Tourist arrivals rose 17 percent in 2013

Tourist arrivals to the Maldives rose 17 percent in 2013 compared to the previous year, according to the latest Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) monthly economic review.

This was mainly due to the large increase in tourist arrivals from China, coupled with a slight growth in arrivals from Europe. Reflecting this, the total bednights and occupancy rate also recorded an increase during the year,” the MMA’s review stated.

The review did note, however, that the average duration of stay declined in 2013 compared with the year before.

Statistics from the tourism ministry show that 331,719 Chinese tourists visited the Maldives last year, which was a 44.5 percent increase from the previous year.

Chinese tourists accounted for 29.5 percent of all tourist arrivals in 2013.

The central bank also noted that real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was expected to “accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2014, driven mainly by the tourism sector.”

In November 2013, the finance ministry revealed that the tourism industry’s GDP growth in 2012 declined by 0.1 percent following 15.8 percent growth in 2010 and 9.2 percent in 2011.

Despite negative growth in 2012, the finance ministry estimated that the industry would have expanded 5.5 percent in 2013 and forecast a growth rate of 5.2 percent for this year.

The average duration of stay has however fallen from 8.6 days in 2009 to 6.7 days in 2012 and 6.3 days in 2013.

According to the annual tourism yearbook published by the Tourism Ministry, the average occupancy rate of all tourist establishments in 2012 was 2.5 percent below the previous year at 70.6 percent.

The Maldivian economy is largely dependent on tourism, which accounted for 28 percent of GDP on average in the past five years, and generated 38 percent of government revenue in 2012.

Meanwhile, in the fisheries industry – the second largest domestic industry – “the volume of fish exports increased by 48 percent while the earnings on fish exports rose by 14 percent” between January and November 2013 compared to the same period in 2012.

This was contributed by the increase in both the volume and earnings on fresh, chilled or frozen tuna,” the MMA report stated.

It added that fish purchases rose by 21 percent from January to September 2013 compared to the same period the previous year.

Inflation

The monthly review noted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) commodity price index increased by two percent in monthly terms during December 2013.

“This increase was due to the rise in food, metal and petroleum prices in the review period. In annual terms the IMF commodity price index increased by one percent, contributed by the increase in petroleum prices which off set the price declines in food and metal.The price of crude oil increased by three percent in monthly terms during December 2013, while prices rose by six percent in annual terms,” the review stated.

The rate of inflation in the capital Malé meanwhile decreased to 3.1 percent in December 2013, the MMA revealed, which was “largely due to the fall in fish prices.”

“Similarly, the rate of inflation in Male’ decelerated  marginally in monthly terms during December 2013, which was also due to the fall in fish prices,” the review stated.

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Maldives monthly inflation increases by 0.12 percent

Monthly inflation in the Maldives has increased by 0.12 percent according to statistics from the Department of National Planning.

Figures show that the consumer price index – a measure showing changes in the price level of consumer goods – saw an overall rise of 0.12 percent in January 2013, compared to 0.39 percent in December 2012, local media reported.

In January, inflation in the education sector rose by 4.58 percent, while an increase of 2.12 percent inflation was attributed to the health sector.

The most significant price falls recorded in January were from information processing equipment and vegetables, a reduction of 8.65 percent and 2.96 percent respectively.

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Inflation rate increases 10.88 percent during 2012

Statistics from the Department of National Planning have indicated that inflation in the Maldives rose by 10.88 percent during 2012, according to local media reports.

Department director General Mariyam Niyaf explained the increase was the result of prices in commodities changing.

Local newspaper Haveeru has reported that the statistics indicated the cost of fish has increased by 50.77 percent nationwide, while food and beverage catering had risen by 10.85 percent over the twelve month period.

“All assessments show that the prices are rising. We believe that the main reason for it could be the rise in price of vegetables to 8.8 percent. Fish prices are also up 2.8 percent, Haveeru quoted Niyaf as saying.

Meanwhile, statistics indicate the inflation rate for furniture, household items, air transportation, as well as tools and equipment have slightly decreased.

In August 2012, an increased inflation rate was attributed to changes in the dollar, currently pegged to the rufiyaa within a 20 percent range of MVR 12.85.

In real terms, the rate has remained fixed at the maximum limit of MVR 15.42 and remains non-exchangeable, forcing importers to rely on inconsistent black market dollar exchanges of up to MVR 17-18.

In April 2011, then-Finance Minister Ahmed Inaz explained that the government decided to change the fixed exchange rate to a “managed float” to shape government policy towards increasing the value of the rufiyaa and ultimately bring the exchange rate down to MVR 10 – an oft-repeated pledge of former President Mohamed Nasheed.

The worsening balance of payments deficit could not be plugged without allowing the market to set the exchange rate, Inaz said at the time, adding that through lowering the fiscal deficit and spurring private sector job growth, “a path would open up for us to reach the lower band (MVR 10.28).”

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Maldives hopes “global slowdown” will bolster rufiya

Although the Maldives’ economy expanded in October, higher food and transport costs combined with the depreciating rufiyaa has bloated inflation rates to 8.3 percent, a CARE Maldives report has shown.

“Inflation during the period was mostly influenced by food index owing to the increase in prices of both fish (41.6%) and other food items (11.19%) followed by the increase in the transportation costs,” states the report.

“But this is not singular for this economy as rising prices have been witnessed across the globe,” the report contends.

Quoting a “global slowdown” in economic activity, the report suggested that international commodity prices are due to fall in coming months. The drop could temper the Maldives’ rising prices.

The recently-implemented Goods and Services Tax (GST) caused many Maldivians to note a price hike with anxiety. However, the President assured the people that further reforms scheduled for January 2012 would temper the new rates.

CARE Maldives suggested that a drop in international commodity prices would also reverse the widening trade deficit and declining reserves of foreign currency. Gross international reserves declined by approximately US$27 million between December 2010 and September 2011.

Statistics show an increase of US$33.2 million in reserves to date compared with August 2010, the report claims.

CARE estimates that the fiscal deficit will remain at 11 percent of the GDP; total revenue is expected to increase from 23 percent of GDP to 29 percent by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, total expenditure continues to surpass revenue. Records indicate a four percent increase from 37 percent of GDP in 2010 to 41 percent in 2011, primarily due to growing government salaries.

“The increase in expenditure mainly reflects the restoration of wages of government employees to the levels prior to 2009. The government has however taken some steps in terms of rationalisation of manpower. The overall fiscal deficit is estimated to remain at 11 percent of GDP.”

Approximately ten percent of the Maldivian workforce is employed by the government, an ungainly figure that has been targeted as a key hemorrhage point in the government’s budget. The Finance Ministry recently asked government institutions to curb job creation and new hires.

Earlier this month, President Mohamed Nasheed said the government aimed to bring the fiscal deficit down to a single digit number.

“Government expenditure has been substantially reduced in a number of different areas. For this year, we forecast a budget deficit of 11 percent. We have noted now that it has been reduced by three or four points,” he said.

CARE Maldives summarized its report by criticising the growing inflation rate and trade deficit, but praised government policies that target these issues.

“The progressive policy measures taken by the government especially on the exchange rate combined with declining commodity prices globally would help to reverse these trends.”

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Inflation in Male’ reaches nearly 10 percent: NPD

Inflation reached nearly 9.94 percent in Male’ in August compared to the same period last year, according to statistics from the National Planning Department, driven largely by increases in the price of fish.

According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, the price of fish rose 47 percent, followed by tobacco and betel (25 percent). Food prices rose 17 percent overall.

Skipjack tuna prices declined sharply in August, but other tunas, smoked fish and reef fish prices increased by more than 90 percent since July 2011. Local chili prices increased by 60 percent.

The change in the price of fish was the main factor behind the rise in inflation over the past year, CPI statistics show.

Recreation, culture, and housing equipment had a reverse effect on inflation annually with an average decrease of 0.37 percent.

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“Prices of goods have been a lie”, says President Nasheed

Extract from a speech given by President Mohamed Nasheed at Sunday night’s Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) rally, concerning the state of the economy.

Our nation remains a nation, as I often say, because our ancestors went fishing, collected cowries, climbed palm trees, constructed boats, built resorts and operated them. Our nation remains a nation not just because rulers ruled and judges judged. Our nation remains a nation because workers have laboured.

The rights of Maldivian workers and various benefits are not being spoken about in this country today for the first time. In the 1700s, Judge Hassan Thajudheen forbids Maldivians from working without remuneration. From that day onward, Maldivian workers from day to day have been noting their rights, and their responsibilities as well, to the present day.

In our country, if we want to bring the labour market to the right path, we have to look at or consider not just the worker. I always say, to do something, you have to do something else. After continually doing that, when what we envisioned has been reached, then what we want will have been sustainably achieved.

Prices of goods are not lowered with an army officer in front of the shop. To bring down prices, we have to build a good, strong economy. We have to change our economy into the shape of a strong economy of a middle-income country.

This was not the case yesterday. Most of the goods we sell in this country are imported. We pay for it in dollars. When we don’t know the value of the dollar – that is the goods in the market were bought with dollars and we don’t know its value – there is not a single way for us to know the value of the goods we have bought. Therefore, there’s no way we can know anything.

To build an economy on that basis and to consider it a sound economy is a mockery. It is not something I can do. I too know, [MDP MP] Alhan has said very clearly, we can keep building and building and building debt. The law very clearly gives me the discretion to print money. For the first three months after I assumed office, at the end of every month I was brought a piece of paper, on it was written that I had printed Rf200 million (US$16 million).

With every Rf 200 million, the value of the rufiyaa kept falling. When we took over the government, inflation was at 12 percent. [Prices] were rising at a rate of Rf12 each passing month. Today [inflation] is 0.65.

When prices soared to the highest, the price of a can of powdered milk rose by Rf 4 – two children will drink from one can of milk for a month. How much of an increase in rufiyaa per day has that become for us? I too know the prices of goods in the country. I do go into shops. I know that the price of a small coconut is Rf5 in Filledhoo, but Rf10 in Male’.

We do not lack information. Nor do we lack a course of action. And I am not unaware of what we’re doing and what we are about to do. Leaders of nations are anxious and cowardly when it comes to making changes to the country’s monetary and economic system. They remain hesitant about making changes to salaries, hesitant about making changes to taxation. They remain anxious and fearful of inflation.

However, in truth it is not us who have to suffer from that cowardice today, but our children tomorrow. The question before us today is who should we treat better? The woman we are married to now or our young children? I know it is a difficult question.

Everything we have done in our lives has been for our children. We build harbours for our children; we build homes and sewerage systems for our children. We give pensions as well, for our children.

Today prices of goods have gone up, too, for our children.

The straight value of the dollar to the rufiyaa is not a number I saw in a dream one day and took to heart. The price of a dollar set in 2001 was not based on a transaction between rufiyaa and US dollars. The price of a dollar has been set today based on market transactions. Today you are seeing straight the true price of the goods at market. It is not that prices have not gone up, you have found out the price! What was written before was a lie. It was not a price. It is a picture that rulers have showed you as a price. Our children and children’s children are being destroyed by the seduction of that picture.

Do we want the present or the future? This party was formed because we said ‘we want the future, today is done, the sun has set, what we can win is tomorrow.’ There is no way we can get today. We have to reach, too, for tomorrow.

Most workers in this country are fishermen. 44 percent of the workforce are fishermen. When the value of the dollar is low, its unfairness is felt most by fishermen. The fish they catch is sold out of the country. When the export price improves, the [purchasing] price improves for them. Because the value of dollars has gone up, the income of most workers in the country has gone up exponentially. It has gone up!

I have just come back from Thinadhoo. I went to Kolamafushi too. I know what’s happening in Ihavandhoo and Hoarafushi as well. Maldivian fishermen are today selling a kilo of raw fish for Rf16.50. That is not a price that they would have ever imagined before. A kilo of raw fish for Rf16.50. How much is a cupful of rice? How many cupfuls of rice can you get today for one handharu fish?

I would say the Maldives has not seen any more prosperous times than this.

The second [main source of employment] for workers in the country is in the tourism industry. The service charge in that business is paid in dollars, you know. On April 11, the income of workers in that sector has gone up 20 percent.

About 20 to 25 percent of the workforce in the Maldives is employed by the government. For them, it has become a little bit difficult. Like I said, a Rf4 [increase] from a can of powdered milk, for two children to drink for a month. Total monthly household expenses have gone up by Rf300 or Rf400 for a secretary, for a lawyer, for a labourer. To plug that gap, we must do what we have to do.

The government’s monetary and economic policy is now being implemented. We are now making the changes necessary to instil the characteristics of a middle-income country in our economy. An administrative framework for taxation has been established. A 3.5 percent GST is being levied on tourism services.

The government aim is to completely eliminate import duties beginning on January 1, 2012, for all children’s food, all foodstuff, pens, pencils and paper. We are working towards that end. It will be done on January 1, 2012.

In order to do it, the state needs an additional Rf1.3 billion. Today our budget forecast is Rf2.3 billion as duties. The government is giving up that duty, but while doing so, we have decided to ask the honourable members of the People’s Majlis to increase the tourism GST from 3.5 percent to 5 percent and introduce a 3.5 GST for other businesses.

If we wish to change our economy, we have to make these courageous changes. There is one additional tax. That is, the income tax. It will hurt the most there. We plan to take an income tax from those who earn above Rf30,000 a month. About Rf30 a month. When that amount is paid to the government as income tax, then the whole cycle of the economy will, God willing, become stable – this is where we see ‘The Other Maldives.’

That is where the value of the dollar will be brought down to the level we want and the price of goods and services will fall.

Our task is very clear to me. I know that, God willing, our efforts will bear fruit. This morning, among the changes to be made to the economy, I noted a special point. A lot of workers in the country are foreigners. Most of the time, businesses employ them because they work for cheaper rates. For work done in this country, [a person] should be able to live an ordinary life in this country, whether it is a foreigner or a Maldivian.

The government plans to determine what the minimum wage paid to a worker should be. Here or abroad, when that is paid to workers, we believe job opportunities will not be lacking for Maldivians.

We can bring our country to the right path. I know that there are many people who find what I have to say difficult to hear. But I say repeatedly, I am not someone who will squander our children’s future. We took over government to realise the hopes of the Maldivian people – to establish a system of good governance for the people.

We do not arrest people. We do not torture people. This government will not pillory, handcuff, torture or chain anyone. We talk to the people through verbal interactions, not through fear and intimidation. The Maldives is maturing into a full democracy. The biggest secret of our success is the many citizens of this country fighting for freedom and hoping for better days.

Before concluding, I would tell everyone here not to worry at all. Some nights, they might be squatting at the Chandanee Magu intersection. Other nights, leaning against a door somewhere. We must not be concerned and worried about it. What happened last night was very unfortunate. I didn’t know that protest was going on last night even when I slept.

What I have to say [to the demonstrators] is that our resolve will not be shaken. Neither this party nor I will be shaken. Our policies won’t budge either. God willing, in Alhan’s words, we are going to ‘The Other Maldives’ at maximum.

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GDP rebased to 2003 prices

The base period for measuring real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or national productivity of the Maldives has been updated from 1995 to 2003, the Department of National Planning revealed this week.

Real GDP is an inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of goods and services produced within a country in a given year expressed in base-year prices.

“Changing the base period to a more recent year improves the accuracy of GDP estimates,” reads a press statement by the department. “Internationally, regularly changing the base period is encouraged. In most countries GDP is rebased once every five or ten years. Maldives’ GDP has been rebased after an eight year period.”

With the change in the base period, real GDP in 2011 is now calculated at Rf21,123 million while GDP per capita rises to Rf4,061, an increase of Rf1,217 from previous estimates.

“Among the reasons for the difference, apart from richer information used to calculate GDP, include changes to methodology,” the statement explains.

A “supply and use table” based on all transactions that occurred in 2003 was employed as a benchmark for rebasing GDP.

“In the rebased series extensive use was made of new available data, including annual accounts, government budget details, survey data, and price and unit value indices. The rebasing exercise took approximately three years to complete,” reads a report by the department.

Based on the 2003 series, it notes, real GDP on average grew 7.9 percent each year during the past decade, compared to 5.8 percent under the 1995 series.

Inflation

According to the last monthly economic review by the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA), the pace of GDP growth in 2011 is projected at 4 percent.

Tourist arrivals registered a 15 percent increase in the first two months of 2011 compared to the same period last year while fish catch showed growth of 31 percent from 2010.

Increase in food prices meanwhile contributed to half of inflation in February 2011.

According to the planning department, the consumer price index (CPI) for Male’ last month rose by 5.6 percent compared to March 2010.

Compared to the previous year, the highest inflation was recorded for education with 23 percent – driven by a 42 percent increase in school fees – followed by fish products, which rose by 14 percent.

Food items such as coconut, green chili, watermelon, chicken sausage and oranges, showed a price increase between 25 percent to 70 percent.

However, the monthly inflation rate was low at 1.30 percent and showed deflation of 0.07 percent excluding fish.

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