Tag: monthly economic review

Treasury bills and bonds rise to MVR17.6 billion, MMA reveals

The Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) has revealed that the outstanding payments for treasury bills and bonds had risen to MVR17.6 billion at the end of 2014.

According to the Monthly Economic Review of December 2014, published yesterday (February 3), stocks of government securities comprising T- bills and T-bonds increased 22 percent and 55 percent, respectively, comparing monthly and yearly terms.

“As for the outstanding amount of T-bonds, it increased significantly in both monthly and annual terms and reached MVR6.4 billion compared to MVR3.1 billion recorded in November 2014,” the review stated.

The MMA’s economic review revealed that 103,744 tourists arrived in the Maldives in December 2014, which is 1 percent lower than the arrivals of the same period in 2013, due to the “decline in arrivals from Asia and Europe”, but an increase of 16 percent compared to November 2014.

Among Asian countries, China contributed the most tourists, with 363,000 of the 1.2 million visitors in 2014 – a year-on-year rise of 9.6 percent.

It was also noted that the occupancy rate of the Maldivian tourism industry as a whole decreased by two percent, from 76 percent in December 2013  to 74 percent in December 2014 due to the decrease in total bed nights by 3 percent, and the average duration of stay to 6 days.

Comparison of figures from November and December of 2014 suggest that there was a 12 percent increase in international reserves and a 17 percent increase in state revenue, leaving international reserves at US$614.7 million by the end of last year.

Reserves held at the end of November equated to 3.3 months of imports, compared to 2.3 months recorded at the end of November 2013, said the MMA.

“The increase in total revenue during December 2014 was largely due to a 32% growth in tax revenue (mainly contributed by the increase in T-GST receipts),” stated the monthly review.

Trade balance worsened by 42 percent in December 2014 compared to corresponding the same period in 2013, as imports rose by 34 percent while exports only increased by 11 percent.

“The growth in imports was mainly due to the increase in imports of transport equipment, while the growth in exports can be attributed to the rise in re-exports”.

According to a statement from Maldives Customs Services on January 14, imported goods in 2014 amounted to MVR30.7 billion – a 22 percent increase compared to 2013.

Customs figures also showed that the decline in exports saw the total value of goods leaving the Maldives in 2014 valued at MVR2.24 billion, compared with MVR2.56 billion in 2013.

(PICTURE: MMA MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW – JANUARY 2015)


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Government expenditure rose 58 percent in June, reveals MMA

Government spending in June rose 58 percent compared to the same period in 2013, the Maldives Monetary Authority’s (MMA) monthly economic review for July 2014 has revealed.

Total expenditure, excluding net lending, “amounted to MVR1.6 billion (US$103 million) in June 2014,” stated the report released on Sunday (August 31).

Total government revenue, excluding grants, meanwhile rose four percent in annual terms and reached MVR0.9 billion (US$58 million).

“The increase in total revenue during June 2014 was largely due to the 57 percent growth in import duty and the 9 percent increase in total goods and services tax,” the central bank explained.

“Meanwhile, non-tax revenue registered a decline owing to the 18 percent decline in resort lease rent. As for the increase in expenditure, it was mainly due to the 30 percent increase in current expenditure.”

Budget deficit

In early August, Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad revealed that the government was facing “great difficulty in managing the budget deficit” due to shortfalls in revenue.

The ballooning budget deficit – which Jihad warned could reach MVR4 billion (US$260 million) or 10.6 percent of GDP – could affect the government’s ability to pay civil servants, he said.

A fiscal deficit of MVR1.3 million (US$84,306) had been projected in the record MVR17.96 billion (US$1.1 billion) budget approved by parliament.

The budget was inclusive of proposed revenue raising measures – many of which had failed to materialise during the previous administration – amounting to MVR3.4 billion (US$220 million), or 19 percent of the budget.

“Expenses keep on increasing, even as we don’t receive any revenue. We did not get the expected revenue this year either,” Jihad said last month.

Despite parliament passing the measures in February – including tax and import duty hikes – Jihad predicted at the time that the anticipated revenue might not be realised in full due to compromises.

“We try to make regular salary payments even if we have to take loans in order to do so,” Jihad said.

The monthly review revealed that the total outstanding stock of government securities – treasury bills and bonds – increased 18 percent in July compared to the corresponding period last year, reaching MVR13.7 billion (US$888 million).

“The annual growth in government securities was contributed by the increase in the amount of T-bills issued by the government to manage its growing cash flow requirements,” the review explained.

The MMA had previously warned that shortfalls in revenue and overruns in expenditure could jeopardise the country’s debt sustainability.

In May, MMA Governor Dr Azeema Adam called for “bold decisions” to ensure macroeconomic stability by reducing expenditure – “especially the untargeted subsidies” – and increasing revenue.

Tourism, fisheries and inflation

Tourist arrivals in July increased 20 percent from the previous month and 14 percent compared to July 2013, reaching 100,191 visitors, the review noted.

While bednights rose by nine percent in annual terms, the report noted that average duration of stay declined from 6.0 days in July last year to 5.7 days this year.

“With the increase in bednights, the occupancy rate also rose to 69 percent in July 2014 from 66 percent in the same period last year,” the review stated.

Fish purchases meanwhile declined by 44 percent to 2,124.7 metric tonnes compared to July 2013, the report revealed.

While the volume of fish exports fell by 54 percent, earnings on fish exports declined by 41 percent, which was “contributed mainly by the fall in export of frozen yellow fin tuna.”

The rate of inflation in the capital decreased to 2.4 percent from 3.5 percent in July 2013 and 3.6 percent the previous year, the review found, which was due to “the slower growth of food prices, especially fish, and the moderation in the growth in prices charged for rent and health services.”

The review noted that the trade deficit widened by 38 percent in July compared to the same period last year “due to the 27 percent increase in imports and the 34 percent decline in exports.”

Gross international reserves rose four percent from the previous month and 42 percent in annual terms, the review stated, amounting to US$497.6 million at the end of July.

“This mainly reflects the temporary increase in foreign currency transfers by the commercial banks in the review period,” the central bank explained.

“As for reserves in terms of months of imports, it also increased in both monthly and annual terms and stood at 3.2 months during the review month.”

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Tourist arrivals increase 16 percent in April

Tourist arrivals in April increased 16 percent in annual terms, reaching 105,309 guests during the month, but declined marginally compared to March, according to the Maldives Monetary Authority’s (MMA) latest monthly economic review.

A total of 105,560 tourist arrivals were recorded during the previous month.

“The annual increase in arrival was contributed by the increase in the number of arrivals from Asia and Europe,” the review stated.

“In April 2014, total bednights rose by nine percent in annual terms while the average duration of stay declined by six percent. As for the occupancy rate, it increased to 80 percent in April 2014 from 75 percent in April 2013, as the impact of the increase in bednights was greater than the increase in operational bed capacity of the industry during the review month.”

The central bank had explained in its monthly review for March that the annual increase in tourist arrivals was due to the rise in the number of Chinese tourists, “which offset the decline in arrivals from Europe.”

According to statistics from the Tourism Ministry for the first quarter of 2014, Europe retained the largest market share despite the continuing growth of the Chinese market, accounting for of 51.3 percent of all arrivals to the Maldives.

Asia and the Pacific recorded a growth rate of 24.4 percent at the end of first quarter, bringing in an additional 26,606 tourists to reach a total of 135,839.

The region accounted for 42.2 percent of arrivals to the Maldives at the end of first quarter of 2014.

The Chinese market also expanded by 24 percent with an additional 16,960 tourists compared with the same period of 2013.

A total of 331,719 Chinese tourists visited the Maldives last year, which was a 44.5 percent increase from the previous year.

Chinese tourists accounted for 29.5 percent of all tourist arrivals in 2013.

The Maldivian economy is largely dependent on tourism, which accounted for 28 percent of GDP on average in the past five years, and generated 38 percent of government revenue in 2012.

Real GDP growth is meanwhile expected to accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2014, “driven mainly by the tourism sector” while “economic activity is also expected to be spurred by the government budgeted expenditure of MVR16.4 billion.”

Inflation

The rate of inflation in the capital Malé – measured by the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) – reached 2.6 percent in April, up from 2.3 percent the previous month.

The inflation rate in February 2014 was 3.4 percent.

“This was largely contributed by the pick up in the growth of food prices, especially fish, and also due to the moderate growth in rent prices and cost of health services,” the review explained.

“On monthly terms, the rate of inflation increased from -0.5 percent in March 2014 to 0.3 percent in April 2014, which was mainly due to the growth in fish prices.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) commodity price index meanwhile registered an increase of one percent in monthly terms and three percent in annual terms in April.

“The monthly increase was mainly due to the increase in prices of petroleum, food and metal prices. As for the annual increase, it was due to the increase in food and petroleum prices as metal prices fell during the review period.”

“The price of crude oil increased by one percent in monthly terms and by six percent in annual terms to US$104.9 per barrel at the end of April 2014,” the review stated.

Gross international reserves meanwhile grew by 24 percent in April compared to the same period last year, reaching US$434.8 million by the end of the month. The gross reserves however declined by 13 percent in April in monthly terms.

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Tourist arrivals rose six percent in February

Tourist arrivals in February increased by five percent from the previous month and six percent in annual terms, according to the Maldives Monetary Authority’s (MMA) latest monthly economic review.

“The annual increase was due to the rise in the number of arrivals from Asia and Europe,” the central bank’s monthly report noted.

While total bed nights in February rose five percent compared to the same period last year, the occupancy rate rose three percent from February 2013 to 89 percent this year.

The average duration of stay however “declined marginally in annual terms during the review period,” the report stated.

The MMA had previously revealed that tourist arrivals rose 17 percent in 2013 compared to the previous year “mainly due to the large increase in tourist arrivals from China, coupled with a slight growth in arrivals from Europe.”

Statistics from the Tourism Ministry show that 331,719 Chinese tourists visited the Maldives last year, which was a 44.5 percent increase from the previous year.

Chinese tourists accounted for 29.5 percent of all tourist arrivals in 2013.

In November 2013, the Finance Ministry revealed that the tourism industry’s GDP growth in 2012 declined by 0.1 percent following 15.8 percent growth in 2010 and 9.2 percent in 2011.

Despite negative growth in 2012, the Finance Ministry estimated that the industry would have expanded 5.5 percent in 2013 and forecast a growth rate of 5.2 percent for this year.

The average duration of stay has however fallen from 8.6 days in 2009 to 6.7 days in 2012, and 6.3 days in 2013.

According to the annual tourism yearbook published by the Tourism Ministry, the average occupancy rate of all tourist establishments in 2012 was 2.5 percent below the previous year at 70.6 percent.

The Maldivian economy is largely dependent on tourism, which accounted for 28 percent of GDP on average in the past five years, and generated 38 percent of government revenue in 2012.

Meanwhile, in the second largest industry, the volume of fish exports increased by nine percent in February compared to the previous year “largely contributed by the increase in the volume of fresh, chilled or frozen tuna exports.”

“However, earnings from fish exports declined by 25 percent during the same period, due to the fall in both the volume and earnings from canned or pouched tuna exports,” the review revealed.

“Additionally, earnings from yellow fin tuna exports also declined during this period compared to 2013.”

The rate of inflation – measured by the annual percentage change in the consumer price index in Malé – rose to 3.4 percent in February from 2.6 percent in January.

“This was largely due to the increase in fish prices,” the report explained.

“Similarly, the rate of inflation increased in monthly terms during February 2014, which was also due to the rise in fish prices.”

Public finance

The economic review noted that government expenditure “more than doubled” in January to MVR1.9 billion compared to the same period last year.

Total revenue fell by 11 percent to MVR1 billion “largely due to the 27 percent decline in business profit tax (BPT) [receipts].”

“Additionally, non-tax revenue also fell, owing to the significant decline in resort lease rent. As for the increase in expenditure, it was mainly due to the increase in subsidy payments,” the report stated.

As a result of “increased investments in T-bills by commercial banks, other financial corporations and public non-financial corporations,” the review noted that the total outstanding stock of government securities – treasury bills and bonds – rose nine percent in annual terms and 10 percent in monthly terms during February.

The trade deficit meanwhile narrowed by 29 percent during February compared to the previous year.

“This was due to the significant decline of 26 percent in imports which off set the 16 percent decline in exports. The decline in imports was contributed by the fall in petroleum products,” the report explained.

“Gross international reserves increased in both monthly and annual terms by 2 percent and 13 percent respectively and reached US$391.1 million at the end of February 2014. Reserves in terms of months of imports also rose in both monthly and annual terms to 2.7 months at the end of the same period.”

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Tourist arrivals rose 17 percent in 2013

Tourist arrivals to the Maldives rose 17 percent in 2013 compared to the previous year, according to the latest Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) monthly economic review.

“This was mainly due to the large increase in tourist arrivals from China, coupled with a slight growth in arrivals from Europe. Reflecting this, the total bednights and occupancy rate also recorded an increase during the year,” the MMA’s review stated.

The review did note, however, that the average duration of stay declined in 2013 compared with the year before.

Statistics from the tourism ministry show that 331,719 Chinese tourists visited the Maldives last year, which was a 44.5 percent increase from the previous year.

Chinese tourists accounted for 29.5 percent of all tourist arrivals in 2013.

The central bank also noted that real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was expected to “accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2014, driven mainly by the tourism sector.”

In November 2013, the finance ministry revealed that the tourism industry’s GDP growth in 2012 declined by 0.1 percent following 15.8 percent growth in 2010 and 9.2 percent in 2011.

Despite negative growth in 2012, the finance ministry estimated that the industry would have expanded 5.5 percent in 2013 and forecast a growth rate of 5.2 percent for this year.

The average duration of stay has however fallen from 8.6 days in 2009 to 6.7 days in 2012 and 6.3 days in 2013.

According to the annual tourism yearbook published by the Tourism Ministry, the average occupancy rate of all tourist establishments in 2012 was 2.5 percent below the previous year at 70.6 percent.

The Maldivian economy is largely dependent on tourism, which accounted for 28 percent of GDP on average in the past five years, and generated 38 percent of government revenue in 2012.

Meanwhile, in the fisheries industry – the second largest domestic industry – “the volume of fish exports increased by 48 percent while the earnings on fish exports rose by 14 percent” between January and November 2013 compared to the same period in 2012.

“This was contributed by the increase in both the volume and earnings on fresh, chilled or frozen tuna,” the MMA report stated.

It added that fish purchases rose by 21 percent from January to September 2013 compared to the same period the previous year.

Inflation

The monthly review noted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) commodity price index increased by two percent in monthly terms during December 2013.

“This increase was due to the rise in food, metal and petroleum prices in the review period. In annual terms the IMF commodity price index increased by one percent, contributed by the increase in petroleum prices which off set the price declines in food and metal.The price of crude oil increased by three percent in monthly terms during December 2013, while prices rose by six percent in annual terms,” the review stated.

The rate of inflation in the capital Malé meanwhile decreased to 3.1 percent in December 2013, the MMA revealed, which was “largely due to the fall in fish prices.”

“Similarly, the rate of inflation in Male’ decelerated  marginally in monthly terms during December 2013, which was also due to the fall in fish prices,” the review stated.

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