Tag: minivan

Finance Minister to convene pay board despite professed reluctance to cut wages

Minister of Finance and Treasury Abdullah Jihad said today he would avoid cutting the salaries of civil servants in order to tackle the budget deficit which has spiralled to 27 percent of GDP.

He told Minivan News that he would seek to make savings in other areas of expenditure first.

“Civil servants are the lowest down of all government employees. We will try to cut all non-wage expenditure by 15 percent. Salaries will be considered after this,” said Jihad.

The minister’s comments today came after local newspaper Haveeru reported him as having said on Friday that the government was to review the pay of all state employees.

Jihad was reported as having said that the government may have to consider cuts of between 10 and 15 percent in order to save up to Rf2.5billion (US$162 million) from the state budget.

The Finance Ministry’s most recent weekly figures revealed the state’s expenditure to have been 140 percent of its income this year, resulting in a Rf1.5billion (US$97 million) overspend which has been predicted to reach over Rf9 billion (US$584 million) by the year’s end.

However, speaking with Minivan News today, Jihad said that the view expressed in the article was “just an opinion” although he did confirm that a pay board, mentioned in Haveeru, was being formed in order to “harmonise” the pay of all government employees.

The minister said that the review of public salaries will be conducted by a pay review board which will include independent commissions in order to reach an agreement on the necessary reductions.

Sun Online has quoted a senior official at the Finance Ministry as saying that the cabinet had already decided to make cuts of 15 percent to all executive branch agencies although Jihad stressed to Minivan News that no decisions had been made regarding any wage cuts.

“The Cabinet has not yet decided on any cuts,” said Jihad, “we cannot just impose these cuts, we have to agree.”

Parliament’s Financial Committee revealed earlier this month that expected revenue for 2012 had plunged 23 percent , whilst spending was set to increase by almost 24 percent.

Between 2004 and 2009, the country’s fiscal deficit increased exponentially on the back of a 400 percent increase in the government’s wage bill. The year’s 2007 to 2009 included the most significant largesse as the World Bank found wage expenditure to have increased from Rf2billion to almost Rf5billion even as revenues began to recede.

According to statistics from the Civil Service Commission (CSC), the number of permanent civil servants has more than halved between 2006 and June 2011. There has been some contention in the past, however, that the transfer of many civil servants to state owned companies under the previous government masked the true figures.

The Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) published figures for May estimated that the government will spend Rf2.6billion (US$168million) on salaries and wages in 2012.

This represents only 12 percent of the  GDP figures for 2012, predicted in November last year. The figures announced by the finance ministry earlier this month, however, suggest that salaries and wages will now make up 31 percent of the government’s income.

The Governor of the MMA Dr Fazeel Najeeb was reported as saying that the country was experiencing the worst financial crisis in recent history during a finance forum held last week on Bandos Island resort.

“Expenditure in the country has exceeded income, and as a result the budget deficit is increasing. From November 2010 inflation has also been going up,” he said.

The country last year spent 63.1 percent of its GDP on state expenses, Dr Najeeb claimed, adding that only four countries had worse percentages, including Cuba and Zimbabwe.

The Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) figures for May estimated that the government will spend Rf2.6billion on salaries and wages in 2012.

The previous administration of President Mohamed Nasheed saw the government’s balance of payments fall from 21 percent of GDP in 2009 to an estimated 10.2 percent last year, according to the statistics provided by the Ministry of Finance and Treasury.

Jihad contended in  Haveeru that it was the expenses of the former administration that had left the current government in financial dire straits.

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Government’s statement that McKinnon endorsed independence of CNI “misleading”: Commonwealth

The Commonwealth has condemned as “misleading” a statement issued to international media by the Maldivian government, claiming that Commonwealth Special Envoy Sir Donald McKinnon had endorsed the Commission of National Inquiry (CNI) as “impartial, credible and broadly acceptable”.

The offending statement was circulated on May 25 using the PR Newswire service, which PR agencies subscribe to in order to widely distribute releases to publications all over the world.

“We welcome Sir Don McKinnon’s support for the Committee of National Inquiry and are delighted that all the concerns expressed by the Commonwealth will be resolved,” the statement quoted President Mohamed Waheed Hassan as saying.

The Commonwealth Secretariat issued a statement on Saturday in response: “Sir Don has not stated that the Commission of National Inquiry as currently constituted is ‘impartial, credible and broadly acceptable’.”

Instead, the government’s efforts to implement a commitment made to the Special Envoy, to strengthen the powers of the CNI and broaden its composition with an international co-chair and nominee of former President Nasheed, “are still ongoing”.

“Indeed, [Sir Donald McKinnon’s] efforts while in Maldives, and since his departure have been focused on achieving that objective, so that a truly impartial, credible and broadly acceptable Commission of National Inquiry can be put in place within the agreed time-frame,” the Commonwealth stated.

‘Coup’ inquiry

The CNI was established by President Waheed to investigate the controversial circumstances that brought him to power on February 7, following what the ousted Maldivian Democratic Party claimed was a coup d’état orchestrated by members of the former 30 year autocracy.

Police and military officers joined opposition demonstrators in an assault on the country’s military headquarters on the morning of February 7, before storming and taking over the state broadcaster.

President Nasheed subsequently resigned on camera, but later claimed this was under duress. In an audio recording obtained by SBS Australia and aired soon after the events, Nasheed is heard pleading with members of the armed forces for the safety of his wife and children.

The day after Nasheed’s resignation, police launched a brutal crackdown on thousands of protesters, in front of Al-Jazeera and other international media.

President Waheed appointed a three member panel to inquire into the legitimacy of his presidency, including Dr Ibrahim Yasir, Dr Ali Fawaz Shareef and Chair Ismail Shafeeu, Defence Minister under former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom.

The panel was derided by the MDP as lacking independence, a view subsequently shared by the Commonwealth which gave the government a four week deadline to change the composition of the commission to include both a foreign co-chair and a “suitable” nominee to represent Nasheed.

The government agreed to a new June 1 deadline, and then immediately rejected nine of Nasheed’s nominees on the grounds of their “unsuitability”. Conditions imposed by the government included requirements that Nasheed’s appointee not have served in a political position in the past two years, not taken a public stand on the transfer of power, and must “be of good behavior and integrity”.

On Saturday the government issued a second statement – also circulated on PR Newswire – rejecting Nasheed’s latest appointee, Lt. Colonel Zubair Ahmed Manik, whom it argued “does not meet the basic requirement of having an undergraduate degree as per the agreed terms of reference.”

The government expressed “disappointment at former President Nasheed’s continued inability to nominate an appropriate candidate who meets the agreed criteria for inclusion on the Commission of National Inquiry (CNI).”

“The repeated proposal of generally unacceptable candidates by the former President Nasheed suggests a lack of seriousness and willingness to cooperate. The administration has already agreed to change the original terms of reference of the CNI following advice from the Commonwealth and to agree on including a foreign judge as co chair of the CNI,” the government said.

“I suspect this is Ruder Finn at work,” said MDP Spokesperson Hamid Abdul Ghafoor, commenting on the statements put up on PRNewswire. The New York-based PR agency was recently hired by the Maldivian government to counteract negative international media, in a deal thought to be worth US$150,000 a month.

Ghafoor said the MDP had initially demanded equal representation on the CNI panel, and the evening before the announcement was made, had been expecting two: “We got one, and gave up on co-chairing it,” he said.

The conditions imposed by the government were paternalistic and a stalling tactic, he suggested.

“Nobody of sane mind thinks the transfer of power wasn’t suspicious,” Ghafoor said. “This government does not have the moral high-ground to paternalistically prescribe conditions.”

While the situation might appear calm during the negotiations, Ghafoor said tensions on the street and during protests remained high, and that it would not take much for it to combust – “I’ve started seeing signs of impunity [on behalf of police],” he said.

“We are under threat – right now, the Commonwealth is the only thing stopping us from all being arrested,” Ghafoor claimed.

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Challenges to climate change governance: Transparency Maldives

A lack of consolidated institutions for climate governance poses key challenges to the Maldives’ effort to save the country from dangers of climate change.

One of the lowest-lying countries in the world, with an average elevation of 1.5 meters above sea level, the Maldives is extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change, such as sea level rise.

In international climate negotiations, as a developing country and a member of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), the Maldives has been a vocal advocate for strong mitigation and adaptation strategies against climate change.

The country has also been a recipient of large amounts of funding for climate change mitigation and adaptation projects, under both bilateral and multilateral funding schemes.

According to a preliminary report on Climate Governance Integrity by Transparency Maldives, approximately US$160.5 million dollars is currently being spent on various projects through externally funded grants and loans.

However, the report stated that according to the Government, management of mitigation and adaptation projects has proven to be a difficult task as a result of limitations in human resources, institutional capacity, and local expertise in the field.

According to the report, the Maldives “lacks a comprehensible overall institutional framework and comprehensive policy for addressing climate change”.

The report stated that institutional rivalry and unclear mandates have resulted in confusion within institutions, in situations where one project is dealt with by two or more different institutions.

As as example, Transparency Maldives highlighted the Scaling up of Renewable Energy Projects (SREP). The project was initially planned and formulated by the Ministry of Housing and Environment (MHE) but was later handed over to the newly established Renewable Energy Investment Office (REIO) at the Ministry of Economic Development.

Challenges to climate governance include institutional mandates being in a “constant flux” in a transitional democracy, according to the report.

It noted that the former government appointed two presidential advisors – Mike Mason, an expert on renewable energy, carbon finance, and offsetting, and Mark Lynus, an environment activist and journalist – on climate change related policies, “both of whom resigned following the change of power on February 7. No new advisors have been appointed to date.”

The National Planning Council (NPC) under the Department of National Planning (DNP), one of the main bodies overseeing climate change projects, had ceased functioning following February 7 and was awaiting reform, the report noted.

The other major body providing expert advice on adaptation and mitigation efforts, including achieving carbon neutrality by 2020, was the Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC), a 15 member body chaired by President Mohamed Waheed while he was Vice President. The report noted that in 2011 the CCAC only met twice, “even though they initially planned to meet every fortnight according to the government press statement [at the time].”

Speaking to Minivan News, Senior Project Coordinator at Transparency Maldives Azim Zahir said, “New institutions have being created and the mandates are constantly changing. The change of administration in February is likely to affect consolidation as well.”

Another major challenge to climate governance is the absense of a comprehensive database on climate change projects in the Maldives, Zahir said.

“There is not a single institution that has a complete database on climate projects. It is very difficult to gather information and this makes it harder to incorporate anti-corruption safeguards,” Zahir added.

Last year, the NGO stated that it was vital to strengthen the governance structure of the country to properly manage climate change funding in order to meet mitigation and adaptation targets.

The Maldives rose slightly to rank 134 in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index (CPI) for 2011, a mild improvement on 2010 when the Maldives was ranked 143th – below Zimbabwe.

Project Director of Transparency Maldives, Aiman Rasheed, said at the time that the ranking could not be compared year-to-year, especially in the Maldives where there were only a three sources used to determine the index (India has six).

“Corruption in the Maldives is grand corruption, unlike neighbouring countries where much of it is petty corruption,” Rasheed said. “In the Maldives there is corruption across the judiciary, parliament and members of the executive, all of it interlinked, and a systemic failure of the systems in place to address this. That why we score so low.”

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Entrenching the culture of violence among children in paradise: CRIN

February 7 and 8, 2012, was the beginning of a very violent period in the recent history of the Maldives inflicted by its own people, the police and the army, on unarmed civilians, writes former Deputy Health Minister Mariya Ali for Child Rights International Network.

The first democratically elected president was deposed in a coup d’état on February 7. Since then non-violent protests have continued mainly in the streets of the capital city, Male. So far, 412 people have been detained as political prisoners.

Testimonies of male and female detainees confirm that varying degrees of physical, mental and sexual abuse were perpetrated by the police. Violence from the police has been witnessed by children either through their families being directly affected by it or via images on television. Children who witness violence are traumatised with varying degrees of psychological damage that they carry throughout their lives.

This year, the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) celebrated Maldivian Children’s Day in their full army clothing, with a designated area created to look like a war zone, and with officers helping children to hold real firearms correctly in their hands and showing them how to use them. Although the MNDF declared that the firearms were not loaded, it failed to recognise the timing and the symbolic message behind the event.

Against the backdrop of continuing violence, growing religious extremism in the island paradise, combined with the message from the current President Mohamed Waheed – “Be courageous. Today you are all mujaheddin [those who fight jihad] who love the nation” – children are internalising the use of violence as a norm.

Read more

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Comment: Maldives heading towards two-party MDP/PPM system

In many cases social scientists have observed that multiparty systems, especially in a presidential political system, have inevitably transformed into two-party contests. While many parties are usually present at birth of a nascent democracy, as it matures the contest for power between these parties slowly become a fight for survival ensuring that only the strongest parties survive.

The video below demonstrates how multiparty systems filter out smaller parties as the democracy matures:

We are not of the view that a two-party system is better than a multiparty system. In fact a multiparty political system allows for more voter choice. We however do think that a multiparty system is much less likely to occur in a presidential system compared to a parliamentary political system (which is perhaps why MDP was right in endorsing a parliamentary political system when it was put to referenda). Maldivian politics too, seems like it is moving towards a two party political system. While it might be too soon to jump to conclusions, here is how we think it might happen;

The reason why we think MDP and PPM are the most likely two parties to survive is because we believe that they are the two parties with strong and exclusive principles. MDP was the founding party of Maldivian Democracy. It has stood boldly for individual freedoms, social welfare and has continuously opposed the use of force in maintaining social order (at least in principle). PPM on the other hand has endorsed a system Maldivians saw for 30 years where the emphasis is on social order, even at the expense of individual freedoms.

DRP though part of Ithihad (coalition), we predict that them moving away from it. First of all they took the bold move of forcing Gayoom to leave the party, and since then tension between DRP and PPM have been unresolvable.

Most PPM supporters feel bitter about DRP and are less likely to work with them. We think that feeling is mutual from DRP supporters towards PPM as well. The only thing now keeping MDP and DRP separated seems to be their disagreement with Mohamed Nasheed. Even then, we think if the earliest elections move to a second round DRP is much more likely to endorse the MDP candidate over Gayoom.

Given that we feel that both MDP and DRP will maintain similar ideologies the question must be answered as to why we believe MDP will survive over DRP. This is because MDP by far has a larger support base than DRP; whose members seem to be still stuck on crossroads after Gayoom left the party to form PPM.

Secondly, MDP is the party that founded democracy, and has continued to mature with these same principles while DRP was a party used to support an autocrat who they seem to disagree with now. In terms of number and consistency, it’s easy to see why MDP will win over DRP. We also predict PPM to win over DRP in the first round of the next election.

Apart from the fact that PPM continues to win former DRP members, PPM also enjoys the potential support from AP and JP as part of the Ithihad. Furthermore, we think that the lack of an exclusive principle in DRP means that swing voters who decide to vote for democracy will vote for MDP, leaving DRP expecting to win votes only from their own members.

The Adhaalath Party (AP) seems to be losing a lot of support it used to enjoy from the highly religious community in Maldives. The recent scandals, as well as the contradictory statements regarding political activism by their leaders have casted doubt on their sincerity, credibility, and commitment to Islamic principles.

Though AP leadership is expected to campaign with PPM in the second round of the upcoming elections, overtime the votes of AP members are most likely to transfer to a party which they feel, can accommodate a favorable Islamic environment.

If the Jumhooree Party (JP) was to support a principle; it would be in favor of liberalised markets and maximum commercial freedom. They seem to support least possible taxation and most possible freedoms in terms on investment and commerce. We argue that the party is likely to make coalition with a party that agrees to maintain the trade liberalisation ideology. We also would like to point out that such a coalition makes perfect sense for PPM since there seems to be no conflict of interest in adhering to the principles of JP.

Overall, our conclusion is that Maldives is likely to move towards a two-party political system as the political history matures. Perhaps parties like AP or JP might not completely die out, but it can be said with relative certainty that the main battles for presidency is to most likely happen between MDP and PPM.

This article first appeared on the Freethinker Maldives blog. Republished with permission.

All comment pieces are the sole view of the author and do not reflect the editorial policy of Minivan News. If you would like to write an opinion piece, please send proposals to [email protected]

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President Waheed accepts invitation to attend ‘Queen’s Diamond Jubilee luncheon’: President’s Office

President Mohamed Waheed Hassan has accepted an invitation from the Commonwealth to attend Queen Elizabeth II’s Diamond Jubilee.

As the head of a Commonwealth member nation, President Waheed was invited to attend the celebration by Commonwealth Secretary General Kamalesh Sharma, the President’s Office stated.

“Prresident Dr Mohamed Waheed is pleased to accept the invitation for the President and First Lady Madam Ilham Hussain, to attend the Diamond Jubilee luncheon of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Head of the Commonwealth,” the President’s Office stated.

“The Secretary General of the Commonwealth, Kamalesh Sharma invited the President and the First Lady, in an official letter, to attend the luncheon, where Commonwealth governments would officially celebrate Her Majesty’s Diamond Jubilee.”

The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) was today distributing a letter from Secretary General Sharma to former President Mohamed Nasheed, dated December 6, 2011, inviting him to a lunch at Marlborough House on Wednesday, June 6, 2012, to be attended by the Queen and the Duke of Edinburgh.

“This will follow the weekend of official celebrations of the Jubilee in the UK,” the letter stated.

The Maldives is currently on the formal agenda of the Commonwealth’s Ministerial Action Group (CMAG), following the controversial transfer of power on February 7. CMAG has called for an independent inquiry into the circumstances surrounding this transfer of power, as well elections in 2012.

The government – and President Waheed – last week complied with a demand to reconstitute the commission of national inquiry after CMAG criticised its independence, however Waheed also challenged CMAG’s mandate to place the Maldives on its agenda.

Speaking to diplomats at the Taj Palace Hotel in New Delhi during his recent official visit to India, Dr Waheed also accused CMAG of being unduly influenced by the opposition MDP, and attempting to “intimidate” and “punish” the government.

Parties in the new ruling coalition also proposed a motion to pre-emptively withdraw from the Commonwealth. MP of the coalition Dhivehi Qaumee Party (DQP), Riyaz Rasheed, attacked the Commonwealth’s commitment to democracy by slandering the Queen and claiming the UK was not a democracy.

“Look, the Queen has been in power for 50 years. Is that good? No, that’s inappropriate. If we wanted to point fingers, we can,” he said.

“After 50 years, the English Queen, she is physically challenged. But she is still Queen, and if she wants she can remove the Prime Minister. Where is democracy? Where is democracy? That is not a democracy,” he added.

In response, Chairman of the UK’s All Party Parliamentary Group on the Maldives, MP David Amess, was reported to have said in a March meeting that the Maldives government apologise for the outburst, and suggested that President Waheed’s attendance at the Queen’s Jubilee celebrations would be inappropriate.

Minivan News understands that the Secretary General has issued fresh invitations to heads of government in Commonwealth countries that have experienced a change in leadership since the originals were sent, such as Jamaica, Bahamas and Malawi.

Former High Commissioner to the UK, Dr Farahanaz Faizal, said she was not sure if the invitation was re-issued, or if Waheed had replied to Nasheed’s invite.

“In any case, unless the invitation was recalled, Waheed as head of government can attend, as the invitation was to the Head of Government,” she said. “So there is nothing untoward about Waheed attending the lunch hosted by the Commonwealth Secretary-General. It is an invitation for a luncheon at Marlborough House, not part of the UK government’s official [Jubilee] celebrations.”

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Maldives only South Asian country to record tourism decline in Jan-Feb: MATI

The Maldives was the sole South Asian country not have seen an increase in tourist arrivals in the first two months of the year, according to the Maldives Association of Tourism Industry (MATI).

In a statement, MATI said that all other South Asian countries that published tourism statistics had recorded significant increases, with India at the top of the list with an increase of 40,000 tourists in Jan-Feb.

Sri Lanka experienced 27 percent growth in tourist arrivals. Tourist arrivals to the Maldives dropped by five percent during the same period.

According to Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) statistics, Asia-Pacific is the fastest growing tourist region in the world, with South East Asia showing the highest increases, closely followed by South Asia.

The Maldives’ number one tourism market – China – declined substantially in February and March after charter flights were cancelled due to political turmoil.

The market recovered in April with the restoration of these flights, with Chinese arrivals showing a 3.5 percent increase compared to the same period last year, after a massive 34.8 percent decline  in February. The Maldives Marketing and Public Relations Corporation (MMPRC) has predicted substantial growth in June-July.

However the Italian and UK markets reported substantial declines in April, with arrivals plunging 27 percent and 20 percent respectively compared to April 2011.  These losses were partially offset by an increase in German, Swiss and Russian arrivals.

Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that the PATA statistics applied to arrivals so far this year. The PATA figures were for the first two months of the year. Minivan News apologises for any confusion caused.

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Police arrest two for sexual misconduct, during raid on “New Age” beauty salon

Police on Wednesday night arrested a 26-year-old woman and a 40-year-old man suspected of sexual misconduct, after raiding a beauty salon in Male’.

The two were arrested in suspicion of engaging in sexual activities inside a room at the “New Age” beauty salon located on the first floor of “Blue Lake” lodge in Maafannu.

The arrests were made in an operation conducted by the Serious and Organised Crime Department of Maldives Police Service (MPS) following intelligence information received by the police, the MPS claimed.

The case is under investigation by the Serious and Organised Crime Department of MPS.

Shutting down brothels masquerading as spas and massage parlors was a key demand of a ‘mega protest’ on December 23 organised by eight political parties and religious NGOs to ‘Defend Islam’ against the allegedly liberal policies of the ousted Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) government.

The Dhivehi Qaumy Party (DQP) in June 2011 accused the Nasheed administration of “keeping its eyes closed” on the issue, despite prostitution being haram under Islam. The DQP alleged the Nasheed government was not prioritising Islam in the country.

Speaking at a press conference earlier this week, Islamic Minister Sheikh Mohamed Shaheem Ali Saeed claimed the ministry possessed a list of suspected brothels in inhabited islands, “most of which have already been shut down.”

Seven beauty salons had been closed down by police since the controversial transfer of power on February 7.

Adhaalath Party President Sheikh Imran Abdulla had claimed during the December 23 demonstration that there were over 60 brothels in the Male’ alone, double the number of mosques in the capital.

The Ministry of Islamic Affairs earlier this week had said it was formulating rules and guidelines for registering and operating alternative medicine centres, spas and beauty salons to prevent the use of such establishments as a front for prostitution.

The new regulations, to be drafted by a technical committee comprising of representatives from police and relevant ministries, would expand the role of the Islamic Ministry in monitoring the businesses, according to the Islamic Ministry.

In April police claimed to have smashed a Bangladeshi prostitution ring as part of the crackdown.

The suspects – four female and three male – were apprehended during raids by police officers inside Ranfaunu house, based in the Mahchangolhi ward of Male’ on April 9.

Officers reported that although the house looked as if it was built for residential purposes, a reception was found inside and a bell was placed on the staircase.

Inspector Dhaudh claimed that the bell situated on the staircase was suspected as functioning as a warning device used to signal people inside of possible danger.

In June 2011, Sun Magazine was criticised by the Maldives Media Council (MMC) for publishing an undercover account of Male’s illegal brothel scene, dubbed ‘Operation Sunset’, which reportedly involved three Sun journalists visiting massage parlours in Male’ and soliciting sex from the women in an attempt to expose illegal brothels operating in the capital.

The publication subsequently issued a statement apologising for the article’s “lack of professionalism”. However Editor Sinan Ali told Minivan News he was “really proud” of the journalists involved and what they had reported.

“As the Maldives Journalists Association (MJA) has said, this kind of reporting is new to the community and we need to get used to it,” Ali said.

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Comment: Inquiring into the Inquiry

The Commission of National Inquiry (CNI), established under a Presidential decree by Dr Waheed, has been at the centre of much controversy since its inception. The establishment of an inquiry commission after a national crisis can often be seen as a quick win mechanism to demonstrate that the state is addressing people’s demands for answers and justice in lieu of a well functioning judicial system, or it can be a farce.

Waheed, as per usual, went down the farce route. Not so quick nor keen to address issues of legitimacy surrounding his accession to power, but in an effort to subdue national and international pressure (and mainly because of the fact that it wasn’t an early election he was giving into, but a well-staged inquiry) he went ahead with it.

However, if Waheed’s primary motive was to try and placate those ‘questioning’ his position and to stop the MDP from calling for an early election, he has failed. This is due to the individuals he chose to appoint, the terms of reference he assigned, and his coup coalition’s bullheadedness in defending the impartiality of this obviously partial commission. Most of all he failed to note that even those who don’t have the courage to call a coup a coup, – but don’t have anything to lose if it is so concluded – still want to get to the bottom of what happened on 7th February 2012.

Easier said than done, I suppose, when your authority depends solely on the conclusion of the events that took place on a day preceded by a police/military mutiny. While the political bigwigs of the country wheel and deal over the CNI, we must remember that the probable findings of this commission could have huge ramifications for many individuals in involved in this political crisis. The question arises- are we ever going to know what happened on 7/2?

Firstly, for a commission to inquire about a sequence of events as contentious as the ‘questionable transfer of power’, its existence, members and mandate are going to invite controversy. So why shoot it in the foot before it had even got started by appointing Ismail Shafeeu? MDP, CMAG, the wider international community and even ‘Thinvana Adu’ requested Waheed’s administration to ensure that the commission was impartial, and credible. Impartiality, I take to mean as having firstly no political affiliation or as having equal representation by all parties concerned, and secondly, credibility.

The CNI met neither one of these requirements for the almost three months that it was in operation. Time is no doubt crucial to an inquiry of this nature and while it is of an essence to the MDP, it is in the best interests of the Waheed regime for the inquiry to be delayed for as long as possible.

104 days of coup later, you have to wonder, what made Waheed change his mind over the CNI? If they don’t believe the CMAG has any right to a) put Maldives on the agenda or b) any grounds to make these recommendations, why bow down to them? Were some harsh facts made clear to him on his official visit to India? Either way, the gates of the CNI, no matter how reluctantly, have opened, albeit an inch or two. This has resulted in the appointment of a foreign judge as co chair, Nasheed being ‘permitted’ to propose a member to the Commission, and changes to the mandate of the CNI being strengthened, allowing it to summon individuals, accept statements, videos, photos, and most importantly request telecommunication and financial records. These agreements and the resumption of the all-party talks have been hailed as a thaw in national coup politics, and to be fair it is progress, but how much of it is sincere? I know. It’s a naive question, but humour me.

With regards to Nasheed’s representative to the CNI, the public is aware that he has proposed nine names, all of which have been rejected by Waheed’s regime for being too politicised. Nasheed has now been given two weeks to propose an individual to the CNI, who has not served in a political position in the past two years, must not have taken a public stand on the transfer of power, and must be of good behaviour and integrity.

The Commonwealth states that these conditions must apply to all members of the CNI, including ones previously appointed. I wonder what the parameters are for determining good behaviour and integrity, and who in Waheed’s regime decides whether these characteristics are up to par in any individual that Nasheed proposes. Are Waheed and Coup really not going to budge on the case of Ismail Shafeeu – whose stint as Maumoon’s former Defence Minister surely places his ‘integrity’ in question? Forgive me, I forgot this approval of Commission members scenario is a one way street. Coup coalition gets to say the yay and the nay, but MDP do it and they are seen as the uncompromising troublemakers.

Also of confusion is the fact that Waheed earlier stated that he had no role in changes to the composition of the CNI. His Commission members then contradicted this by turning the responsibility back to him. Then we have the fact that Waheed stated that the Prosecutor General is responsible for the Commission, yet all the negotiations and public statements have been given by Attorney General Azima Shukoor, and Home Minister Mohamed Jameel. Speaking of which, who is this all-elusive lawyer to be appointed to the CNI, if Nasheed’s nomination doesn’t meet with the coup coalition’s high approval?

There are also pressing concerns over the amendments to the CNI’s mandate and terms of reference. Although it has not yet been made clear whether the concluding report will still be the opinions of the CNI’s members, or whether the findings can lead to criminal cases, the ability of the Commission to now request phone records and financial statements give it more bite. I wonder how the CNI is ensuring the securing of this information. Are legal requirements going to be placed upon service providers, Dhiraagu and Wataniya, for their cooperation with the CNI? Are all banks operating in the country – notorious for their non-cooperation with the police over previous investigations into alleged corruption – now going to hand over their clients’ financial records without a fuss? And what about the intelligence departments of the Police and the MNDF? How does the CNI confirm that information relevant to the dates of interest to the Commission, obtained by these services has not been destroyed? Or what about officers under oath, who’ve signed confidentiality contracts? Does a summons from the CNI, waive them of the restrictions as applied by these documents? I also cannot get my head around how many of those who will be called upon to give evidence will be doing so without any suspension to their current duties as either law enforcement officers, government officials or civil servants.

Questions, questions, questions, my head is milling with them, and I wait with bated breath to find out Nasheed’s nomination. This individual who is going to have to be the incarnation of all things apolitical and integral in the world. Does such a Maldivian even exist? Someone very special to me who claims that Male’ is the cesspool of humanity would say, probably not. On the other hand, is there a point to all the analysis on the mandate and the members of the CNI? Surely, the findings have already been concluded. Hasn’t the unique Dr Hassan Saeed already alluded to them? There are three possible conclusions – coup/illegal transfer or power, legal transfer of power, or the middle.

I cannot imagine the CNI will conclude it is a coup, considering the fact that there are three members appointed by the coup boss himself on the Commission. Also think about the responsibilities of the international community if it is declared a coup. They’re not going to want the fuss of the Maldives, when they still have Syria, the Eurozone and the Olympics on their plate. Let alone the mess of where Indian High Commissioner Mulay comes into it. It also cannot be concluded as an entirely legal transfer of power, due to the blurry lines around mutinying politicised officers, resignations under duress, opposition politicians celebrating in the Police HQ, hijacking of state media and so on. The politically-easiest conclusion must therefore be the middle.

What will be of further interest is what happens next? What will the conclusions lead to? Criminal cases, blanket amnesties, an exit clause for Waheed, constitutional amendments and of course election dates? No doubt there will be an awful lot of political wrangling over the next few days with regards to the Commission. Political actors on both sides have specific interests. Waheed & Coup will want to seem democratic and budge on certain measures, whereas MDP will want to demonstrate that they are compromising and coming to the table, in order to drive home the importance of early elections. I hope that in the midst of this, civil society groups which claim to be the alternative, ‘third voice’ persist in emphasising that although political stability is important, a CNI that allows for the greatest level of truth and justice is far more essential to the future of the Maldives.

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