporters by the Indian High Commission in January this year.

India has extended budget support aid to the Maldives on several occasions, most recently extending a Standby Credit Facility of US$ 100 million in 2008 and 2011 during President Mohamed Nasheed’s tenure.

Minivan News understands the Government of Maldives is currently in discussion with India to secure further budget support to plug the 2014 budget deficit.

Yameen has said the Maldives economy is in a “deep pit” and has pledged to reduce state expenditure.

During a visit to India in June, former President and PPM leader Maumoon Abdul Gayoom told the Indian PM of his disappointment that the Maldives’ relationship with India had been impacted upon by the then-government’s decision to evict GMR from the country with seven days notice.

“This was a mistake. Had he consulted all political parties, the public would not have formed the impression that corruption had taken place,” Gayoom was reported as saying in the Hindu.

The cancellation of the project is currently being investigated in a Singapore court of arbitration, with the Indian infrastructure company seeking US$1.4 billion in compensation – more than the Maldives’ annual budget.

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Turning the clock back: Frontline

“The political crisis in Maldives over the presidential run-off ends with the surprise victory of a close relative of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and the shock defeat of Mohamed Nasheed,” writes R.K. Radhakrishnan for India’s Frontline  magazine.

“Change, sometimes, seems like a closed loop. The more things appear to change, the more they remain the same. This is so very true in respect of Maldives, an archipelago nation with a population of over 300,000 people, which is normally in the news for climate change issues and its idyllic upmarket beaches.

On November 16, Maldivians queued up to elect a new President in a run-off round. The results shocked international observers. Five years after the country held its first multiparty presidential election, Maldivians chose to turn the clock back. They brought back to power a close relative of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who ruled the country with an iron hand for about three decades.

Abdullah Yaameen Abdul Gayoom, the presidential candidate of the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM), a party Gayoom founded after he returned to Maldives a few years ago, was elected to the top post, with an astonishing 51.39 per cent of the vote polled (111,203 votes). He defeated the former President and Amnesty International’s Prisoner of Conscience, Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldivian Democratic Party. Nasheed got 48.61 per cent of the votes (105,181 votes). The polling percentage, at 91.41 per cent, was unbelievably high. A total of 218,621 of the 239,165 eligible voters exercised their franchise.”

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