The ‘long wait’ seems to be nearly over for Maldivian politicians, the government and friends of the Indian Ocean archipelago. The expanded Commission of National Inquiry (CNI) has since reiterated its decision to come out with the findings on the circumstances leading to the resignation of President Mohammed Nasheed on February 7, by the extended deadline of August-end.
Whatever the finding, its presentation can expected to be followed by high drama, straining the infant democracy all over again, if the stakeholders refuse to the acknowledge their contribution and accept the CNI Report in word and spirit.
For his part, President Nasheed has since led a delegation of his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) to the Indian capital of New Delhi and the Sri Lankan capital. The party seems to be coming round to the view that the two neighbours would matter the most in forming the international opinion on the CNI Report, nearer home, too, than the western nations, many of whom had backed him openly when he resigned but have not moved forward since as the MDP might have expected.
In Male’, after the Delhi visit, President Nasheed outlined the party’s options and propositions on the CNI findings. The MDP would want him reinstated if the report endorsed its conspiracy theory, early presidential polls in case of an unclear verdict, and elections when due by November 2012, if the CNI found no substance in the party’s argument.
The toughest decision for the MDP, or any other party in the country, would be to decide on an unclear verdict as the possibilities are many and varied.
The most comprehensive of an ‘unclear verdict’ could mean that the CNI finds no substance in the MDP argument about a plot, but still finds evidence of indiscipline in sections of the Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) and the Maldivian Police Service, punishable through the due processes.
However, all assumptions of every kind are based on the premise that the CNI could come up with a unanimous finding, or a majority verdict. Given the complexity of the situation, then and now, it is not unlikely that individual CNI members could come up with varied findings, based on their perceptions and understanding of the facts collated and evidence recorded.
Such a course could mean opening the Pandora’s Box of competing and at times conflicting arguments all over again. The question would then be raised if the CNI report would be taken up to the Supreme Court and, if its constitutionality too would be challenged at that late hour. There is also nothing in the Constitution that could force incumbent President Waheed Hassan to resign from office, if the CNI report endorsed the ‘plot’ theory but does not find any role for him, as suggested by some MDP leaders early on.
Even if the CNI report were to find President Waheed, or any other on the political side of the government, guilty of conspiring to overthrow his predecessor, there is nothing in the law to reverse the politico-constitutional reality of his incumbency and possible continuity until the time elections became otherwise due. It is in this context, the MDP’s neighbourhood visit assumes significance. The idea seems to bring moral pressure on President Waheed and political parties extending political and parliamentary support to him since his assuming office.
Among the parties in the Government comprising in turn a collective majority in the 77-member Parliament, only the Dhivehi Rayyathunge Party (DRP), founded by former President Maumoon Gayoom and now led by his one-time running-mate, Ahmed Thasmeen Ali, is committed to early polls in case of a positive finding on the conspiracy theory. The breakaway Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), also founded by President Gayoom, has other ideas on the subject.
Talking to newsmen after speaking before the CNI panel a fortnight back, President Gayoom said that the party would not accept the CNI findings if it backed the conspiracy theory. More recently, Defence Minister Nazim, identified with the PPM in a way, has declared that the government would take no action against personnel of the armed forces if the CNI found any of them guilty of indiscipline. There is already the possibility of such conflicting notions leading to contradictions and confrontation when the CNI report is out.
Maldives cannot afford political instability, which has consequences for the nation in more ways than one. The immediate concern would be on tourism-driven economy front, but continued instability could act and react in ways that the government and political party leaders of the country cannot perceive now, or if and when they begin unfolding.
It may be a good idea for the government parties to formulate their strategy early on, and come up with a joint commitment like the MDP. That could throw some clarity about the emerging situation, but not much by way of resolving the continuing political deadlock which has greater consequences for the nation than a presidential poll — conducted now or a year later.
All comment pieces are the sole view of the author and do not reflect the editorial policy of Minivan News. If you would like to write an opinion piece, please send proposals to [email protected]
The author is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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