Tag: finance

Mahlouf alleges MDP offered him $US2 million to defect

Opposition Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) MP Ahmed Mahlouf has hit out at opposition politicians switching their allegiances for financial gain, claiming he too was offered a bribe to defect.

Mahlouf claimed that he had been “personally told” that Ali Waheed would be switching his political allegiance for money, and further alleged that he had himself been offered US$2 million to join and vote in favour of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP).

“I don’t believe selling myself is a choice, but ever since I have known some of these MPs they have always wanted money,” he said.

Mahlouf alleged that it was only Ali Waheed who had taken money to join the MDP – a move he claimed was a coup for the country’s governing party.

“[Waheed] was loved by the DRP, but now that he’s gone he is nobody,” Mahlouf said. “President Nasheed will have the same feeling, so this is a good deal.”

Mahouf said that although the defections, which come as a number of DRP parliamentarians have switched sides in parliament, was a sad development for opposition supporters. However he said he believed it was on the other hand a positive development in regards to the loyalty of the remaining politicians.

The DRP MP’s allegations of bribes being used to entice opposition politicians to switch parties were refuted by MDP spokesperson Ahmed Haleem, who claimed that Ali Waheed’s defection reflected political ambition and not financial concern.

Haleem added that although it remains essential for the MDP to obtain a political majority in parliament to pass a reform agenda blocked by partisan opposition majority, recent defections by MPs including the former DRP Deputy Leader were made on political principal and not bribes.

“Ali Waheed and Abdu Raheem – these are young ambitious people that are not part of the Gayoom regime. The MDP is the country’s only true democratic party, unlike the DRP which is more like a family organisation,” he claimed. “Waheed has a future in politics in this country and I believe he is a clean guy. So while we need a parliamentary majority for the MDP, we do not want to be spending money we don’t have to get it. This is politics, not a football transfer market.”

Questioned over whether some MDP supporters would be sceptical of the intentions of a former opposition MP like Ali Waheed, who in his first speech as an MDP member last week accepted he had been “critical” of President Nasheed and his government in the past, Haleem said he believed members were overall happy at the defection.

“I think all MDP supporters will be very happy, our members are determined in that they want change in this country,” he said.

The DRP has attracted significant local media attention in recent months with factional infighting between supporters of serving leader Ahmed Thasmeen Ali and his predecessor Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. One reason for the strife, according to Mahlouf, was division over how to respond to the government’s financial reform program and decision to devalue the rufiyaa against the US dollar.

Speaking at rallies and gatherings held this week against government economic reforms, following a week of protests earlier this month in Male’, Mahlouf, who is linked to the Z-DRP faction of the party, said that the so-called “youth movement” behind the protests had decided to give the government time to try and address financial concerns before resuming demonstrations.

Haleem meanwhile claimed that while the protests had lost momentum due to a growing public acceptance and understanding of the need for economic changes bought forward by President Mohamed Nasheed, as well as the “weakening” of the DRP.

“I think you will find that 99 percent of people are fed up with the DRP, even three of the party’s members have [defected],” Haleem said. “People are accepting that financial changes are needed and the president has been stating these aims more clearly. We are a civilised country and we need direct taxation – such as the tourism general service tax (TGST) – the President is not just changing the political but also the economic situation in the Maldives.”

Speaking last night during a rally held at the artificial beach area of Male’, Mahlouf claimed that demonstrations held over the last few days had been organised by Thasmeen’s supporters and a number of local NGOs rather than the “youth movement” that had instigated protests earlier in the month.

“We need to be responsible politicians right now and protesting every night is not the only solution to the economic issues,” he said.  “We did a good job supporting the protesters, but it’s time to give some time to the government to try and make changes before we consider more protests.”

Addressing crowds of DRP supporters during last night’s gathering, which he said had drawn “huge crowds”, Mahlouf used his speech to attack the recent defection of a number of DRP politicians such as Ali Waheed to the MDP cause, as the party of President Nasheed seeks to entrench its long-sought parliamentary majority.

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Q&A: Finance Minister Ahmed Inaz

Finance Minister Ahmed Inaz was approved by parliament in late April 2011, replacing Ali Hashim who was among President Mohamed Nasheed’s cabinet ministers to be ousted by the opposition-majority parliament. He was approved just as the government implemented a managed float of the rufiya, and spoke to Minivan News about the recent and rapid changes to the country’s economy, the challenges it is facing and the future outlook.

JJ Robinson: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission is in town following the conclusion of the Article IV consultation last year. What is the current status of the government’s involvement with the IMF?

Ahmed Inaz: The IMF is discussing a new three program [with the government]. We are talking about structural adjustments that need to be brought in, and on the revenue side we are agreeing measures we foresee need to take in the next two years. We are trying to agree on the policy side.

They have their suggestions and recommendations and we have the policies the President is proposing, and we are trying to come a common agreement hopefully by the start of next week. I’m hopeful we will re-enter the program.

JJR: The IMF delayed the third tranche of funding in November last year citing “significant policy slippages” on behalf of the government. Did the third tranche get delivered?

AI: The question is not about that, the question is what can be practically done in this country. The new government came in with a new democratic setup, but not the budget to support that. The budget didn’t carry the cost of the new reforms.

It is not a matter of whether we can cut down expenditure – yes there are fat layers in the country, not only in the civil service, also in the judiciary and independent institutions. But the fundamental issue is that because of the democratic transition we have a state with recurrent expenditure higher than its revenue.

To make matters worse, the salaries of the state payroll are higher than our income. You can see where the problem lies.

What we foresee is that there are two ways in which we have to work to rectify this issue.

One is to trim the fat layer, by matching outputs with staff and increasing productivity.

The other thing is by increasing our revenue. We need to move from the current inefficient way of raising revenue – which bases revenue on import duties – to a more direct taxation policy.

We currently have the import duty which is a burden for businessmen, because they are taxed before they sell. We will abolish most duties, apart from those on items that are environmentally damaging, those that affect health, and other discouraged items.

The rest will be abolished and we will move into a direct taxation policy when the business profit tax starts in July. We have also started collecting revenue from a Tourism Goods and Services Tax (TGST), and we propose that we increase this as well as introducing a general GST for the public, and an income tax.

This would not be a payroll tax. It would be an income tax on people earning above Rf 30,000 (US$2300) per month. We think this is more justifiable.

Some may feel that this will collect only a very small amount of revenue – but this not just revenue from employment, but income from business dividends, house sales and so forth.

JJR: The former auditor general reported difficultly getting people to declare assets. Is this difficult with high net-worth individuals in the Maldives?

AI: One thing you have to understand is that this is a path other countries have walked. I remember when I was doing my graduate studies, even then we were talking about this. It was something the educated intellects were advocating. It never happened because there was no political willingness – willingness we now have.

I believe that once we start we will sort the rest of the issues. The TSGT is already being taken from big resorts as well as small guest houses on remote islands – very small businesses. They declare – amazingly, they declare.

I think this is something the country can take, and then we can move to rectify problems and perfect the system.

JJR: The general popularity of the idea seems quite sour with members of the opposition. How do you propose getting this tax through the opposition-majority parliament?

AI: All the businessmen I have met – all the reasonable businessmen I have met – believe that the country has to move to a much more structured, predictable and more coherent system of governance. And to do that we need an economic system that supports social change, and supports the change we have brought politically.

To sustain their businesses it is important that they have social and political stability. It would be a grave mistake if one stands up and says they don’t support [income tax], because that will bring instability to the country and harm businesses.

The other thing is that once you have a system of redistributing wealth through direct tax, such as we are proposing, this is spent on infrastructure, welfare, education, transport – all of these things that directly benefit wealthy businessmen, because they don’t have to pay for it on an individual basis. So the cost of doing business will be lowered.

I believe MPs, businessmen and business-MPs will support this. Those I have met have given their full support – they just want to be consulted first.

JJR: Don’t you think that as a potentially populist issue this may become a victim of the country’s adversarial politics?

AI: I think the opposition is very mature. When we were in the opposition, then the opposition was very mature. I think they will choose the best for the country. We are doing the tough job here – by 2013 the game will be easier. We are laying the foundation for the country, not only by changing the political scenario but bringing huge economic changes. I think they will support it.

JJR: Back to the IMF. A theme in their reports last year – and also those of the World Bank – was that while the Maldives’ income might be increased gradually, the country’s immediate problem was the inflated state budget, leading to a high deficit, while the country was at the same time insisting on a pegged currency. The government’s attempt to introduce cuts last year were scuttled – in your mind what were the reasons for this?

AI: One thing was that the business profit tax was delayed in parliament – for reasons I don’t think I have to elaborate. The TGST we proposed was higher than what are getting now, and that has also had an impact on us.

Also we have to remember that the redundancy of the civil service is not an easy thing – the country’s employment has been totally dependent on the government. It is a very big change, and we have said we want the government to be a policy maker, a regulator, but not doing business, so jobs are created in the private sector.

I’m happy to say our redundancy program – with assistance from the Asia Development Bank (ADB) – has to this date enrolled 800 people and already some of them have already been paid and moved out of the civil service. We hope over the next few weeks we will achieve our target of 1300 – the idea is that they will retrained and not return to the government for at least three years.

JJR: A key criticism of the government’s economic policy from the opposition is its spending on political appointees.

AI: Out of total government expenditure, 75 percent is paying the payroll. The political appointees are three percent of that payroll.

I believe that any appointee, whether political, civil service or judicial – any unproductive appointee – is a burden on our system and we should make them redundant.

JJR: Enmity between the Finance Ministry and the Civil Service Commission (CSC) last year led to the ministry filing charges with police against the CSC, just as the cuts issue entered the court system. What is the relationship like now between the Ministry and the CSC?

AI: We are working very closely with them and they have been very cooperative on the redundancy issue.

JJR: A number of private sector businesses have expressed concern that while the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA)’s decision to enforce the use of the rufiya for all transactions is fine when you have a freely-convertable currency, it presents a serious problem when the banks refuse to sell dollars to them.

AI: The government doesn’t print dollars, and the government doesn’t earn dollars, except for fees and taxes, which is a very small percentage of the total demand for dollars in the country. The dollars are earned primarily by the resorts and fish exporters.

What we want is a system where the foreign exchange system operates as a market. We have introduced a banded float [within 20 percent of the pegged Rf12.85 to the dollar]. What we want is that the dollar earners will sell this to the market, and within the next three months an equilibrium will be achieved.

I don’t mean a low rate – I mean an equilibrium. Once that is set and the speculation and market adjustment has competed, we will have addressed the fundamental reason as to why the black-market existed.

Firstly, because the existing laws and regulations were not enforced, and existing legislation relating to money changers legislation was not being enforced – we cannot have 220 money changers in the country. I have not seen this in other countries. They have to be proper money changers who have invested a certain amount of capital, just like the banks.

I emphasise this but I still don’t get the commitment I need from stakeholders to address it.

Secondly, the monetary regulation states that rufiya is the legal tender for all transactions, with the exception of the government’s collection of taxes and fees. I think we should enforce this irrespective of the sector. We should have rufiya prices – what other country has prices in another country’s currency?

You can still pay in dollars – but this is the exchange rate. For [the customer] it may still seem as though you are paying in dollars, but the transactions are actually happening in rufiya. In Colombo you pay in local currency, even if you use your credit card. We need to have that enforcement irrespective of the sector.

In the medium term we need to address the budget deficit, especially recurrent spending, which has to be matched with income. A state cannot be operated without matching recurrent expenditure to its income – that is madness. A state has to have a prudent economic system – capital expenditure can still be borrowed, because future returns are there.

We working with the ministries to streamline and reduce the deficit in the budget. Next year we are hoping to have a balanced budget.

JJR: The opposition-majority parliament has substantially added to the last two budgets submitted by the government, and the President has been compelled to ratify these. How do you deal with this?

AI: We are trying to work on the legal side as well as the practical, and make sure this is enforced – at least that recurrent expenditure and income is matched, and that any additional bill passed during that particular year is supported with a revenue measure.

They can’t just simply tell us to pass a budget, and then pass bills giving us additional expenditure – every bill comes at a cost. What we propose is that they think about this and rectify it – this is very important.

The third long term goal is increasing productivity and exports, to make sure that whichever government is in power, our manifesto continues and the country can move forward. We need exports to be increased, and earn dollars. Long term, that is the only solution to counter this [economic situation]. In the long run there should be a regulatory framework that supports this.

JJR: Speaking of the regulator, where does the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) fit into this? It was only recently that the government was calling for the resignation of MMA Governor Fazeel Najeeb for failing to help address the situation.

AI: I don’t want to dwell on that. For me the governor – whoever is there – I should work with them. What I want is the regulations to be there. For example, the devaluation of the currency within this 20 percent band – that has to be supported.

Once we make a decision, such as the devaluation, we cannot go back. The fundamental health of the economy told us that we had to do this. The President met with the MMA Board, which advised, and a decision was made. It is not time for us to affect the confidence of the economy – an economy cannot survive without confidence. That is the crucial factor an economy needs – and state institutions need to ensure that confidence is there.

JJR: If the government was convinced that the value of the rufiya was going to fall somewhere within that band, why not float the currency altogether?

AI: The reason what that if we float the currency it would have short-term consequences and immediate jumps. A band means the government will defend that band – that is what we are doing with the weekly auction of dollars to the banks.

Secondly we have numbers from the TGST income that suggest we have been underestimating our economy. By having our policies in place – productivity increasing policies and growing additional exports – we are confident we can pull the value of the rufiya down to 10 in the long term – that is our aim. It is not a joke.

JJR: There is a lot of concern, particularly in resort circles, that the new policy restricting expatriate remittances will reduce the willingness of people to work in the Maldives. What was the logic behind that decision?

AI: We understand that expatriate employees are very important. We will never hurt them and we will ensure that their interests are protected. The regulation that the Ministry and MMA are working on will only limit repatriation of what they earn legally under their contract. If they remit more, obviously they will have been earning illegally.

They are living and spending in the Maldives as well – but they can still repatriate up to what they earn. What we are trying to do is limit illegal workers [remitting dollars out of the country].

JJR: If at the same time you are enforcing use of the rufiya when there is some doubt as to whether you can walk into a bank and exchange that into dollars to remit it overseas – does that not impact confidence in the economy?

AI: We believe the market is currently unstable because of the changes we have brought, and that these changes will take three months for the various variables to work. In that period the government will work with the MMA to ensure that stability exists.

There will be a lot of low confidence and instability, and that will not only be felt by the expatriates. All our imports and consumables, medicine, education – is imported. But we are confident we can get through this.

JJR: Potential foreign investors looking at the economy and observing the recent changes may be unsettled by this instability. How do you address this concern?

AI: The current government is a centre-right government, and we are opening our doors to an unimaginable level for foreign investment.

We will not be treating foreign investors different from local businesses. We will not put in unreasonable controls on the economy, and we will make sure foreign investors are consulted, as with the locals.

We have not done this in the past.because we have been very tightly focused on politics as well as the economy, and haven’t been able to communicate as much in English perhaps as we should have.

I believe [foreign investors] have confidence in our economy, and we will ensure their investments are protected in this country, and that wel continue to have policies to encourage further investment. This country does not have a solid financial sector so we need foreign investors very much. That is understood by the current government, and the policy is to attract foreign investors.

JJR: So economy before politics from here on in?

AI: Yes. Until the next election!

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Comment: It’s the economy stupid!

There is only one thing on everyone’s mind – the dollar-rufiyaa exchange rate. In a country that imports everything from salt to the accountants that run its businesses, it is no wonder that everyone from the construction worker to the Maldives’ answer to Donald Trump (I’ll leave you to guess whom) is trying their hand at being an economist with a specialty in foreign exchange.

Whether you agree with the politics of it or not, the devaluation was needed. If anything it should have come sooner. The Maldives has been growing its rufiyaa-based economy at break-neck speed. Salary rises across the board, increased government spending and ever increasing infrastructure projects have become the norm over the past decade. By and large this ‘growth’ in the domestic economy has been driven by the public sector (government policy & the civil service) and paid for by printing Maldivian rufiyaa and clever manoeuvres with T-Bills (which the government has used since 2009 to be able conveniently sidestep the charge of printing money). In simple terms: successive governments printed/created money to drive domestic economic growth.

What it didn’t manage to do was increase it’s dollar receipts at the same speed (actually all foreign currency, but I’ll use dollar interchangeably in this article). Yes growth in the tourism industry increased the dollar receipts but nearly not enough to fund the increase of rufiyaa in circulation. The previous government had a spade of one-off dollar incomes by selling resorts, but by neglecting to make sure that these so called developers had the capacity to develop the properties and provide the country with a constant source of dollars, they missed a trick. The consequence: an imbalance in the amount of dollars the country has the capacity of earning and the amount of rufiyaa it is printing/creating and spending. If you increase the supply of rufiyaa without the corresponding increase in dollar receipts, it is inevitable that Maldivian rufiyaa will be worth less. It is simple demand and supply.

So the question is, where to from here? By creating a ceiling at Rf15.42, the government has effectively stopped a steep depreciation in the currency and has minimised the crippling effects of a severe shock to the economy – and it should be praised for that. There is however a cost. This will erode purchasing power in the short term and will hit people’s pockets (albeit tempered by the fact that the dollar was already trading at around Rf 14 in the black market despite the best efforts of the authorities). As always, it is the common ‘Mohanma’ on the street who will bear the highest burden. Prices will inevitably creep up and the inflation will put pressure on wages. Any subsequent wage increases which will lead to further effective devaluations. Let us not sugar coat this – it will be painful.

What the government needs to do is to come up with a credible plan to redress this imbalance and reassure the people that the pain is worth it. There are two fundamental way of doing this: i) reducing the rufiyaa in circulation, or ii) increasing the dollar revenue the country earns. In my mind there is no doubt the answer lies in a fiscal solution to get the economy back on an even keel. The dollar crisis is simply a symptom of deeper economic woes – not the problem itself.

Reducing rufiyaa in circulation

The main levers of doing this are a) reduce government spending – reducing wages and cutting unfunded government projects and/or b) increasing rufiyaa-based taxes.

Reducing government spending is an essential plank of what needs to be done to rebalance the books. This is the path that the UK and the EU (driven by Germany) are already following, and all indications are that the US will announce similar austerity measures after its Quantitative Easing splurge. Cutting too quick and too deep may the tip the economy into recession and that would be very painful – but not doing anything is simply not an option. The consequences are even graver.

The government also needs to ensure that it adopts a progressive taxation system on rufiyaa-based incomes. We need to ensure that the rich share ‘equitably’ in the pain of rebalancing our books. Equitably here means that they pay a much higher proportion of the cleanup costs – in practice this should be a combination of no taxes for the low income earners, close to 50 percent taxes for the ultra high income earners and a corporation tax system which exempts small local businesses.

Increase the dollar revenue

The most appealing of all options as it means no painful cuts. The catch is that this is largely out of the government’s control, at least in the short term. The only two significant sources of dollar income are through fisheries and tourism – and there are challenges in growing both sectors. Investment in fisheries is long over due, but ultimately the sector does not have the scale to solve the problem in the short to medium term – it is simply too small today.

Tourism, the great gold rush of this generation, is a much bigger challenge. Government types tell wonderful stories of 20 percent equity returns and 60 resorts waiting to be developed. The simple truth is that this represents close to US$3 billion of investment in a country where the nominal GDP is around £1.5 billion – an improbability to put it mildly. It is simply not realistic to pin our hopes on some sort of tourism growth bonanza in the short term – we might as well play the Euro lottery every week if this is the only plan.

The long term rebalance

In the long term, the structural solutions are through growth of our industries that translate into real economic growth underpinned by increases in our foreign currency receipts. The government needs to:

  1. Foster an environment where real growth can be achieved for our innovative companies in the fisheries sector (the next Big Fish, Horizon et al), and also create opportunities for Maldivian corporations and SMEs in other sectors to grow into the world market. Investing in revenue growth is more important that building airports on every island. Real growth in the economy driven by the private sector is the road to prosperity – not government spending based on printing money and clever manoeuvres with T-Bills.
  2. Move now to ensure a quick solution to all the tourism development projects stopped because they were awarded to parties with no money or track record. It is bizarre that they have been allowed to hang on to ‘their’ assets without fulfilling their obligations by cajoling the government and the banks. Moratoriums on lease payments or debt repayments may look innocuous enough, but they rob the country of vital growth opportunities and hence ultimately rob the people. We should not stand for it.
  3. Implement an equitable progressive taxation system. It is not fair that the low income people pay the same taxes as the highest earning group – through the flat import duty this means that the poor actually pay a larger percentage of their income as tax than the rich. And it is criminal that the resort owners are sitting in parliament legislating that they should not pay their fair share of taxes on the very substantial amounts they earn. This is a clear conflict of interest and something that needs to be addressed at a national level. The constitutional stipulation that Majlis members shall not vote on issues in which they have a personal vested interest must become more than just a nice idea on paper. The 3 percent tourism GST is simply not equitable enough!

The country’s economic troubles require a bold government that can show leadership and is honest with the Maldivian people about the tough choices ahead. Equally it needs a responsible opposition which accepts the reality of the problem and challenges the government on the merits of its economic policies by proposing viable alternatives. For their trials and tribulations, the Maldivian people deserve it. Whether they are lucky enough to have either, only time will tell.

Ali Imraan is the Director of Structured Finance at the Royal Bank of Scotland. The views expressed here are his own personal views and opinions and do not represent those of the Royal Bank of Scotland and should not be construed to do so in any way, shape or form.

All comment pieces are the sole view of the author and do not reflect the editorial policy of Minivan News. If you would like to write an opinion piece, please send proposals to [email protected]

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IMF praises managed float of rufiya, “unpredictable” and “high risk” warn local experts

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has praised the Maldives’ decision to effectively devalue its currency, allowing the rufiya to be traded within 20 percent of the pegged rate of Rf12.85 to the dollar.

“Today’s bold step by the authorities represents an important move toward restoring external sustainability,” the IMF said in a statement. “IMF staff support this decision made by the authorities. We remain in close contact and are ready to offer any technical assistance that they may request.”

The Bank of Maldives was today trading the dollar at the maximum selling price of Rf15.42 and buying at Rf12.75 while the Bank of Ceylon was selling it at 13.80 and buying at Rf13.60.

At a press conference this afternoon, newly-appointed Finance Minister Ahmed Inaz explained that the government decided to change the fixed exchange rate to a “managed float” to shape government policy towards increasing the value of the rufiya and ultimately bring the exchange rate down to Rf10 – an oft-repeated pledge of President Mohamed Nasheed.

The worsening balance of payments deficit could not be plugged without allowing the market to set the exchange rate, Inaz continued, adding that through lowering the fiscal deficit and spurring private sector job growth “a path would open up for us to reach the lower band (Rf10.28).”

“My estimate is that it will take about three months for the market to stabilise and reach a balanced [exchange] rate,” he said.

MMA Deputy Governor Aishath Zahira acknowledged on state television last night that the fixed exchange rate in effect since July 2001 had been “artificial.”

Economic Development Minister Mahmoud Razee argued that as a result of the artificially fixed exchange rate, “we do not really know, based on the breadth of the domestic economy, what the value of the Maldivian rufiyaa is right now.”

The managed floating rate, said Razi, would allow the government to decide specific measures that would be needed to improve the exchange rate – such as the extent to which foreign exchange reserves should be increased.

State Minister for Finance Ahmed Assad told press that TGST (tourism goods and services) receipts in February had revealed that previous estimates of the amount of dollars that enter the country were well below the actual figure. The government now estimates a minimum annual income of US$2.5 billion.

Assad urged citizens to use banks to purchase and exchange dollars to avoid “becoming prey to [black market operators].”

A senior government source said the decision was made based on the government’s speculation “that people are hoarding dollars. We hope this will send a signal to the market. It also shows our commitment to a market economy.”

“High risk”

The government has struggled to cope with an exacerbating dollar shortage brought on by a high budget deficit – triggered by a spiralling public sector expenditure – in comparison with the foreign currency flowing into the country. Civil service expenditure has increased in real terms by 400 percent since 2002.

Banks subsequently demonstrated reluctance to sell dollars at the pegged rate, and high demand for travel, commodities and overseas medical treatment forced most institutions to ration their supply.

A watershed moment last week – a crackdown on the hitherto ignored blackmarket sale of dollars at rates of up to Rf14.5 – led to increasing desperation among the lower-paid of the country’s 100,000 expatriate workers, who found themselves blocked from trading currency and unable to remit money home to their families.

The government’s decision yesterday is effectively a ‘rose-tinted’ devaluation of the currency, at least in the short-term, but according to one financial expert could have unpredictable consequences once the market catches up in 4-6 weeks.

“Other countries have a maximum band of eight percent. I have not come across any countries with 20 percent. I think it’s too wide,” said Ahmed Adheeb, a local financial expert working in the private sector. “Why did the government overshoot the blackmarket rate of Rf14.5, and why did it take them two years to come to this decision?”

Adheeb predicted that the construction industry would be among the hardest-hit, “as ongoing projects will now face additional costs. In addition, smaller and medium-sized enterprises supplying resorts may find that their commission and profit is gone if their contracts are in rufiya.”

The public would also be impacted, Adheeb said, as importers passed on the rising cost of goods.

The devaluation came at the same time as the tourist season was winding down for the year, and pilgrims were searching for dollars for the upcoming Hajj. Pilgrims could be called on to make additional payments, Adheeb speculated, while Ramazan importers could face additional challenges this year.

The general public would be also be impacted as the cost of commodities rises to fill the new exchange rate, Adheeb said, while the government’s commitment to projects such as harbour construction could be delayed due to the risks of taking on even more debt.

“This will also affect business contracts, particularly [those concerning] foreign employment, and students studying overseas,” Adheeb said, predicting that “if the market does not stabilise then in three months time we will see a further devaluation. The government is taking a huge risk.”

Structural adjustments

The move will put the government on good terms with the IMF, which spent last year trying to encourage the government to make difficult political decisions for the sake of the economy, and just stopped short of calling for a devaluation of the currency on conclusion of its Article IV consultation.

The IMF, which has shown resounding disinterest in local politicking, in February 2011 criticised the government for “significant policy slippages” claiming that its failure to reduce its expenditure had undermined the country’s capacity to address its crippling budget deficit.

“On the expenditure side, there have been no net fiscal savings from public employment restructuring, public sector wages will be restored to their September 2009 levels earlier than expected, and the new Decentralisation and Disability Bills will lead to considerable spending increases,” the IMF stated. “Also, the Business Profit Tax will come on stream eighteen months later than planned.”

It did however praise the government for getting much-needed business profit tax and tourism goods and services tax legislation through parliament, signalling that this was a major step towards long-term economic maturity. The bills had faced obstacles in parliament, which includes among its MPs some of the country’s wealthiest figures in the resort industry, and who were instrumental in increasing the budgets sent to parliament by the Finance Ministry.

Opposition Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) MP Ali Waheed this morning proposed a motion without notice condemning the government’s decision to relax the dollar exchange rate.

Waheed said that he was prompted to submit the motion out of concern for the plight of Maldivian students in foreign institutions and patients who need to fly abroad for treatment.

The DRP MP for Thoddoo also accused the government of compromising the independence of the country’s central bank by trying to influence monetary policy.

In the ensuing one-hour debate, opposition MPs argued that the immediate consequence of the new floating exchange rate would be a 20 percent rise in inflation.

DRP Leader Ahmed Thasmeen Ali explained that government revenue from import duties would increase by 20 percent but the affected businesses would pass the cost to customers.

“We are in this state because the government increased the [amount of rufiya] in circulation by printing money and taking on credit,” said Thasmeen, in a statement likely to raise political hackles among the ruling party, considering that the IMF has stated that the economic crisis in the Maldives was triggered by “expansionary fiscal policies” from 2004 – under the former administration.

This left the country especially vulnerable to the decline in tourism during the 2008-2009 recession. However the financial deficit exploded on the back of a 400 percent increase in the government’s wage bill between 2004 and 2009, with tremendous growth between 2007 and 2009.

On paper, the government increased average salaries from Rf3000 to Rf11,000 and boosted the size of the civil service from 24,000 to 32,000 people – 11 percent of the total population of the country – doubling government spending from 35 percent of GDP to 60 percent from 2004 to 2006.

While preliminary figures had pegged the 2010 fiscal deficit at 17.75 percent, “financing information points to a deficit of around 20-21 percent of GDP”, down from 29 percent in 2009, the IMF reported.

Adheeb said today that parliament, independent institutions, civil service and political appointees had continued to make salary demands on the state “but nobody is thinking about the economy.”

“Economic decisions are being politicised when the economy should be the first priority – we cannot survive without it. Only then can political stability be achieved,” he said.

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Q&A: CEO of Bank of Maldives, Peter Horton

The Bank of Maldives (BML) has appointed British national Peter Horton to the position of CEO, replacing Ganesan Subramanyam who left the country in May 2010 amidst an internal investigation concerning allegations of sexual assault. Minivan News spoke to Horton about the challenges facing the bank, its strengths and opportunities such as developing the Maldives as an offshore banking destination for nearby emerging economies such as India.

JJ Robinson: What was it about your professional background that makes you suitable for the role?

Peter Horton: The very long story is that I’ve been in banking since 1984, spending the first 15 years in the UK with Barclays (one of the UK’s four major banks). I then moved out to Africa with Barclays operating initially as a risk director for the business, at the time the most profitable part of their business. That was in Botswana.

From there I ran Barclay’s corporate turnaround teams for the whole of Africa, so I have huge experience dealing with distressed portfolios and problem lending. I lived in Nairobi (in Kenya) for three and a half years.

Afterwards I spent time building my own company in South Africa, before going back into banking in the Bahamas with a subsidiary of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, where I was in charge of corporate banking. If there is any theme in my career it is one of building strong teams and re-engineering teams and businesses internally and externally. In many ways I’m probably more equipped for this role with BML than I first realised.

JJ: What were your reasons for accepting the BML role, how did it come about, and why did you decide to come to the Maldives?

PH: At this particular stage of my career I was looking for the right step in terms of progression and development. This is my first CEO role, although not my first leadership role.

It really fulfilled a number of my requirements. Here is a business with challenges facing it, and a CEO role with some degree of autonomy, and just happens to be in the Maldives. I was happy to come here – although I have limited experience of Asia, my wife is from Indonesia.

I am very hungry to develop myself and I wanted a challenge. I also know that at my age it’s important to advance your career properly, and I never hide from challenges or taking responsibility for my actions.

The bank was looking through many channels to recruit and the role came to me through an HR consultant I was working with in the UK. He recommended it and the rest is history.

JJ: Did you hear anything about the fate of your predecessor?

PH: It’s fair to say is that Google is a very powerrful tool and I’ve seen a lot of things, some of which might be true and some might not. Obviously on arriving here it was very important to understand the history of the business. Certainly I’ve taken time to understand some of the challenges the business has had to face in the last few years.

My predecessor did go some way towards making changes in the business, and I needed to understand where it was going to. I’ve spent the first two months learning the recent and distant past.

JJ: What do you see as the key challenges BML is facing?

PH: I think many [challenges] will dovetail ino each other. We have a very public and a very high non-performing loan problem. Whereever you are in the world, that is an impediment to any bank’s performance, and it has a carrying cost. It also creates a certain mood around the business internally and externally.

The economy we are operating in creates a challenge. We like any bank in the Maldives are restricted by the size of our balance sheet and in respect of having a single borrower limit, and also crediential industry limits. Knowing that the bulk of the industry here is tourism, but also having a limit up to which we are not able to lend any more to tourism, becomes a constraint and a challenge.

I think the other challenge we face is around service. I think this business grew very rapidly, not just the loan base but in terms of customers, especially if you look at what BML was 10 years ago.

That goes some way to explaining why we have such big queues in the banking hall. When I came out for my interview I took the time to walk around Male’ several times – and go in very incognito to see the BML branch. I have to experience what the customer experiences , and I don’t think that experience is what any of us want.

So for me a challenge is to create a great customer experience. That is a challenge: serving the segments we have chosen to serve, but acknowledging some aspects in which we have to do better. Some of that is service, some of that is embracing new technology, other looking is at our processes. The customer base often grows faster than processes.

Those are the key challenges: a challenging and relatively flat economy – we haven’t even touched on the dollar shortage – a high level of non-performing loans, concentration of activity in the economy which is at odds with what any bank has to have for a balanced portfolio, and personal service issues.

JJ: What are some of the ways you are planning to address these challenges?

PH: Without sidestepping the question, I am at the point where I am formulating a bigger strategy for the bank and it is only correct that I speak to the board and engage them first.

What I can say is that every single one of those issues we can address, and we can deal with. None of the challenges I’ve outlined daunt me. What I do not want to do is to rush into inappropriate quick fixes. I want this business to be successful in a very sustainable way.

We can talk about the challenges, but also focus on the upsides of the business and start to capitalise on them better than we have been.

JJ: What are some of key areas of potential for BML?

PH: Some of this is again part of the strategy. But as to the strengths: we already have some great innovation within BML. We issue credit cards, debit cards, and have invested substantially to be a card acquirer serving domestic and resort communities. We have unparalleled reach in this country. We are in every atoll and do our best to reach clients even if we don’t have a branch near them. It might not be the best in some respects, but we are trying.

We bank more parts of the sector in this country than any other bank, and we have some outstanding talent within our business.

JJ: One of the perceptions here is that despite the resorts being a major part of the economy and certainly moving a lot of money around, they tend bank outside the country – either because of concerns relating to the stability of the Maldivian economy, dollar issues, or because they already have a head office based overseas somewhere like Singapore or Thailand. Is there an issue attracting these businesses to bank locally?

PH: Every international business is going to to an international treasury function. I’ve seen it in Africa and the Caribbean. They will move funds around as it suits them best, and it isn’t necessarily negative towards the Maldives. [A company] in Sydney might have an offshore unit in Singapore for tax reasons because that suits them better.

If we were able to provide an offshore banking alternative, it is not inconceivable that the Maldives would attract some of that global flow of cash by having a favourable tax jurisdiction here. It is certainly a big plus.

I think that’s always what you are up against in terms of flow of cash. Ways we can attract more dollar flow to stay here is  probably by lending more dollars to make it stay here. If I am lending in dollars I am making a dollar profit – that dollar profit stays here because we don’t have dividends going outside the country. If we’re able to address the balance sheet and dollar contraints we have, that to me would be a way to increase the level of dollars that stay in the country.

Merchant services is one aspect – whilst the dollars might flow out of the country, we do make a profit on it – a profit I can lend, because my profits stay here. Beyond that it is very difficult to dictate to people where their cash should and shouldn’t be, and the decsions are largely dictated by people outside the country anyway, at least for the international groups.

JJ: What were some aspects of the Bahamas’ approach in making itself a favourable tax environment for attracting offshore banking, and are they things that can be applied in the Maldives?

BH: Some of it is historic [in the Bahamas], and that can be an advantage and a disadvantage. It is a disadvantage because you get very staid in your ways and you don’t move as quickly as you should. But the advantage is that you build up in your economy local and imported people who are experts in these areas. The legal and accountancy professions are very experienced in the industry and there are lots of local staff who are qualified trust professionals.

But some of the things that are a real advantage – a colossal advantage – is the Bahamas’ geographic proximity to the US mainland. But if you look at the world’s emerging economies, which are moving West to East, our proximity to India and to a lesser extent Sri Lanka, and with direct flights to most South-East Asian cities, should be a huge advantage for us.

The majority of offshore banking centres do rely on imported people and instiutions. They are truly migratory these days. We are in a global economy now where things move overnight, so if you were able to do the things to attract people, it is very, very doable.

The other thing is having sufficient protection around the business – having a strong regulator, a strong legal system, and probably some degree of monetary protection. If a private bank is bringing dollars into the country, there needs to be some degree of certainty that the dollars can sit in the country quite safely. A lot of the things are already here, and not many things need to be done. There is certainly quite a lot of sophistication in the Monetary Authority, certainly the Maldives’ geographic location is a huge plus, and you already have a tax regime which is friendly to anybody, more or less.

It is doable, but it shouldn’t be considered easy. You also have to decide on a specialisation – if you look at the Carribbean, jurisdictions tend to specialise in one area so you have to pick what horse you’re going to ride as well.

JJ: The ongoing dollar shortage is now among the top issues everyday people in the Maldives are facing. What is your impression of the origins of the dollar shortage, how it can be addressed, and do you agree with the government that it is an internal problem, or is else a product of outside factors?

PH: I’ve only been here for seven weeks so it is difficult to say. A reality of the economy is that we are importing so very much, and we have so few dollar generating industries. In very simple terms, any downturn in the economy incur losses in the economy when turnover drops below break-even level. That is where we are as an economy – our revenue in dollar terms, in terms of the imports we require, is lagging.

We need to look at ways of keeping dollars in the country as much as possible. You touched on the fact that a number of entitites are taking money out of the country – and are free to do so without exchange control. I think we also need to look at other ways of enhancing dollar revenues through fresh or new industries – and I would include financial services among those industries.

It is also an impact of the global [economic recession], and there are only so many things the Maldives’ economy can do. I know too little of the history of the dollar shortage to know the precise causes of it, but I agree that it is a real challenge facing the whole country right now.

JJ: One of the perennial issues is that most of the banks impose a quota on the amount of dollars they exchange for rufiya every day. Obtaining those dollars seems to be an issue of personal connections at whatever bank you happen to bank at – an issue of who you know. Do you forsee a situation where there will be a free-flow of dollars in the near future? Or do you think it will get worse before it gets better?

PH: I can’t really say if it will get worse before it gets better. I don’t see it [improving] in the short-term without some form of intervention, and correction of what is a difficult day-to-day problem for us. I think it may be as good as it gets right now, and it will be something more than today’s economy that will be required to correct the issue. It is hard to say – it is not going to get much better.

JJ: How does the dollar shortage affect the banks? The government is struggling with the problem and people are quick to blame “greedy banks hoarding dollars”.

PH: As all banks do we have an assets and liabilities committee and that is a sign of a bank very actively managing its balance sheet and its liquidity. As with every bank right now, you have a number of calls on your dollars. You have dollar committments yourself – you may have intermediary credit lines, commitments on credit card settlements you have to meet. If you are issuing credit cards to people using them overseas, that is a cash cost to me. We also have committments to try and help our customers as best we can.

However the inflows of dollars we have are really only in two areas – one is acquiring credit cards, so all the dollars from tourists using credit cards come through our accounts and might not stay with us, but we do make some fee income on those [transactions], and the second area is our lending. Hopefully what we earn on our loan is more than we lend once we settle our funding cost. It is a daily job managing that liquidity. We don’t have the luxury of not being able to monitor it closely.

[The dollar shortage] is very challenging for us because we see customer needs we are unable to fulfill, whether it be the guy trying to get money for medical treatment or the trader trying to buy goods from overseas, and we just can’t provide it because we haven’t enough money. We are credentially holding sufficient dollars to cover our short, medium and long-term commitments – which we have to, and which will be our first priority always. However after fulfilling that requirement we not hoarding any dollars – we are doing our best to satisty as many people as fairly as possible.

The challenge for us is that as a bank for the masses that is a very broad spectrum of people – we try to devise systems that are even-handed and fair, but it is difficult to satisfy everybody.

JJ: What kind of impact does it have on foreign investment when you go to a bank and find a withdrawal limit on your account, or a set exchange you can do in a day?

PH: A lot of the foreign investors will almost see their investment as being in a different country [to the Maldives], because you have a domestic economy and an international economy here. The resort business, which is substantially where the international investors are coming from, has clear dollar flows, and no restrictions on funds being repatriated.

Those companies can only speak from their own personal experience, and their own personal experience is probably that they’ve never had a problem getting money out of the country when they’ve needed to, after they’ve fulfulled their obligations.

I think for those without dollar inflows, it is a challenge. Anybody doing due diligence in the country is probably going to look at that as an issue. It is less of an issue if you are in a dollar-dominated business – I’ve spoken to resort owners who have a problem paying their workers because they are trying to get cash from the bank. You could argue that’s a separate matter, but for the bulk of international investors it’s probably not an issue.

If I was coming in to invest in something that wasn’t exclusively earning dollars, then I would have a problem because any investment you make is on the basis of a dividend coming to you. If you can’t repatriate money – through a dividend or a head-office charge – then the uncertainly would make it a consideration for you. Whether it’s a deterrent depends on the potential profit and competitive advantage, and that might be big enough to mitigate those issues. But it is undoubtedly an issue for incoming investors.

JJ: The MMA has been quietly replicating a successful mobile banking system popularised in Kenya by Safaricom’s M-Pesa. What is the status of mobile banking here and what kind of impact do you think it could have?

PH: The first thing about M-Pesa is that it is a cellphone company initiative – Safaricom – as opposed to what MMA is looking at here, which is a bank-led initiative.

JJ: Didn’t Safaricom effectively become a bank?

PH: Yes, but interestingly – and I havent reasearched it enough – they are taking deposits, but are not registered as a bank. The way they get around it is by converting deposits to ‘mobile currency’ which has a 1:1 value with the local currency. They buy and sell that currency at time of deposit and withdrawal – a highly successful model.

Yes the MMA have been engaging with BML, I have reviewed some of the material, but I’ve asked MMA to share more information with me. We already have a mobile banking option as part of a suite of electronic banking options that we offer to our clients. I think the sentiments and objectives of the MMA are first-class, which is to reach the unbanked, or partially banked. We have been doing that as BML – we have branches in the atolls, and we have a dhoni going around the islands – I suppose having a floating bank really is mobile banking!

I think the whole area of using techonlogy to break down barriers is exciting and appropriate, however within that there are solutions that are not appropriate and there solutions that are appropritate.

What we have to do is be careful and not rush in because something looks wonderful but is not right. At this stage we have to tread carefully to make sure it is right for customers primarily, and commercially right for the bank. We cannot enter into things that are substantially loss-making to us, or substantially wrong for us in terms of the risks it exposes us to. Equally we wish to the serve the customers, that is something we can achieve.

I’m very mindful of the difficulties some people have banking with us right now – or in having access to banking at all. I do want to bridge that, and that is a mandate that is implicitly BML’s. Once you are a bank to the masses you are a bank to the masses for life; you can’t go backwards from that.

We are genuinely proud of that, but it is important to look at how we can do it efficiently, with good serivce, and as a cost to business. It should always be profitable – we are not here to be a charity.

JJ: How much autonomy does BML and the CEO’s position have? How far are you able to operate independently of the MMA or the government?

PH: We have a very active board, and it is a board with plenty of experience in many different directions. The relationship between the board and its sub-committees are excellent, and I don’t want autonomy that doesn’t have that. We have a very strong corporate goverance structure and I think that comes out of the previous areas of criticism of the bank, which have since been corrected. They are robust and they work.

We work with the regulator, and I haven’t seen anything that would stop us working as a commercial entitity. We are commercially focused and operate as a commercial entity. I have not sensed any politics in my time so far, in terms of the business.

We know we’re regulated and have a generally good relationship with the regulator. I’ve met with officials and they are doing their job properly and professionally. I don’t feel constrained, but neither do I feel I can run off and do crazy bad things. Which is how it should be – we are properly regulated and governed.

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MP Nazim highlights decentralisation as budgetary concern on back of IMF findings

As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week released its latest update on the Maldives’ finances, prominent opposition MPs have criticised the government’s budget strategy in areas such as decentralisation, despite conceding the need for greater political cooperation from rival parties.

Ahmed Nazim, MP for the People’s Alliance (PA) party and a member of the Majlis’ Public Finance Committee, told Minivan News that he believed current government policy was ultimately stifling economic development, claiming administrative costs within the civil service remained a notable problem.

“We have small percentage [of funds] to invest in the economy.  We cannot move finances to a higher level though as the government doesn’t have the right policies to do this,” he claimed.  “For instance, we need to reduce the number of [inhabited] islands by linking them and cutting the overall number of cost centres required for decentralisation.”

The comments were made as the IMF claimed that the Maldives economy was currently “unsustainable” even after cuts made to the annual 2011 budget, as it concluded its Article IV consultation.

The IMF’s Mission Chief to the Maldives, Rodrigo Cubero, told Minivan News at the time, that while the government had introduced the core components of a modern tax regime that would begin generating revenue from this year, these achievements were offset by new spending on legislative reforms such as the decentralisation act.

Ultimately, the 2011 budget was passed on December 29, days ahead of a constitutionally-mandated New Year deadline, with 69 out of 77 MPs voting to pass the bill with five amendments.

Earlier during the same day, Mahmood Razee, acting Finance Minister of the time, said it would also be vital to try and ensure the predicted 2011 budget deficit remained at about 16 per cent, after coming under pressure institutions like the IMF to cut the 2010 figure of around 26.5 per cent.

While preliminary figures had pegged the 2010 fiscal deficit at 17.75 percent, “financing information points to a deficit of around 20-21 percent of GDP”, down from 29 percent in 2009, the IMF reported.

Ahmed Nazim, who was part of a multi-party evaluation of the draft 2011 State Budget before it was sent for Majlis approval, said that joint committee meetings to discuss the IMF’s findings were set for next week (9 March).

However, talking to Minivan News ahead of these consultations, the PA MP said that he believed one of the key concerns highlighted in the report was that of recurrent government expenditure.

According to Nazim, the costs, which he said resulted from use of electricity and other day-to-day needs, were accounting for about 17 percent of total government expenditure – charges, he claimed, that could have been cut further.

In line with these concerns, Nazim took the example of the number of decentralised administrative posts created through last month’s Local Council Elections as an example of unsustainable spending.

The PA MP claimed that present government policies based on building housing or harbours across a wide number of islands was creating further problems for future national cost cutting.  As a solution, Nazim, claimed that it would be important to consider depopulating and reducing the total number of inhabited islands by offering the population a choice of relocation possibilities.

“It [depopulation] is the only way to reduce the wage bill, otherwise every island will have to have services like health centres and councils,” he said.  “The only way to cut spending is to transfer small island populations to other habited islands of their choice.”

Nazim claimed that a government strategy of attempting to increase mobility of the population to find jobs and homes in other atolls and islands through an improved transport network had failed to achieve these goals so far.

However, the PA MP said that he believed some opposition groups such as the majority opposition the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) had been too “heavy handed” in their approach to working with government on decentralising the country.

“I was advocating that even now, we will work with the MDP to reduce the number of [island] councilors in small areas from five to three posts.  There is simply not enough work for all of them to do,” he said.  “Some opposition took a heavy handed approach meaning there was no need for compromise.  The DRP wanted it their way when it came to each of the wards.”

Nazim claimed that he still hoped to work with the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) on plans to reduce the number of posts on councils. He said this was particularly the case on smaller islands, boasting populations of less than 1000 people, which could be cut to just three council representatives instead of five.

State Minister for Finance Ahmed Assad said that he was ultimately encouraged by the role of parliament and political opposition in working to try and reduce the country’s budget deficit compared to last year.

“If we look back to the passing of the budget in 2010, this time parliament were much better [in evaluating the budget].  They just asked for some shuffling about of the figures,” he said.  “That tells us they tried to work within the framework and limits of the budget set by the treasury and finance ministry.”

However, in considering affordability of the overall budget and government financing in the year ahead, Assad claimed that he believed that cost cutting would have been easier with the support of legislative bodies and the judiciary.

As of January 1 2011, the government reinstated the wages of civil servants and political appointees to similar level before respective cuts of 15 per cent and 20 per cent were made back in 2009. The government claimed revenue expectations for the year would ensure the salaries were sustainable.

Addressing recent controversy, over issues such as a Privilege Bill for judges and parliamentary figures, Assad said that MPs and the judiciary also needed to bear the brunt of cost cutting.

“Civil servants understood the need for salary cuts, but at the same time why should only they have to face it.  It is a hardship everyone should share,” he added.  “It is a matter of sharing the responsibility.  The government was not followed by the judiciary on the issue of wages.”

While accepting that more cuts were needed to be made to the civil service in line with IMF expectations, Assad claimed that it was not possible to make redundancies in the civil service without creating additional jobs elsewhere.

“Obviously, we appreciate that we can’t just make lots of people unemployed from the civil service,” he said.  “But, we can’t go on like this.”

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Economic stability threatened by “significant policy slippages”, warns IMF

The Maldives has suffered “significant policy slippages” that have undermined the country’s capacity to address its crippling budget deficit in 2011 and beyond, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned, in a statement concluding its Article IV consultation with the Maldives.

“On the expenditure side, there have been no net fiscal savings from public employment restructuring, public sector wages will be restored to their September 2009 levels earlier than expected, and the new Decentralisation and Disability Bills will lead to considerable spending increases,” the IMF stated. “Also, the Business Profit Tax will come on stream eighteen months later than planned.”

The IMF warned that the Maldives economy was presently unsustainable, on the back of “expansionary fiscal policies” from 2004 which left the country especially vulnerable to the decline in tourism during the 2008-2009 recession.

The country’s financial deficit exploded on the back of a 400 percent increase in the government’s wage bill between 2004 and 2009, with tremendous growth between 2007 and 2009. On paper, the government increased average salaries from Rf3000 to Rf11,000 and boosted the size of the civil service from 24,000 to 32,000 people – 11 percent of the total population of the country – doubling government spending from 35 percent of GDP to 60 percent from 2004 to 2006.

While preliminary figures had pegged the 2010 fiscal deficit at 17.75 percent, “financing information points to a deficit of around 20-21 percent of GDP”, down from 29 percent in 2009, the IMF reported.

The IMF said that while it recognised “the difficult political situation facing the authorities”, “decisive and comprehensive adjustment measures” were required to stabilise the economy, allow sustainable growth and reduce poverty. In particular, it raised concern about the “lack of significant progress in public employment restructuring.”

“Efforts to strengthen the financial sector and improve the business climate will also be critical,” the IMF said, noting that private sector credit had all but stalled. However it generously conceded that the pace of adjustment “should take into account political constraints.”

The IMF’s Mission Chief to the Maldives, Rodrigo Cubero, told Minivan News that while the government had introduced the core components of a modern tax regime that would begin generating revenue from this year, these achievements were offset by new spending on legislative reforms such as the decentralisation act.

“We see bringing the fiscal deficit down as the key macroeconomic priority for the Maldives,” Cubero said. “A large fiscal deficit pushes up interest rates, thereby undermining private investment and growth, and also drives up imports, putting pressure on the exchange rate and inflation, all of which hurts the Maldivian people, particularly the poor.”

“Further efforts are still needed to reduce the fiscal deficit. Those efforts should comprise further tax reforms as well as measures to reduce expenditure and to improve the channelling of social expenditures to the needy.”

He would not be drawn into the politics of the Maldives’ economic situation, “but what we can say with confidence is that broad political support will clearly be needed both to design an economic programme and to carry it out as planned. That is why we also support as broad a spectrum of consultations with different stakeholders as possible.”

Graduation impact

The Maldives graduated in January 2011 from the UN’s ‘Less Developed Country’ designation to ‘Middle Income’, a move which reduces its access to certain concessional credit and donor aid.

Cubero said that as far as the IMF was concerned, “the Maldives remains eligible to the IMF’s concessional financing under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). The IMF follows its own rules and procedures to determine PRGT eligibility; the criteria include income per capita, market access, and short-term vulnerabilities.”

The Maldives had, he said, “made significant economic progress in recent decades, allowing it to reach middle-income status. However, given the large public debt and still very large fiscal deficit, it is very important that the financing terms for the Maldives’ public borrowing remain as favourable as possible. While reducing the fiscal deficit is imperative to maintain debt sustainability, favourable financing conditions would also help keep debt manageable.”

Confidence

In its report, the IMF was broadly confident that the Maldives could stabilise its economy in the medium term, due to the tight monetary policy of the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) in mopping up excess liquidity, as well as the passing of the Business Profit Tax and a Tourism Goods and Service Tax.

The economy had rebounded strongly after shrinking 2.25 percent in 2009, and GDP growth for 2010 was an estimated 4.75 percent, the IMF said, with an expected inflation rate of five percent in 2010.

As for the ongoing dollar shortage, while the IMF did not actively advocate a revision of the pegged exchange rate, it did call for “continued discussions between the authorities and the staff on this issue while being mindful of the risks involved and the impact on the poor.”

“The MMA continues to ration the supply of foreign exchange to banks, while fully meeting the demand from the central government and some state-owned enterprises,” the IMF stated. “Dollar shortages persist, and the parallel market premium has increased somewhat.”

In November 2010 the IMF delayed a disbursement under the second review of its program with the Maldives, ahead of the 2011 budget.

The delay, Cubero explained at the time, was due to the “fiscal slippages” caused by insufficient progress towards reducing the wage bill and passing tax legislation – most significantly, the Business Profit Tax.

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IMF ‘delays’ third payment as Maldives makes “little progress” addressing deficit

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has described as “absolutely false” claims made this week by opposition-aligned People’s Alliance (PA) MP Ahmed Nazim, that the institution had suspended its support of the Maldives because its program was not being followed.

MP Nazim, who is Deputy Speaker and also Chair of Parliament’s Finance Committee, told Minivan News yesterday that the leader of the Maldives IMF delegation, Rodrigo Cubero, “said so in a meeting on November 4.”

“I think [the suspension] will make it difficult for other international financial institutions and donors to entertain the requests of the Maldivian government in the future,” Nazim said.

“Even though the amount of the IMF program is only US$92.5 million, adherence to the IMF program would have led to comfort letters from the IMF to other donors assuring them of the sound fiscal policies of the government.”

“Absolutely false”

At a press conference held in the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) on Monday, Cubero stated that media reports based on the claims were “absolutely false. That is not the position of the IMF. What we have said is that the disbursement under the second review of the program has been delayed. We have not suspended our program or our relations with the country, and we continue strongly engage with the authorities to complete the second review, and put policies in place to restore fiscal sustainability and economic prosperity in the Maldives.”

The ‘delay’, Cubero explained, was due to the “fiscal slippages” caused by insufficient progress  towards reducing the wage bill and passing tax legislation – most significantly, the Business Profit Tax.

Civil Service without a smile

The country’s financial deficit has exploded on the back of a 400 percent increase in the government’s wage bill between 2004 and 2009, with tremendous growth between 2007 and 2009.

On paper, the government increased average salaries from Rf 3000 to Rf 11,000 and boosted the size of the civil service from 24,000 to 32,000 people – 11 percent of the total population of the country, almost triple that of a comparative island nation such as the Caribbean.

Both these measures – salary increases and civil service hires – doubled government spending from 35 percent of GDP to 60 percent from 2004 to 2006.

Nonetheless, despite the fourfold increase in salaries, a legal scrap this year between the Civil Service Commission (CSC) and the Finance Ministry following a 15 percent cut to civil servant salaries has effectively immobilised the government’s ability to reduce the wage bill.

For its part, the CSC does not contest the crippling state of the economy, but argues that cuts must be distributed fairly. The Ministry of Finance meanwhile accused the CSC of hiding “a political agenda”, and in February filed a case with the police asking them to investigate it on suspicion of trying to topple the government “and plunge the Maldives into chaos.”

State Finance Minister Ahmed Assad explained that the President last year issued an executive order to bring the salaries down, but had been blocked by the opposition-majority parliament.

“The Majlis stood against it,” he said. The government had initiated discussion with the Civil Service Commission, “but it has taken us nowhere and there’s been little progress this last year.”

The disagreement over salary restoration culminated in the Permanent Secretaries of Ministries being ordered to submit differing wage sheets by both the Finance Ministry and the CSC.

Meanwhile, the country’s financial deficit has grown to 26.5 percent of GDP, among the highest of any country in the world, placing the Maldives at risk of economic catastrophe. The IMF refused financing to Sri Lanka because the country’s fiscal deficit reached 10.5 percent.

Budget for austerity in 2011, or else: IMF

The forthcoming 2011 budget, explained Cubero, was “a crucial opportunity for the government to implement the austerity measures much needed. We will return to Washington and wait for the the numbers to be finalised. At the moment, the current policy stance is not sustainable.”

He acknowledged that the government faced “enormous difficulties, political and legal, in implementing its policy decisions”, but reiterated that the entire country was “living beyond its means.”

“With the government borrowing at the rate it has, it reduces the amount of credit available to the private sector, and that constrains the ability of the private sector to provide jobs and employment,” Cubero explained. “That then constrains economic growth. Furthermore, by spending more than it earns, the government is putting pressure on imports and the exchange rate.”

“This is in reality a simple thing. Think of an individual – if a family is consuming more than it earns, the only way to finance that is by accumulating debt. At some point the banks or creditors may not be willing to finance your debt. “

Continued growth of the deficit would impact the population as a whole, Cubero predicted. “We do hope the gravity of situation prevails and a reasonably constrained 2011 budget is passed.”

Last year parliament’s finance committee, headed by Nazim, amended the budget to include an additional Rf 800 million (US$62 million), including the restoration of civil servant salaries following the 15 percent pay cut, and subsidies for sectors ranging from fishing and agriculture to private media.

Media subsidies, when they arrived, were also allocated by the Finance Committee with 50 percent of the Rf 4 million total going to the two wealthiest private TV stations.

The government took a dim view of the ‘extras’:  “It has to be kept in mind that the budget is made up of numbers; it is a mathematical transaction. If things are done for political reasons, the numbers won’t add up,” said President Nasheed in December 2009.

His remarks were met with outrage from members of the Majlis, who interpreted his comments as an attempt to undermine parliament’s role in the governance of the country.

Cubero said the IMF had presented its views of the economic situation to parliament and the opposition, and had held “a frank discussion”.

“We explained that there had a been delay with the third tranche pending completion of the second review. It was a very good and positive discussion, and I sense they have the commitment to do what is needed. They have very good opportunity to contribute to passing a tight 2011 budget, and needed tax reforms such as the business profit tax. Their support and the  support of all stakeholders will be crucial.

“Otherwise,” Cubero stated, “the implications will be negative for everyone. We hope austerity prevails.”

The Maldives fiscal deficit of 26.5 percent is among the highest in the world, says the IMF

Playing politics with the economy

The IMF’s announcement came not without ample warning. In January 2010 it warned that: “Measures that substantially raise the budget deficit, such as a reversal of previously announced wage adjustments, [will put] put the program off track, jeopardising prospects for multilateral and bilateral international financing.”

Asked to comment on that warning at the time, Spokesperson of the CSC Mohamed Fahmy Hassan insisted that according to Maldivian law, the finance ministry had to pay the increased salary that month. In response, Assad pointed out that the IMF only gave economic advice, and was indifferent to a country’s law.

In June 2010, the IMF published its Country Report for the Maldives, which calculated that if the government continued to pursue economic reform at current pace and policy, the country’s fiscal deficit would increase by one percent of GDP in 2010 and 4.5 percent of GDP in 2011.

Meanwhile, the IMF observed in June, parliament passed the 2010 budget “with amendments totaling a seven percent (4.25 percent of GDP) increase over the government’s proposed budget.”

As a consequence, the report stated, “the annual deficit targets for 2010 and 2011 will be missed on current policies.”

Almost a year after the first warning, the generosity of the donor community and an uncharacteristically patient IMF – it has a reputation for being ruthlessly pragmatic with regard to local politics – have so far insulated the average Maldivian from the impact of the horrendous deficit. Consumer spending is booming and mobiles and mopeds abound, although indirect effects such as rising electricity costs and the resurgent dollar shortage have bitten the public.

But the IMF’s announcement today is a ‘shot across the bow’ that leaves the government in a decidedly unpleasant position, trapped between the source of its income – other donors do rely on the IMF’s assurances – and a parliament seemingly unwilling or unable to grasp the full extent of the problem as it closes its doors for the third week running.

Expenditure-wise, the government does not want to endure the loss of votes and most likely, unemployment, that will come with the degree of cuts demanded by the IMF.

As for revenue, vested business interests in parliament are unlikely to see the IMF’s vaunted Business Profit Tax passed unless the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) were to gain a majority. The leaked audio recordings in early July added weight to the suspicions of many, as MPs were heard to negotiate the ceasing “of all work on the tax bills submitted by the government to the Majlis” until, among other things, a no-confidence motion was tabled against Finance Minister Ali Hashim. Nasheed’s cabinet resigned in protest against parliament “scorched earth politics” before this came to fruition.

The IMF did offer some good news. Despite the country’s twin problems of a crippling wage bill and inability to pass tax legislation through a suspiciously disinterested parliament, the country’s core economic base is sound, with a 5-6 percent increase this year on the back of a strong rebound in tourist arrivals.

But the IMF’s ‘delay’ in opening the purse strings for the third tranche ups the pressure and signals an impatience with the ‘business as usual’ approach taken by all parties involved.

So far the MMA’s efforts to drain excess rufiya from circulation have kept inflation under control, but worrying economic signals such as bank restrictions on the free flow of currency and repression of remittances from foreigners’ accounts have been mounting up. Minivan News has now spoken to the managers of several foreign businesses with offices in Male’, employing dozens of people, who say they are being forced to reevaluate the viability of operating in the Maldives.

These problems are are unlikely to be resolved in the long term by the US$78 million fee paid by Indian infrastructure giant GMR for Male’ International Airport, or yet more donor aid, as the government has implied. Aid is a moot point, as in January 2011 the UN graduates the Maldives to a ‘middle income’ country, severing the umbilical cord to both concessional credit and a degree of international aid funding.

Assad insists the government has included this graduation in its predictions, although he notes that the Finance Ministry had banked on the Majlis passing the tax bill by June.

“Some people say [the graduation] will increase borrowing capacity and give us more independence,” Assad said. “But like becoming an adult, it means taking on both freedom and responsibilities.”

And, most likely, severe growing pains.

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High Court concludes hearings into Public Service salaries dispute

The High Court has concluded hearings in the appeal case involving the finance ministry’s order to government offices to prepare salary sheets in accordance with reduced salaries scales, after the civil service commission (CSC) announced the restoration of wages, Haveeru reports.

The Civil Court earlier ruled that the ministry did not have authority to make the order.

Solicitor General Abdulla Muiz spoke on behalf of finance ministry before Judge Ali Hameed on Thursday, saying that the Majlis had not decided to restore civil service wages and no separate budget was allocated for it. Instead, the Majlis decision was to allow the ministry and the commission to work in agreement, he said.

Representing CSC, former communications minister Dr Abdulla Jameel responded that it was against article 96(c) of the constitution not to give the money allocated for civil service wages. The article was included in the constitution because the former government had not kept up with the budget, he claimed. The commission’s independence would not be maintained, said Dr Jameel, if it was required to act on recommendations.

Judge Hameed concluded the hearing and said an additional hearing would only be held if the court finds something that should be clarified.

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