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Comment: A method in madness

One of the most painful, overused cliches of modern times is the saying that insanity is the act of repeating the same action over and over again and expecting different results.

The Maldives, then, can be considered to be suffering from a bizarre national lunacy.

On elections day a little over two months ago, some of us thought we’d finally return to stability. We then also kept our fingers crossed two weeks later – in vain, as it turned out. On October 19, optimistic souls believed Maldivian voters would be a third time lucky. And yesterday, some hoped we would be a fourth time lucky.

And now, some are praying we’ll be a fifth time lucky sometime in the indeterminate future. But as this writer comfortably predicted months ago, there remains a zero percent chance of any free, fair or credible electoral decisions being upheld under the present Maldivian regime.

Foolish assumptions

There is a method in this mad optimism, and it is based on a number of foolish assumptions – the very first being that elections will somehow defuse the two year long crisis.

On the surface of it, it seems rather logical that an election would lead to stability. But perhaps we forget too easily that we did have an election on 7th September 2013.

The elections were scheduled well ahead. The parties campaigned. The observers arrived. Citizens registered to vote.

The elections were even widely praised by experts and international observers as being free and fair. 88 percent of the people voted. The democratic candidate won with a handsome margin.

Except, the Gayoom-controlled judiciary then threw the results right into the trash can on what can only be described as exceedingly tenuous grounds. The third placed candidate Gasim Ibrahim alleged widespread fraud, and the court happily agreed – while doing away with the need to accommodate such inconveniences as any actual admissible evidence. Instead, the judgment was based on a “police report” so confidential that not even the defendants or their lawyers were allowed to have a peek at it. (Our Supreme Court, ladies and gentlemen!)

The elections were annulled. The international community expressed concern. Millions in public funds were wasted.

Having apparently decided to completely ignore the existence of a constitution, the Court then went on to issue a 16 point “guidelines” to the Elections Commission, including a provision requiring the candidates to sign the voters registry before voting could commence – essentially granting a veto to the candidates, who could now permanently hold the country and the electorate to ransom.

A runoff election was scheduled for September 28. The parties campaigned. The observers arrived. Citizens registered to vote.

But any hopes of an election were quickly dashed when the powerful Gayoom controlled militia – unwittingly referred to by the poorly informed as the “Maldives Police Service” – kidnapped the Elections Commissioner and laid siege to the commission. The elections were stalled.

The international community expressed concern. Millions in public funds were wasted.

Amid much drama, yet another runoff election was scheduled for October 19. The parties campaigned. The observers arrived. Citizens registered to vote.

But then, mere hours before voting was scheduled to commence that morning, the Gayoom militia intervened yet again and laid siege to the EC. The election was stalled yet again.

The international community expressed concern. Millions in public funds were wasted.

Then as recently as this week – when the international community threatened and arm-twisted the PPM and JP candidates into signing the voter’s registry at the last minute – another election was scheduled for November 9th.

The parties campaigned. The observers arrived. Citizens registered to vote.

An election was even allowed to take place this time, and declared to be free and fair. 86 percent of the people voted. The democratic candidate won handsomely again.

A runoff was scheduled for today.

You would never guess what happened next.

Mere minutes after the interim results were announced, PPM candidate Abdulla Yameen announced in a press conference that he would not sign the voters registry, thus preventing the run off elections from taking place.

The elections are likely to be stalled. Millions in public funds have again been wasted.

Curiously, it appears the parties will campaign again. The observers will return. Depending on when Abdulla Yameen decides to be benevolent, citizens may yet again need to register to vote.

Even more curiously, it appears many citizens remain inexplicably confident of somehow arriving at a different outcome.

The EC has said it will cost about MVR 25 million in public funds for each bout of this insanity.

The myth of a democratic election

Democratic elections are held between democratic parties i.e., between registered groups that aim to win over people to some vague political philosophy. The elections in Maldives are a different beast altogether.

If it wasn’t already painfully clear to even passive observers of Maldivian politics, the battle in the Maldives is between democratic and anti-democratic forces; between one group that seeks a public mandate, and another that seeks to permanently disenfranchise citizens and has publicly called for military rule. Between one group that wins elections and another that has no use for them, thanks to its control of the judiciary and a state funded militia.

On one side is the only democratically elected President in the history of the Maldives and who now has two further unfulfilled electoral victories to his credit since then.

On the other hand is a motley coalition of a former dictator, his cheerless half brother who is noted in leaked US State Department cables as being notoriously anti-reformist, a network of their fat-cat cronies, and to complete the picture, the far right religious extremists.

Gayoom’s party is not an agent of democracy, nor are its allies. If anything, the PPM is a panic-stricken response to democracy and to democratic reforms that threaten to shake the Gayoom network’s foundations. And that hostility towards a democratic exercise is exactly what has been on shameful public display in the last few weeks and months.

There are no difficult questions here. No moral ambiguity. Surely, to use the words of the great English rockers Pink Floyd, the international community can tell a green field from a cold steel rail.

The international community

In a moment of surprising candour, PPM candidate Abdulla Yameen admitted that he was forced to sign the voters registry against his wishes by the international community. The implication was that he wouldn’t have proceeded with yesterday’s elections – which he wasn’t ever likely to win – had he not been arm twisted into doing so.

The constitutional deadline of November 11 looms large, and the country will fall into a legal void with no political or legal consensus on what happens next. As such, it will fall upon Gayoom’s uniformed militia – ostensibly also the country’s security services – to decide the course of events.

Gayoom’s militia, of course, is likely to use the excuse of the Supreme court ruling to continue to prop up Waheed – perhaps the first incumbent ruler in history to win a mere five percent of the votes in a public election.

This miscarriage of justice only promises further chaos and – one cannot stress this enough – it is absolutely absurd to expect any different outcome.

The Maldivian citizens have protested, and petitioned and voted multiple times – all to no avail.

Perhaps, then, one way to force a different outcome is to force a different reaction from the international community.

In the last two years since the elected government was overthrown, the international community has made endless, meaningless public statements of “concern”; statements that have done precious little to impede the repeated, systematic abuse of human rights and mockery of justice in the Maldives.

In the meantime, police brutality has been richly rewarded with promotions, perks, housing and medals. A runaway judiciary is trampling all over the constitution like a crazed pachyderm. What little accountability had existed before has long since vaporised. The Maldives’ press freedom rankings have fallen like a brick and returned to pre-democracy levels. And that’s before they made the country’s only opposition TV station disappear in a giant ball of fire.

R2P

Perhaps, just perhaps, now would be a good time for the international community to make good on its threats.

The Maldives hasn’t had a legitimate government since February 7 2012. However, after the constitutional deadline of November 11, even the fig leaf of legitimacy granted by the CoNI report and the benefit of doubt granted by international community, purportedly in the interests of stability, will vanish.

Crucial powers such as India, UK, EU, the Commonwealth and the United States, who are in a position to enforce change, must recognise their responsibility to protect the fundamental authority of the citizens of the Maldives over themselves, especially when attempts to exercise a democratic mandate have been repeatedly and so publicly frustrated.

If instead, the international community should choose to acquiesce to this daylight mockery of the public, and recognise the Supreme Court’s blatantly unconstitutional ruling propping up a loser with five percent mandate as the country’s leader, or accommodate the hijacking of the Maldives electoral process, or turn a blind eye to holding to ransom the rights of an entire population, then it very likely that the hopes of democracy will fade from this tiny nation and the Maldives might end up a failed state.

It is trivial to put pressure on the Maldives – a country that depends almost entirely on foreign income and aid to feed and clothe itself. Cut off military and financial aid to the rogue regime until an elected President is sworn in. Halt exports of local fish to European markets. Stop sending tourists to luxury resorts that line the pockets of the Gayoom fat cats. Impose restrictions on foreign travel of regime figures on diplomatic passports. At the very least, stop sending consignments of tear gas, projectiles and weapons that are being used to subjugate an entire population and choke off its citizen’s rights.

The international community could continue to stick to the routine of issuing public statements of concern and privately trying to negotiate backroom deals between the wolves and the sheep on what they’d like to have for supper.

But unless the world powers can be convinced to make much sterner interventions, we are all mad as hatters to expect any change in trajectory in the Maldives.

All comment pieces are the sole view of the author and do not reflect the editorial policy of Minivan News. If you would like to write an opinion piece, please send proposals to [email protected]

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Jumhoree Party requests Supreme Court cancel second round of polls on Sunday

The Jumhooree Party’s Youth Wing Leader Moosa Anwar has submitted a letter to the Supreme Court, requesting that the second round of elections scheduled for Sunday be annulled.

Anwar said in his letter that if the second round of the Presidential election is scheduled for the next day itself, candidates are “being stripped of some electoral rights”, according to local media.

Among the “electoral rights” that he claimed may be lost, he pointed out that since there is a such a short window of time, candidates may not be able to campaign for the second round.

He further said that this may make it difficult for “whichever candidate who finishes third place to endorse the runner-up who makes it into the second round”.

Anwar also alleged that “many people have been deprived of their right to vote in the second round as the Elections Commission gave only a duration of three hours in which to re-register for it.

Earlier today, the Supreme Court has ruled that their verdict on annulling the September 7 election remains in effect, and hence the current President and his government will remain in power if a new government is not elected by November 11.

The September 7 election was annulled – despite local and international observers commending it as free and fair – in relation to a case submitted by the JP alleging that there were irregularities and fraudulence involved in the vote.

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Supreme Court declares current president will remain past November 11

The Supreme Court has ruled that their verdict annulling the September 7 elections remains in effect, and declared that the current President Mohamed Waheed and his government will remain in power if a new government is not elected by November 11.

The verdict – signed by four of the seven judges sitting on the Supreme Court bench – contradicts the parliamentary motion to appoint Speaker Abdulla Shahid as an interim President in the event that a new elected President cannot be sworn in by November 11.

According to local media, the order was signed by Judge Ali Hameed, Judge Ahmed Abdulla Didi, Abdulla Saeed and Abdulla Areef – the same four who annulled the September 7 polls based on a secret police report discredited by an expert UN review.

The verdict was issued in a case submitted by Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) lawyer Ibrahim ‘Wadde’ Waheed, seeking the court to declare illegal parliament’s motion to appoint the Speaker as the interim president.

Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) officers have meanwhile circulated an appeal calling on their fellow soldiers not to obey “unlawful” orders issued by President Waheed or his political appointees, following the expiry of his presidential term at midnight on November 10.

The five-page document, signed by 73 officers including many mid-ranking officers, is titled “An appeal to soldiers to maintain their oath to be professional and apolitical.”

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General Manager of Robinson Club Maldives found dead

Police have reported that the general manager of the Robinson Club Maldives resort has been found dead in a bathroom on the property.

Local media reported police as confirming that the German national was found in the bathroom of his room.

“The incident was reported to the police this morning. A police investigation team is currently in the resort,” said a police spokesperson, according to local media.

Local media reported that the cause of death was unclear.

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MNDF officers sign appeal not to obey government’s orders following expiry of presidential term

Additional Reporting by Zaheena Rasheed

Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) officers have circulated an appeal calling on their fellow soldiers not to obey “unlawful” orders issued by President Waheed or his political appointees, following the expiry of his presidential term at midnight on November 10.

The five-page document, signed by 73 officers including many mid-ranking officers, is titled “An appeal to soldiers to maintain their oath to be professional and apolitical.”

Given that the Article 107 of the Constitution limits the presidential term to five years,
And given that Article 108 of the constitution mandates the election of a president through a secret and direct vote of the people,
And given the current presidential term ends on 11 November 2013,
We do not believe there will be a president and a Commander in Chief on 11 November 2013 if there is no president elect,
And we believe the positions of President, the cabinet and all individuals in political posts will expire at 12:00 midnight on 10 November 2013. With reference to the aforementioned constitutional articles, we believe any order they make in the name of any institution on the army and police is unlawful. We call your attention to Article 245 of the Constitution which states that we do not have to obey such orders.
In order to maintain the oath we took in the name of Allah, we have to protect the Constitution.
We swore to sacrifice our bodies and life to [protect the constitution], hence, we know the fundamental aspects of the constitutions. Neither the Attorney General nor other party have to interpret [the constitution] to us.
Hence, we call on all soldiers to respect the Constitution.

MNDF Spokesperson Colonel Abdul Raheem said he could not verify the petition as he has not seen the petition or received any information regarding the petition.

Colonel Raheem confirmed that the MNDF had promoted over 300 officers on Friday, the last working day before the expiry of President Mohamed Waheed’s term.

Colonel Abdul Raheem said the promotions had been awarded “as per usual procedures”, but said he did not know the specific reason for the promotion of such a large block of soldiers at this time.

An MNDF source meanwhile told Minivan News that the soldiers who had signed today’s appeal “are the backbone of the military, because they physically work out the operational plans. Earlier we saw the leadership’s message, and now the backbone of the military are taking the same stand to uphold the constitution.”

The appeal follows a “letter of concern” sent on Monday (October 3) by senior officers in the MNDF to Chief of Defence Force Major-General Ahmed Shiyam, following the failure of the country to hold scheduled elections on September 28.

An officer who signed that letter told Minivan News on condition of anonymity: “This is not a petition. It is a letter of concern over the Supreme Court’s order to delay elections, the failure of state institutions, and the possible politicisation of the military, and asking that unconstitutional orders not be issued.”

The MNDF reacted by firing, suspending, transferring and demoting many of the officers who had signed the letter, and then introduced new regulation banning officers from inciting “upheaval and chaos [through] speech, writing, action or gesture amongst members of the military.”

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EU refuses to extend duty-free status of Maldivian fish imports on human rights grounds

The European Union has declined to extend the duty-free status of imported fish from the Maldives, following the country’s failure to comply with international conventions concerning freedom of religion.

The Maldives exports 40 percent of its US$100 million fishing industry to the EU, its single largest export partner by value.

Until January 2014 those exports were duty-free under the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) program, a non-reciprocal trade agreement extended to developing countries.

Maldives’ Fisheries Minister Ahmed Shafeeu said the government’s application for a year’s extension under the ‘GSP Plus’ program was declined as it had not ratified all 27 required international conventions.

“The Maldives has reservations to the freedom of religion component. Constitutionally we will not be able to remove these reservations,” Shafeeu said.

EU officials confirmed that the transitional period of trade concessions for the Maldives was due to expire as the Maldives from 2011 was not longer considered a developing country.

The Maldives applied for an extension under the ‘GSP+’ program, a unilateral trade concession of the EU given to a limited number of countries on the basis of good implementation of human rights are labor conventions, officials said, however did not qualify due to the country’s reservations to ICCPR on religious freedom and CEDAW concerning women’s rights.

Under the Maldivian constitution all citizens are required to be Sunni Muslim and the practice of other religions is criminalised. Customs authorities forbid the import of religious items and scan the baggage of tourists arriving at the airport, while politicians frequently use allegations of ‘consorting with missionaries’ as as a political attack.

Foreigner workers such as teachers accused of missionary activity have previously been sentenced but are more usually swiftly deported without trial.

The few Maldivians have publicly tested the religious citizenship provision have faced charges of apostasy, calls for the death penalty and religious counselling while incarcerated, while one journalist who publicly called for religious tolerance narrowly survived having his throat slit in July 2012.

Fisheries Minister Shafeeu warned that the sudden imposing of a 14-20 duty on fish imports would lose the Maldives its competitve advantage over the larger fishing fleets of nearby Sri Lanka and Thailand, and reduce profits to “a marginal value”.

Minister of Economic Affairs Ahmed Mohamed said that at average prices per kg Maldivian companies exporting to the EU would face a loss of US$1.66 per kg once duty was imposed.

“Internationally market price for fish fluctuates,” said Shafeeu. “In good times fish can fetch MVR 150 (US$10) a kilo, while sometimes this falls as low as MVR 45 (US$3) a kilo. Fishermen might not notice the impact [of the duty] immediately,” he said.

Most of the fish caught and exported in the Maldives is skipjack or yellowfin tuna, either processed and canned or sold fresh to overseas markets at a premium due to sustainable pole-and-line fishing techniques.

Shafeeu said the new duty was not unexpected as Maldivian fisheries had been given a three year extension of its duty-free status after graduating from the UN’s definition of a ‘least developed’ country to ‘middle income’ in 2011.

The lack of a year’s extension would force the fisheries industry to speed up exploration of other markets, he said.

“We have looked to the US where we also don’t have to pay duty, also the Russian market. With the Chinese market we have been able to get the health certification we require from them. But the US involves higher flight costs, and the highest value so far has been the EU,” he said.

While tourism is the Maldives’ largest economic sector, indirectly responsible for up to 70 percent of GDP and up to 90 percent of foreign exchange, fisheries is the country’s largest employer at over 40 percent.

The total fish catch has been declining each year since 2006 reaching 83.1 thousand metric tonnes in 2011, leading to fears about the impact of climate change and overfishing by better equipped fishing fleets on the borders of the Maldives’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

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Maldives set for polls after months of turmoil and brinksmanship

Additional reporting by Ahmed Naish

Voting stations will be open November 9 from 7:00am to 3:30pm. Counting will begin half an hour after polls close, with provisional results expected by 11:30pm. A run off will be scheduled for November 10 if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the total votes.

Overseas ballot boxes will open at varying times in each country: Sri Lanka, New Delhi and Trivandrum – 8:00am to 4:30pm; Malaysia and Singapore – 10:30am to 7:00pm; London 9:00am to 5:30pm.

Check where you are registered to vote using the EC’s 1414 SMS system (text 1414 in the format ‘VIS [National ID #]’, or by visiting http://elections.gov.mv/index2715.html

The Maldives is set to head to the polls on November 9 after months of political turmoil and brinksmanship over the suspension, delay, annulment and obstruction of the 2013 presidential election.

Former President Mohamed Nasheed, ousted from power on February 7 2012 by a mutinying police force that attacked military headquarters, armed opposition demonstrators and stormed the state broadcaster before giving him an ultimatum to resign, emerged the clear front-runner in September’s polls with 45.45 percent of the vote.

Nasheed was set to face Abdulla Yameen (25.35 percent), half brother of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in a run-off on September 28. However the vote was suspended by the Supreme Court after third-placed candidate, resort tycoon Gasim Ibrahim (24.07 percent), filed a case alleging vote rigging – despite unanimous positive assessments by more than 1000 local and international election observers.

Gasim was joined in court by Yameen and the Attorney General, Gayoom’s former lawyer Azima Shukoor. Despite a sex video scandal impinging the integrity of at least one judge on the seven member bench, the court on October 8 in a 4-3 majority annulled the vote on the basis of a secret police report that was never even shown to the defence counsel, let alone the public.

That report, since leaked (and translated here), was this morning dismissed by an expert UN review panel.

Following the annulment, the same court held a succession of midnight hearings imposing increasing sets of restrictions on the Elections Commission’s conduct of the polls, including demands that it redo the entire voter re-registration process, and conduct extensive fingerprint verification of forms when no institution in the country had the capacity to do so on such a scale.

One of these restrictions, giving candidates the power to veto the polls by not signing the voter lists – was used by the police as justification for forcibly obstruction the rescheduled election from taking place on October 19, after Yameen and Gasim disappeared and failed to answer phone calls ahead of the signing deadline.

The court’s annulment followed two weeks of street protests, strikes,travel warnings and rumblings of concern from top ranks in the military.

The question in recent weeks, both on Male’s streets and in diplomatic circles, has not been “Who will win the election?”, but instead, “Will there be an election at all?”

“Will there be an election?”

That may finally have been answered after international patience with the delaying tactics appeared to run out last week.

UN Human Rights Commissioner Navi Pillay accused the Maldives’ Supreme Court of interfering excessively in the elections, “subverting the democratic process and violating the right of Maldivians to freely elect their representatives.”

“I am normally the first to defend the independence of the judiciary, but this also carries responsibilities… The Supreme Court appears set on undermining other independent institutions, stifling criticism and public debate, and depriving litigants of the legal representation of their choice,” Pillay stated.

US Ambassador Michele J Sison declared that after “weeks of political bickering and questionable delaying tactics, Maldives democracy is now in peril.”

“Further delays in Maldivian Presidential elections and continued misuse of institutions have already led many in the international community to question the legitimacy of both the process, as well as the outcome of those elections,” she stated.

“Ultimately, the power of any government rests in the consent of its people. If citizens are not allowed to freely express their desires, then those that pretend to govern cannot be perceived as having legitimacy to govern,” she said, calling on Maldivians to “salvage their democratic future”.

The UK’s Minister of State for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Hugo Swire, declared in British parliament that “Anything short of [scheduled elections] will be unacceptable. I say again to those people listening in the Maldives: the world is watching closely and it wants democratic elections, a democratically elected president and no further impediment to that to be created artificially by anyone in that country, which deserves so much better.”

British MP Karen Lumley went a step further: “What happened smacks to me of a child who cannot win a board game, so they tip over the board,” she said of the decision to annul the September 7 vote.

Following a visit to Male’ this week, UN Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs Oscar Fernandez-Taranco declared Saturday a “decisive moment for democracy in the Maldives.”

“It is time to allow the people of the Maldives to express their voice and their legitimate will through the ballot box. A continued failure to do so would be a serious setback to consolidating democracy in the country, with potentially serious repercussions, including a very likely negative impact on the already fragile economy,” he warned.

Surprisingly, the final major obstacle to the holding of tomorrow’s polls – Yameen and Gasim’ s continued refusal to sign the voter lists – suddenly evaporated on Wednesday night following the pair’s meeting with Nasheed and President Waheed.

“We made this difficult decision because of the rising anxiety of citizens and the financial loss faced by the state every day that the vote is delayed, to minimise foreign influence on this beloved nation, and to provide the party’s utmost cooperation to elect a president by November 11 by compromising to prioritise national interest ahead of the party’s interest,” read a statement from Yameen’s Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM).

The party insists it remains skeptical of the Elections Commission and the integrity of the polls.

Gasim meanwhile told local media he had suddenly reversed his decision not to cooperate in an effort to save the nation from “starvation”.

“The country should not be impoverished because of our bickering at this stage. So as the country has reached this state I don’t want to be obstinate and refuse to sign the list,” he said.

He continued to allege that the EC was “biased” and seeking to install Nasheed as president, despite asserting “100 percent” confidence that he would win.

Nasheed was blunt: “The truth is they finally signed the voter list because a German tourist agency told them to.”

An economic resolution

If a political resolution solution was not found and the country plunged into electoral and constitutional limbo, the final resolution was always going to be economic.

The dire state of the Maldives’ financial affairs was revealed this week by Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad, in a report to parliament’s finance committee.

Tourism growth (as measured in bed nights) flatlined in 2012, plunging to negative 0.1 percent from 15.8 percent growth in 2010 and 9.2 percent in 2011.

“The main reason for this was the political turmoil the country faced in February 2012 and the decline in the number of days tourists spent in the country,” the ministry’s statement acknowledged.

Activists this week hijacked World Travel Market twitter hashtag, flooding the feed of the world’s largest tourism expo with images of political brutality and calls for boycotts of Gasim’s Villa Hotel group.

Foreign banks have meanwhile refused to buy treasury bills (T-bills) from the Maldives, with some even refusing to roll over previously-sold T-bills, while others only agreed to buy them at interest rates of 11 percent, Jihad conceded.

While MVR500 million (US$32 million) a month was needed to pay salaries and allowances for state employees, government income in some months was just MVR300 million (US$19 million), Jihad noted, leaving the government no option but to draw on the central bank’s reserves.

Central Bank governor Fazeel Najeeb meanwhile warned that these reserves – barely several months worth of imports – had fallen so low as to place the Maldives on the verge of having to print money.

The State Trading Organisation (STO) then declared that oil supplies would run dry as soon as November 10 due to its US$20 million debt to suppliers, largely a result of the failure of state-owned companies to front up almost US$40 million in payments, and begged the central bank to bail it out.

The Maldives is dependent on oil for tourism, fishing, power and transport, with petroleum imports amounting to US$248.4 million in the first half of 2013 – representing 29 percent of the cost of all goods brought into the country.

A day later, the European Union rejected the Maldives’ application for an extension of duty free status for fish imports, due to country’s failure to comply with international conventions concerning freedom of religion and women’s rights.

The Maldives exports 40 percent of its US$100 million fishing industry to the EU, its single largest export partner by value. The imposing of the 14-20 percent duty as of January 2014 would lead to a loss of US$1.66 a kilo exported, revealed Economic Development Minister Ahmed Mohamed.

On his last day in office, President Mohamed Waheed meanwhile approved the lump sum payment of three months’ wages to cabinet ministers, a total expenditure of MVR 2 million (US$129,702).

“Who will win?”

With the registries signed, election materials have been dispatched across the Maldives with officials already arriving with ballot papers in the southern-most atolls of Addu and Fuvahmulah.

Transparency Maldives has announced it is ready to monitor the elections, while elections observation teams from the Commonwealth, UN, EU and countries including India and Japan are present in the country. Elections Commissioner Fuwad Thowfeek told local media he has been assured by Defence Minister Mohamed Nazim that police would cooperate with tomorrow’s election.

The number of eligible voters in the revote is 239,105, just a few hundred short of the 239,593 registered to vote on September 7, which saw an 88 percent voter turnout.

Campaigning by Yameen and Gasim during the court saga has been muted compared with the lead up to September 7, while the MDP has maintained regular rallies and protest actions following the annulment.

The impact of the annulment and attempts to delay the polls, as well as the behaviour of the Supreme Court and international opprobrium on voter sentiment makes it difficult to predict support for Yameen and Gasim based on the results of the first round. This is especially true in the case of Gasim, whose energetic, incentive-based campaigning ahead of the first round appears to have been diluted by the focus on the court trial.

Foreknowledge of the annulled first round results may also impact non-committal voters in unpredictable ways.

Following the results of the first round, in which the incumbent President received just 5.13 percent of the vote, the Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) which had been in coalition with Waheed defected to Nasheed’s Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and Waheed withdrew from the race.

Based on the results of the first round this could be expected to lend up to five percent to the MDP, helping the party close on the more than 50 percent of the vote it so confidently predicted it would achieve ahead of September 7.

Minivan News will be covering the November 9 election via live news blog.

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Parties hold final events in capital city Male’ on last day of campaigns

Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and Jumhooree Coalition (JP) – the three parties contesting in the November 9 presidential elections – have held final rallies around the capital on Friday evening, ending just in time to meet the 6:00pm campaign prohibition hour.

PPM vehicle round

PPM and its coalition partner Maldives Development Alliance (MDA) organised a round of vehicles as their last campaign event.

The event was led by presidential candidate Abdulla Yameen, who rode atop a party themed convertible car, with over a dozen lorries decorated in party-themed clothed and balloons following him carrying supporters.

Around 50 motorcycles followed the rally, also decked in pink. The total rally had close to a thousand supporters.

The vehicles halted near the Raalhugandu area – the usual rally grounds of opponent MDP – where Yameen addressed the onlookers.

“Do you want to return back to the brutality? Have you forgotten the past?” he asked of them, while urging them to vote for the party.

Supporters in the lorries threw chocolates, leaflets detailing their tourism policy and posters which displayed what they alleged to be corruption during Nasheed’s administration.

MDP march

Maldivian Democratic Party marched around capital city Male’, to the sound of campaign music and loud chants by the crowd of several thousand supporters.

The rally was led by the party’s presidential candidate and former President Mohamed Nasheed, his running mate Mustafa Lutfi, as well as many MPs and senior members of the party’s council who walked along with the crowd.

Supporters carried flags, streamers, balloons and placards showing the party’s slogans and pledges, with “ehburun” [in one round] remaining the main message.

Jumhooree Gathering

Jumhooree Coalition parties gathered near the Social Centre in Maafannu ward, with several hundred supporters in attendance.

The coalition’s presidential candidate and JP leader Gasim Ibrahim, as well his running mate Hassan Saeed joined the gathering.

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Expert UN review dismisses secret police report used to justify annulment of Sept 7 polls

The UN has conducted an expert UN review of the secret police report alleging electoral irregularities in the first round of voting on September 7, which was the primary evidence used by a four judge Supreme Court majority to justify annulling the vote.

“We feel confident in asserting that the election was all inclusive, there was no disenfranchisement and the quality of the voter register met international standards,” read a statement today from UN Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs Oscar Fernandez-Taranco, following his visit to the country.

Former President Mohamed Nasheed led the annulled vote with 45.45 percent, followed by the half brother of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, Abdulla Yameen, with 25.35 percent. Resort tycoon Gasim Ibrahim narrowly missed a place in the run-off with 24.07 percent, while incumbent President Mohamed Waheed just polled 5.13 percent.

The 4:3 verdict annulling the vote heavily cited a confidential police report submitted to the court claiming that as electoral register contained 5623 irregularities, such as 2830 “address mismatches”, and as such these votes were ineligible. The report was not released or shown to the Election Commission’s defence lawyers, although Minivan News eventually obtained a leaked copy.

“The UN recognises the assessment of domestic and international observers that the 7 September election was conducted in a satisfactory manner,” stated Fernandez-Taranco, and reiterated “the deep concerns expressed by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights relating to the conduct of the Supreme Court.”

The second attempt at a revote is scheduled for tomorrow November 9, after police forcibly prevented it from taking place on October 19 after Yameen and Gasim refused to sign the voter registry – a new requirement from the Supreme Court effectively giving candidates the power to veto polls.

In a sudden reversal of their refusals as late as Tuesday evening, the pair sent their representatives to sign the registry on Wednesday

“The UN believes that conditions conducive to free and fair elections exist and therefore welcome the presidential candidates’ signature of the Voter Lists, which will allow for the first round of the presidential elections to be held tomorrow,” said Fernandez-Taranco.

“We urge Government, political leaders and all other relevant State authorities, including the Maldives Police Service, to cooperate with the Elections Commission in the conduct of the elections and to seize the opportunity to further consolidate democracy in the Maldives. It is a process owned by all Maldivians and political leaders should demonstrate strong leadership and act in the best interests of the people,” he added.

November 9, he stated, was “a decisive moment for democracy in the Maldives.”

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