Comment: Nasheed’s messy democratic revolution

Before we go to the ballot box again, we must understand why the first elected government was so short-lived. Some point to Nasheed’s activist personality, others to Gayoom’s control over the judiciary, and many cite political opponents’ impatience to attain power. All these highlight the dominance of personalities in our political landscape, and the lack of institutionalism in political behavior and state affairs. One underlying factor, that has received little attention in the public domain, but is emerging as Waheed’s ministers dissect Nasheed’s policies, is the economy.

Incumbents generally avoid talking about sovereign debt, budget deficits, and budget cuts, unless they are criticising their opponent’s budget in a campaign trail. And the few times that a sitting president talks about his own budget, it is a glossed over version of how well the economy is doing, how the GDP will double in the coming year, how inflation is expected to fall, and how food and fuel prices will drop to affordable levels. The electorate is usually unaware of how serious the budget deficit is, and ignorant of the perplexities involved in budget cuts under a democratic government. So it is no surprise that the electorate judges its government unfairly when it comes to economic management. Most accept the hollow promises, and expect results, but governments that are strapped for cash, more often than not, cannot deliver.

This poses big problems for a developing country struggling to implement democracy. First, the pressure on incumbents to deliver in times of deficits threatens democratic institutionalisation. Nasheed, who was up for re-election, tried to deliver at any cost, and chose to bypass democratic practices to achieve quick results. Take for example the airport lease. To meet budget needs, Nasheed chose the bidder who offered the largest sum up front, not the bidder with the best plan. When the airport board resigned, he put together a new board overnight to force the deal amidst allegations of foul play. The opposition was no doubt disloyal and irresponsible under Nasheed, and attempted to block and discredit his administration on all fronts. Nasheed tackled these problems by choosing to interpret laws and regulations in his favor, which meant there was little conformity in the state of affairs. Alas, the process of democratic institutionalization was nipped in the bud.

But the deeper problem for democracy in Maldives is not this.

Corrupt practices, and the dominance of personalities over institutions are merely manifestations of a problem that runs deeper: It essentially boils down to the dilemma of maintaining democracy without its protectors, saviors, and messiahs, in other words, a middle class; a middle class that will prop up democracy because it is the most conducive system to protecting its economic interests, and values of individual autonomy and self-expression.

If a middle class exists in Maldives, it has neither the numbers, nor the voice, to stand up for democratic principles.

Agents of Democracy

Middles classes are central to democratic analyses for two reasons: they install democracy, and ensure that it is “the only game in town” and there to stay.

Historically, democracy was born out of revolutions led or hijacked by the bourgeois, the land-owning middle class. In the UK, democracy followed the Glorious Revolution of the 17th century where the bourgeois who had accumulated wealth over time, gained enough power in the Long Parliament to demand that the king trade some political power in return for the right to tax. Likewise, in France, a revolution planted the seeds of democracy. In the 1700s, the French bourgeoisie, aided by a peasant revolution, formed the Constituent Assembly in opposition to the Estates General, abolished feudalism, and established the first French Republic.

Several centuries later, the salience of the middle class for democracy is not lost on us. Political Scientist Francis Fukuyama wrote a paper recently asking, “Can liberal democracy survive the decline of the middle class?” In it, he argues that one of challenges to democracy today is the left’s inability to articulate a realistic agenda that has any hope of protecting a middle-class society.

A multiparty election in 2008 in Maldives was not a result of a mass movement, or a middle class led revolution. It was as much a coup from within against Gayoom by his own ministers, and pressure from outside by a group of courageous and determined individuals, and by foreign governments. For a short key duration, this medley of actors took upon themselves, the responsibilities of a middle class, and installed democracy in Maldives.

The Middle Class Dilemma

If the role of the middle class as initiators has been lacking in second and third wave democracies, its absence is all the more apparent in the aftermath of the first free and fair elections. Political scientists concede that the statement “No bourgeois, no democracy,” holds true in most cases. The theory goes that, industrialisation sets in motion a process of modernisation that penetrates all aspects of life, “bringing occupational specialisation, urbanisation, rising educational levels, rising life expectancy, and rapid economic growth.” In short, industrialisation sets in motion modernization that gives birth to a middle class that at once demand “their right to have rights.” The order is important: development leads to democracy, because it creates a middle class in whose self-interest it is to support democratic values. The history of democracy in the West suggests that the growth of a middle class must precede the successful installation of democracy.

This sequence of events- industrialisation, modernisation, democracy- poses a grave problem for us.

To create a middle class, there has to be development. But fostering development within a democratic framework is a serious challenge in low-income countries. Nasheed was handed this gargantuan task when he came to power in 2008. Indian Scholar Ashutosh Varshney explains India’s struggle to do the same: “India is attempting a transformation few nations in modern history have successfully managed: liberalising the economy within an established democratic order.It is hard to escape the impression that market interests and democratic principles are uneasily aligned in India today. The two are not inherently contradictory, but there are tensions between them that India’s leaders will have to manage carefully.”

Why? Because “market-based policies meant to increase the efficiency of the aggregate economy frequently generate short-term dislocations and resentment. In a democratic polity, this resentment often translates at the ballot box into a halt or a reversal of pro-market reforms.” Successful western democracies, the US, the U., and France installed democracies after their countries transitioned to capitalist modes of production and modernised. They liberalised their markets before universal suffrage.

Nasheed’s struggle

Absent development or a revolution that transforms the economy in favor of the many, the onus of creating a middle class falls on the nascent democratic government. Nasheed’s policy objectives were in line with creating a middle class. Whether he implemented market reforms because of serious budget deficits or because of a genuine concern with redistribution, is beside the point. Head on, and fully aware who held the reigns to campaign funds, Nasheed tackled the loaded question of how to shift from an economy that enriches a few, to one that increases the pie and divvies it up more equally.

All said and done, and numerous controversies over lease agreements, minimum wage bills, and the right to strike, his tax reforms were a revolutionary break with the past. It was a first attempt at usurping the status quo. There were more. The barter system- trading an island for a harbor, a sewerage system, or a housing project- drove down the value of uninhabited islands, threatened to increase supply, and drive down the value of existing tourism products. Not only did Nasheed increase supply, but islands were handed left and right to new entrants to the tourism industry, threatening the existing oligarchy. In short, if there was a democratic revolution in Maldives, it was during Nasheed’s administration, encapsulated in his controversial market reforms that attempted to usurp the status quo, and re-distribute wealth. It was messy, it was fraught with corruption, but it was the closest we came to one.

Whereas market reforms disproportionately affect the poor in neighboring India, the unique Maldivian economy dictated that the grand oligarchy, the tourism tycoons, bore the brunt of market reforms in Maldives. A backlash was to be expected.

Nasheed’s mistake

Nasheed administration’s struggles demonstrate the dissonance in democratic theory when applied in a postindustrial world. But he also made calls that were unnecessary, and aggravated the problem of consolidating democracy without a middle class.

One of Nasheed’s biggest mistakes was in trying to modernise the masses overnight, before his policies yielded results. In a parallel process (to his market reforms), and too late in the game, Nasheed attempted to modernise through rhetoric (the likes of “Medhumin Rally”), poor decision-making (SAARC monuments), and behavior that cast him as not Islamic enough. He challenged the majority’s most dearly held identity, which is growing to be a stronger Islamic identity. The process of modernising a people is a carefully measured process that requires a special focus on reform in the economic and social realms, so that wealth and intellect are distributed more equally. And it takes time.

So it is no surprise that despite building several harbors, installing a health post on every inhabited island, increasing housing units in urban areas, and implementing a tax system, people in the outer islands, who benefited more under Nasheed than Gayoom, continues to support Gayoom’s party over the MDP. In the local council elections, which served as a referendum on the MDP government, the MDP lost most of the council seats in the outer islands, despite a well-organised campaign, and over 100 island visits by Nasheed himself.

Given such realities, the next elected government should expect no immediate rewards from the masses at the ballot box contingent on policy successes, and must be wise enough to withstand a backlash from the wealthy in the face of controversial yet necessary market reforms. The next government we elect will face the same challenges Nasheed’s did, but it can avoid ad hoc and impulsive decision-making that contributed to his accelerated downfall.

Fostering development that creates a middle class within a democratic framework is a serious challenge, perhaps one that has very few success stories. But one thing is for certain: it requires a strategising leadership that is strong enough to stand up to the business elite, yet thoughtful enough to understand the nuances dictating democratic consolidation.

The way things are moving in Maldives, I doubt we will have an election before 2013. But a bigger threat for democracy in Maldives is, come Election Day, we may not have a strong and serious leadership to vote for. If the focus is only on an election date, we are giving our politicians a free ride to power, and passing on a second chance at democracy.

All comment pieces are the sole view of the author and do not reflect the editorial policy of Minivan News. If you would like to write an opinion piece, please send proposals to [email protected]

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Audio of officer admitting to planting beer at MDP protest “edited”, claims MNDF

The Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) has issued a statement challenging claims made by private broadcaster Raajje TV, which aired a voice recording of a MNDF officer stating that beer cans discovered during the police dismantling of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP)’s protest camp had been planted by security services.

‘’We do not believe the audio is a voice recording of a MNDF officer that was in  the area that day,’’ the MNDF said in the statement. ‘’We believe that the voice has been edited.’’

MNDF said it condemned attempts to slander the MNDF.

In the voice recording released by Raajje TV, the MNDF officer admits taking beer cans to the area and keeping the beer cans inside a box in the area. He also says that the beer cans were cold when then they were taken to the area.

CEO of Raajje TV Abdulla Rafeeq told Minivan News that the voice recording was “100 percent valid” and “the voice of a member of the armed forces”.

‘’In our news we did not mention whether it was a MNDF officer or Police officer, we only said it was a member of the armed forces,’’ Rafeeq said. ‘’We did not edit the voice recording but we changed the voice to keep the source anonymous.’’

‘’There are other officers of the armed forces that have witnessed the incident,’’ he said. ‘’This officer that gave us the interview said he just could not ignore the matter knowing all this.’’

On March 19, Police and MNDF officers entered the MDP’s protest camp and demolished all evidence of it, taking down the podium, tents, yellow flags, and even repainting the seawall to remove anti-government slogans.

Media was initially ordered to leave the area, but was subsequently readmitted. Police then claimed to have discovered beer cans, homemade alcohol and condoms.

The MDP has since accused the police and MNDF officers of planting the items to discredit the MDP.

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President intends to remain at Hileaage

President Mohamed Waheed Hassan’s spokesperson Abbas Adil Riza has told local media that the President has no plans to move into the post’s official residence, Muleaage.

Abbas was keen to point out that the president’s reception last week was held at Mulee’aage due to pragmatic reasons concerning space.

“The President does not wish to shift his official residence. He resided at Hileaage when he was the Deputy President, and he wishes to continue to live there even as President,” Abbas told Sun Online.

Abbas is also reported as having said the President does not wish to live in a large palace whilst his people could not do the same.

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Kulhudhufushi woman found unconscious after being stabbed, suffocated

An 18 year-old woman has been attacked by a sharp object yesterday in the island of Kulhudhufushi, Haa Dhaal Atoll.

The police said that the incident took place at around 4:00pm in the evening and the victim is being treated currently in Kulhudhufushi Regional Hospital. The woman sustained injuries to her left wrist.

According local media, the woman was attacked with a box cutter and those who had attacked her had attempted to suffocate her. She was found unconscious at a rarely used small road behind her house.

The woman was reportedly attacked by masked men after she had reported the theft of a mobile phone and an iPad to police. The police at the time arrested two suspects but later released them.

The Maldives Police Service has said that the case is currently under investigation.

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Government “won’t be bullied by MDP”, Dunya tells Sunday Times

Daughter of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and newly-appointed State Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dunya Maumoon, has told Sri Lanka’s Sunday Times that “the government of President Waheed refuses to be bullied by the Maldivian Democratic PArty (MDP) into any particular position.”

Following meetings with the diplomatic community in Colombo, Dunya acknowledged that many were keen to know when the early election would be held.

“Most of the diplomatic community understand and believe the commitment of the government to strengthening democracy and protecting human rights, but some countries are very focused on the election date. But this is not the starting point for the dialogue process. Many other steps we have to take before that, and one, is to let parliament progress,” she told the Times.

“The MDP says they are not going to let anything proceed unless a date is given for an election. We are adamant that they don’t bully us by holding on to that election date. The government is in command. The President has considerable support. It is not right to allow a single party or a single individual to hold the country to ransom,” she said.

Gayoom would play an advisory role “behind the scenes”, she said.

“My father wants to be behind the scenes”

“My father has extended his support to President Waheed and he has offered his services in an advisory role but he wants to be behind the scenes,” Dunya said.

Former President Mohamed Nasheed maintains that the new government came to power in a coup de’tat, after he was forced to resign “under duress”.

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Escape from the Maldives: ‘This doesn’t look good, Mr President’

All hell was breaking loose down the street at the army headquarters, former advisor to ousted President Mohamed Nasheed, Paul Roberts, told MSN, recounting the last moments of Nasheed’s government.

“A couple of hundred supporters of former president Gayoom, who ruled the Maldives between 1978 and 2008, accompanied by a hundred or so police officers in full riot gear, were fighting with troops and trying to break into the HQ.

“I stood transfixed at the ongoing bedlam. A tear gas canister bounced past me down the street and dozens of young people started running towards me. I bolted into the President’s Office, behind the relative security of blast walls and armed guards.

“My colleagues who had made it into work were wandering around in a state of shock. I asked what was going on and people said there had been a police mutiny and hundreds of officers were no longer under state control. As the morning wore on, the situation became grimmer.

‘My colleague in army intelligence was looking increasingly worried. He reported that “all of the military police” and around 70 other soldiers had “switched sides” and joined the demonstrators. Most of the cabinet ministers were assembled in a second floor meeting room. There was no sign of President Nasheed.

‘The ministers were in disarray. Nobody knew what to do. My phone was going crazy, with calls from journalists and diplomats hungry for information.

“At around 11:30am, a friend at the state TV and radio broadcaster called and said police and protesters had raided the building. The journalists were locked in a room and the TV station had been taken off air. I went to the office balcony.

“A few of the President’s senior security advisers were making frantic calls to New Delhi, requesting Indian military intervention. I went up to my office and telephoned the British High Commission in Colombo, which handles Maldives’ affairs. I told them some of my colleagues were reporting that we were losing control of the country, and they were requesting foreign military intervention.”

“My phone kept ringing non-stop. One of the bodyguards was staring at me fiercely. I could see the bulge under his shirt by his hip, where I knew he kept his firearm. I slinked off to the toilet to answer my phone. It was a reporter from the New York Times. I told him the military had taken control of the President’s Office and I thought a coup was taking place. I came out of the loo and stood at the second floor balcony, near the President’s room.

“On the ground floor, the press office people were hurriedly taking a video camera into the press conference room. I saw Nasheed walking towards me, surrounded by a couple of aides and around seven people in combat fatigues.

“His eyes were bloodshot. He looked at me and smiled, as he always does. “So, Paul?” he said. I replied: “So this doesn’t look very good Mr President.”

“He slapped me on the back as he walked past into a meeting room. Within minutes, he hurriedly scribbled out a resignation letter and announced his decision on live TV. Two security people loyal to former president Gayoom, who had no role in the military or police at the time, flanked him.”

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The sea rises and democracy falls in the Maldives: Independent

Until four years ago, visitors to the Maldives were unwittingly supporting a nasty dictatorship where beatings and torture were routine, writes Joan Smith for the Independent.

“Then, in autumn 2008, the dictator, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, was turfed out in the country’s first democratic elections. The new president was my friend Mohamed Nasheed, a former political prisoner who soon began making a name for himself on the international stage.

I first got to know Anni, as he’s known, around 10 years ago. I met him in London and found him remarkably resilient for someone who had spent six years in jail, 18 months of it in solitary confinement. He is passionate about human rights, with a dry sense of humour and an apparently endless store of patience which convinced him that his Maldivian Democratic Party would one day triumph over the regime.

When he became president, Anni quickly established himself as an environmental campaigner, achieving almost rock-star status. He forced the world to recognise that the archipelago, which is only two metres above sea level, faces extinction because of global warming. His government set up a health system, pensions and the country’s first university. It struggled to modernise the judiciary, attracting criticism for some of its actions, but promoted the country as a functioning Muslim democracy. Last year, David Cameron even described Anni as his new best friend. But less than two months ago, Anni was deposed in an alleged coup.

Anni says he was forced at gunpoint to resign on television by military officers loyal to the old regime. He was placed under house arrest and the vice-president, Waheed Hassan, took over. As soon as Anni was released, he led a protest march in the capital, Male, where he was beaten up along with his party’s interim chair, Moosa Manik. According to Amnesty International, another protest march earlier this month was violently broken up by the police, who used batons and pepper spray.

Outside the Maldives, Anni’s friends have watched events unfold with horror. To begin with, the abrupt change of government didn’t receive as much attention as it deserved because it was stage-managed to look as though Anni had resigned of his own will. But a campaign to restore democracy is gathering pace: the EU has expressed concern about political unrest and the Commonwealth has called for early elections.

At the London premiere on Thursday, I was torn between enjoyment and anxiety, pleased to see Anni on the screen but worried about his safety and that of democracy campaigners in the Maldives. Earlier this month, Anni wrote an impassioned article and I don’t think I can do better than give him the final word: “The world has a duty not to sit passively by as the flame of democracy – for which Maldivians have fought so long – is snuffed out in our islands once again.”

Full story

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Parliamentary speaker raises “discord” concerns: Sun Online

Parliamentary Speaker Abdulla Shahid has claimed that discord such as the Majlis protests that saw President Mohamed Waheed Hassan initially blocked from providing his inaugural address this month has become a common occurrence since “authorities started doing things against the law.”

In an interview with the Sun Online news service, Shahid stressed that “any and all authorities” in the country were required to follow national laws in spite of whatever they wished to achieve whilst in office.

“In everything, we have lost control and things are going haywire, because steps have been taken in contravention to the dictates of the law,” he said.

“When the Executive starts violating the law, things would go wrong. As speaker of the Majlis, I am acting within the law, and I would not break the law even if the only way to achieve what I want to achieve politically is by breaking the law. The turmoil and tumult rampant in this country is the direct result of some authorities not respecting the law.”

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Step-grandson pleads guilty to being accessory in “sorcerer” murder

The step-grandson of an alleged “sorcerer” found dead following an attack on the island of Kudahuvadhoo, Dhaalu Atoll, has confessed to being an accessory to murder as his trial began today at the Criminal Court.

Haveeru reported that Kudahuvadhoo resident Ibrahim Waseem contradicted a previous statement provided to authorities by claiming today that he had sought revenge against Ali Hassan – the defendant’s step-grandfather.  Waseem claimed he has been seeking revenge after hearing allegations that Hassan was responsible for the murder of his mother using sorcery.

On January 8 this year, the body of 76 year-old Ali Hassan was discovered with multiple stab wounds in an abandoned home on Kudahuvadhoo. Waseem stands accused of conspiring with Fauzan Mohamed and Ibrahim Majeed, both also from Kudahuvadhoo, of murdering Ali Hassan as he made his way back from maghrib prayers. The defendant admitted to spying on Ali Hassan, but denies direct involvement in the murder.

According to Haveeru, Waseem declined to be appointed a lawyer during the trail after being made aware of the charges facing him by the presiding State Attorney, Aishath Fazna Ahmed.  After the charges against him were read out, Waseem was reported to have told Judge Abdul Baari Yusuf that they were true, a claim confirmed for a second time after a police statement was also read out to the court.

A statement given by Waseem was read out during the trial to the court claiming that he had been told by Fauzan Mohamed that Ali Hassan has murdered the defendant’s mother using sorcery. The statement continued that Fauzan has requested Waseem’s assistance in murdering his own step-grandfather over the allegations. Waseem claimed to have agreed only to spy upon Hassan as part of the plan.

Local media reported that when asked by the judge if the defendant had any closing remarks during the trial’s first day, Waeeem responded that he hoped for a swift end to the case.

Sorcery case

After Hassan’s body was found on Kudahuvadhoo at about 8:00pm on January 8, a special team from the police’s Serious and Organised Crime Department were dispatched to the island the very same day.

The victim himself had previously been accused of using sorcery on a 37 year-old woman, who was reported missing at 2:00am on December 4, 2011 and whose body was found floating in Kudahuvadhoo lagoon later that morning.

Island Council President of Kudahuvadhoo Ibrahim Fikry today told Minivan News following the discovery of Hassan’s body in January that local islanders were all frightened by the incident.

“After the death of the woman the islanders were scared, and then this incident occurred and now the islanders are worse,” he said adding that no one at the time walked on Kudahuvadhoo’s roads after sundown.

“The injuries sustained were horrific,” Fikry told Minivan News at the time, claiming to have seen the body of the man.

Fikry said that the victim’s forehead was slashed and that his neck was slit. “There were deep stab wounds to the chest and back, revealing the bones. The intestines were visible from a slash to the stomach,” he recalled.

An islander from Kudahuvadhoo who spoke to Minivan News after the discovery of Hassan’s body claimed that the victim was “unpopular” in the community for his alleged practice of sorcery.

Hassan was formerly Deputy Island Chief of Gemedhoo in Dhaal Atoll, which was devastated in the 2004 tsunami. When the population resettled in Kudahuvadhoo, he was removed from the position over allegations of child abuse, said a council member.

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