Day: April 24, 2012

Fiji: a case study in the realities of Commonwealth suspension

As Maldivian politicians contemplate renouncing the country’s membership in the Commonwealth amidst threats of suspension, a sign of some of the implications the country may face should this come to pass can be seen in the Pacific Ocean-based island nation of Fiji.

In September 2009 Fiji was itself suspended from the Commonwealth, a 54 member state intergovernmental organisation rooted in the former British empire,  after Fiji’s military heads refused to hold previously-agreed elections in 2010 after coming to power.

Fiji’s suspension had significant economic and diplomatic ramifications for the island nation after some foreign powers began to see the country as a “rogue state”, resulting in a significant drop in aid and other assistance, according to New Zealand-based geopolitics consultancy, 36th Parallel Assessments.

Estrangement

Fiji found itself facing “estrangement” from western aid and other technical programmes after it was suspended from the Commonwealth three years ago.

Fiji’s suspension from the Commonwealth saw the country isolated from “aid donors aligned to western democracies”, observed Selywn Manning from 36th Parallel Assessments.

“This brand of authoritarian government caused aid donor nations and bodies (most significantly donor funds from the European Union) to be cut. Donors became reticent to commit development funds to Fiji, and indeed the Commonwealth member states in the Pacific region used this withdrawal of aid funds as a lever to pressure Fiji to return to democratic rule,” Manning explained.

The suspension also led to a shift in attitudes towards investment and business spending in the country, particularly tourism.

“Fiji’s isolation was made worse for its people due to the Commonwealth suspension decision following on from the position taken by the Pacific Islands Forum – a body consisting of 16 independent south/west Pacific islands states. The Pacific Islands Forum leaders had earlier decided to suspend Fiji until it recommitted to free and fair democratic elections,” Manning said.

“Fiji’s refusal to do so caused Australia and New Zealand to express a foreign policy that enforced travel and visitor sanctions levelled against Fiji’s ruling military elite and their families. The two western aligned nations also successfully lobbied the United Nations secretariat to de-commission, or discontinue, Fiji soldiers from taking part in peacekeeping operations around the world. The consequence of these moves caused Fiji’s economy to suffer. By late 2008, Fiji’s economy was in recession and this in-turn impacted on the livelihoods of ordinary Fiji families.”

International standing

The vacuum left by Western-aligned interests was quickly filled by other countries, especially China, Manning said.

China became the “most significant” of these external powers to befriend Fiji whilst more “Western aligned” bodies such as Australia, New Zealand and the wider Commonwealth organisation effectively enforced “estrangement” on the nation, he said.

“The People’s Republic of China (PRC) committed to aid and donor programmes and Fiji’s people began to notice positive change. PRC funds permitted the military regime to put its soldiers to work building new roads and improve infrastructure and government owned facilities. The military regime also permitted an increase in Chinese enterprise to establish inside Fiji, while western foreign and private investment stagnated or declined,” he said.

According to Manning, as Fiji has begun to accede to international pressure to host democratic elections by 2014, one of the key drivers towards the development was the belief that China’s donor support did not account for losses incurred by Commonwealth suspension.

“There are two elements that are able to be identified as significant influencers in [terms of scheduling elections for 2014]. The Peoples Republic Of China’s committed donor programme does not replace in dollar terms the loss Fiji has experienced to its total aid funds received ledger,” he explained.

“This has caused Fiji’s military government to move to sustain donor funds from the PRC while inching toward recreating Fiji as a post-coup democratic state,” he added. “Should elections be held in 2014, Fiji anticipates western aid funders will re-establish contact with its government and re-commit to assistance programmes.

“The second element is the United States’ position to establish warm relations with Fiji, encourage foreign investment in a post-election period and welcome Fiji back as a nation on friendly-nation status terms.”

While it remains suspended from the Commonwealth, Manning said Fiji has still been able to represent itself before the general assembly of the United Nations. However Fiji’s relationship with its wealthy neighbors, Australia and New Zealand, remained terse.

Manning added that Fiji had also retained membership in the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG), a four member inter-governmental body that includes Papua New Guinea (PNG), Solomon Islands and Vanuatu among its representatives.

“The Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) did not suspend Fiji but has given Fiji a degree of legitimacy around the Pacific region,” he noted.

“The MSG was usually dominated by Papua New Guinea’s wishes, but since 2010, PNG has supported Fiji’s Prime Minister and military leader Commodore Voreqe (Frank) Bainimarama’s chairmanship of the Melanesian bloc,” he said. “Once stable in the role, under Bainimarama’s leadership, Melanesian nations have moved to establish unprecedented independence – most recently Melanesian leaders agreed to establish a regional security force called The Legion which would arguably replace regional assistance missions led by Australia and New Zealand should civil unrest cause a Melanesian state to require external assistance to quell an uprising.”

As well as defence agreements, the MSG is also said to have moved to represent its members among global bodies without having Melanesian countries go through the Pacific Islands Forum. Funding to do this has come from donors including the People’s Republic of China, Timor Leste, and Luxembourg.

National mood

Asked how the Fijian public viewed the Commonwealth’s actions to suspend its membership, Selwyn responded that it was hard to identify a particular national mood, owing to the country’s strongly-polarised society around two distinct ethnic groups.

Of these two groups, indigenous Fijians and the Indo-Fijian population, Selwyn claimed the latter had benefited from a move by the present military regime towards a less racially segregated societal system.

“The regime’s goal is to legislate and enforce a new constitution which will remove political protections for Fiji’s indigenous peoples and stamp out so-called corrupt practice by Fiji’s former power-elite. It appears many Fijians, subscribing to both ethnic groups, support Bainimarama’s plan,” he said. “Also, due to staunch censorship decrees enforced in post-coup Fiji it is difficult to analyse a statistically accurate poll of public opinion.”

However, 36 Parallel Assessments, in its research, said that what support the current government did have among its people and international partners could well be dented by a failure to adhere to the 2014 election timetable.

In terms of the immediate future for Fiji, the nation still remains suspended from the Commonwealth, a decision that will be maintained until scheduled democratic elections are held in 2014.

However, Selwyn said that in terms of the Commonwealth’s success or failure in resolving the country’s political upheavals, it was important to look at the organisation’s work within the wider international community.

“The Commonwealth’s demand that Fiji must return to democracy has not set it apart as the stand-alone entity that will cause Fiji to return to democracy. Rather it is a voice among numerous bodies that are pressing the argument,” Manning said.

“It is the cumulative voice that has caused Fiji to take notice and to express a willingness to hold elections in 2014 post establishing a new constitution,” he added. “Should Fiji’s prime minister Commodore Bainimarama be elected as leader in 2014, then he will have pulled off a political coup, South-Pacific style. And that is a tempting proposition for an isolated military man to ponder.”

Maldives and CMAG

The Maldives has already been suspended from Commonwealth’s human rights and democracy arm, the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG). However, Commonwealth Secretariat Spokesperson Richard Uku cautioned against comparing the Maldives against a former member state like Fiji.

“Each country situation that CMAG has considered in the past has had its own particular characteristics. It would not be fair to compare one situation against the other,” Uku said.

As one of the more active elements of the international community in the Maldives following the controversial events of February 7, the Commonwealth has become a bellweather for the response of the wider international community.

The European Union told Minivan News last week that it continued to back CMAG and its Special Envoy Sir Donald Mckinnon in pursuing early elections, and an independent inquiry into the transfer of power that saw President Mohamed Waheed brought to office amid violent demonstrations, an assault on Male’s military base by mutinying police, and the storming of the state broadcaster.

While the Commonwealth has been criticised by Maldivian politicians associated with the new government, Secretariat Spokesperson Uku claimed the organisation’s experience had shown that no member state wished to be placed in such a situation as to be suspended from the group.

“Commonwealth membership carries political, economic and social benefits for member states and is valued by our member states. It also carries obligations about adhering to certain fundamental political values,” he said.

“Suspension from the councils of the Commonwealth has practical ramifications in terms of a member state being excluded from official Commonwealth meetings at various levels and being barred from receiving new technical assistance in many areas.”

Following its most recent meeting on April 16, Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (GMAG) warned of  “stronger measures” against the Maldives if conditions regarding the independence of Dr Waheed’s Commission of Independent Inquiry (CNI) were not met. Some MPs aligned with the government subsequently called for the Maldives to preemptively disassociate itself from the Commonwealth.

State Minister for Foreign Affairs and daughter of former President Gayoom, Dunya Maumoon,  meanwhile accused the organisation of showing “bias” against the new President in its calls for early elections, claiming it had been misinformed. President’s Office Spokesperson Abbas Adil Riza said last week that the Maldives was committed to remaining a Commonwealth Member, but “only under the regulations of our constitution”.

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Mega Maldives, resorts, tourism officials complete whistle-stop tour of Chinese markets

Deputy Minister of Tourism Mohamed Maleeh Jamaal had claimed the Maldives tourism industry expects “phenomenal growth” in the Chinese market, following the conclusion of a travel roadshow representing the Maldives on a whistle-stop tour of five Chinese cities in one week.

The main aims of the tour, according to Maleeh, were to build confidence in the Maldives as a destination as well as portray the country as an investment opportunity. The roadshow was also intended to update the Chinese industry on new tourism developments in the Maldives.

The tour was a joint enterprise with the Mega Maldives airline and took in all of its current Chinese flight destinations: Beijing, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Shanghai. The group also included travel agents, tour operators , and resort companies from the Maldives.

China has become the market leader in terms of visitors to the country. Last year, the number of visitors from China surpassed those from Britain, reaching 198,000. The tour also aimed to publicise the industry’s aims to attract a record 1 million visitors this year.

Recently released figures from the Ministry of Tourism show that total tourist numbers for the first quarter of 2012 were over a quarter of a million.

Overall arrivals for the first quarter of 2012 were up 3.3 percent compared with the figures for the same period in 2011. However, the same figures for the corresponding period in 2011 shown a 12.8 percent from 2010, suggesting a substantial slowdown in growth.

After the political disruptions of this year, there were fears that the now vital Chinese market may have been unsettled. A combination of a quiet period in the Hong Kong tourism market, with the addition of the Maldives being placed by Hong Kong authorities on the country’s travel alerts, saw Mega Maldives cancel its chartered flights from this location on February 18.

Ali Faiz, Marketing Director at Mega Maldives, said that the company had been working hard to educate the Chinese about the Maldives to assuage concerns.

Services from Hong Kong resumed on April 4 and are said by Faiz to be doing well. The amber travel alert, warning tourists to “monitor the situation” and “advising caution”, was introduced on February 8 and remains in place.

“The Chinese market is still a fairly new to Maldives tourism. Most of them don’t understand the geographic nature of the Maldives. This is the difference between the developed markets (Europe) and developing market (China),” said Faiz.

The tourism ministry’s figures reflected this worry with monthly Chinese tourist figures down 34.8 percent for March and 28.4 percent for February, compared with 2011’s numbers.

Despite this, Maleeh said that the Chinese market would continue to grow: “Everyone expects phenomenal arrivals in June and July.”

Describing the tour, he said, “We also wanted to hear from our Chinese counterparts about what the trends are and what Chinese tourists are expecting so we can share this with our industry.”

“This is particularly important as we develop our fourth tourism master-plan. It will help us understand if we are targeting the right market in China,” he continued.

Maleeh also mentioned that attention was given to the recent social and digital media campaign launched shortly before the team left for China. Discussions were held regarding the best way in which joint promotion schemes might be utilised for the Chinese market using social media sites such as Weibo.

The success of the road trip has prompted thoughts of similar events in Japan, South Korea, and possibly Europe, Maleeh told Minivan News.

The Maldives Marketing and Public Relations Company (MMPRC) recently advertised for a PR company to provide “strategic counsel”, “stakeholder engagement”, “proactive” media relations and “key message and storybook development” after the controversial change of power in February.

Boosting tourism confidence was one of the objectives required of the company that successfully bids for the three month contract.

Maleeh commented on this approach at the time of the story: “The main focus right now is increasing investor confidence. We have to include all fronts include economic angles,” he said. “There has been a barrage of international media coverage and we need to try to convert this interest into positive coverage.”

Chinese travel agents contacted by Minivan News during the political crisis expressed concern about cancellations. Shanghai travel agent Sun Yi said she was faced with many cancellations just two days after February 7: ”It has seriously affected our business. Many guests cancelled the Maldivian holiday package which used to be very popular,” she explained.

Social media suggested that the average Chinese traveler was not well informed of the situation in the days following the resignation.

Before most Chinese media outlets had reported news of the Maldives’ change of government, travelers-to-be noticed a post in WEIBO (Chinese version of Twitter) by Maldives resort-based Chinese diving instructor Jai He. After posting the news on WEIBO he was immediately contacted by Chinese media outlets.

Within days, however, a WEIBO search for “Maldives” yielded only a few incomplete statements of the actual events. Most posts voiced only poetic concerns of a tainted dream holiday or honeymoon, or an exaggerated description of the current situation.

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Ports staff allege suspension for political activities

Seven staff at the Maldives Ports Ltd (MPL) were suspended from their jobs at the state company for participating in protests held by ousted Maldivian Democratic Party’s (MDP), a source in the company has confirmed.

Six of the staff have returned to work, while 40 year-old laborer Nizam Abdulla remains suspended.

MPL officials told Nizam they had pictures of him protesting and causing damage to state property outside President Dr Mohamed Waheed Hassan’s residence of Hilaaleege, and told him he was suspended for violating the company’s code of conduct. He was then asked to write a letter of apology to the company’s new assistant CEO, Ahmed Faiz.

Nizam described himself as a prominent MDP activist, but denied being present during MDP protests at Hilaaleege. Further, he said he had attended MDP’s protests while on annual leave.

The MDP alleges President Waheed came to power through a coup d’état on February 7 and are holding daily protests calling for fresh elections.

“I was on holiday. I was not in uniform, I was not on duty. I have the right to go wherever I want and I have the right to express myself. They are doing this to me because I support the MDP,” he said.

The father of four children said he is yet to receive any official communication regarding his suspension, and does not know how long the suspension is to last.

MPL Media Coordinator Ibrahim Rilwan confirmed Nizam’s suspension, but said he did not know the specifics regarding the case. The code of conduct does not prohibit participation in political activities, but staff can be disciplined if they transgress good behavioral norms, he added.

The Maldives Ports Ltd manages Malé city’s sea port and is a state owned company. The Supreme Court in August 2011 struck down a clause in the Civil Service Act banning civil servants from participating in political activities, stating the clause infringed upon citizen’s right to participate in political activities as enshrined in the constitution.

“What right does MPL have?”

When Nizam returned to work on April 23, after a month on annual leave, two guards escorted him off the ship he was working on.

“They told me I was not allowed on the office premises any longer. There was a picture of me in the guard house. The next day, my cards were deactivated and I can’t enter the office now,” Nizam told Minivan News.

He is unable to file a complaint with the Labor Tribunal which oversees Employment Act violations because he does not have any official communication regarding his suspension yet.

Nizam said he had been told over the phone not to return to work while he was on annual leave. “There was no warning. I do not see a phone call as a warning,” he said.

“I don’t know what to do,” he said. “This doesn’t just affect me, it affects my wife and four children. What right does MPL have to do this to me?”

Nizam has been working at MPL for six years now.

MPL’s spokesperson Rilwan said the company has asked staff not to participate in political activities while in uniform and on duty. However, the code of conduct does not forbid participation in politics, and no staff have been disciplined for political activities yet, Rilwan claimed.

“The code of conduct says disciplinary measures can be taken against staff if a member of the staff violate norms of good behavior within and outside the office, but I do not know if this is the case with Nizam,” Rilwan said.

“We are not MPL slaves”

An MPL staff member who wished to remain anonymous said a further six staff at MPL were also suspended for two days in March following MDP’s March 19 protests which sought to obstruct President Waheed from addressing parliament’s opening session.

“MPL senior officials want to make sure their staff do not attend protests. Nizam’s suspension is intended as a warning to everyone else,” he told Minivan News.

“We are not MPL’s slaves. The constitution guarantees us freedom of expression. We have the right to go wherever we want and express ourselves when we are not in uniform on duty,” he added.

Another staff, who also wished to remain anonymous, said he too had been warned by his directors not to attend MDP protests. Furthermore, he said he has not yet seen the company’s code of conduct.

“They do not share the code of conduct when they recruit you. I have not seen this, I don’t think anyone has. I don’t even know what it says,” he said.

“A lot of MPL staff are MDP supporters. So the senior staff send people to MDP protests to monitor and take pictures of who attends. The whole point of this is intimidation,” he said.

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MDP to boycott Majlis sitting to approve VP, cabinet nominees

Ousted Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has said it will boycott Wednesday’s Majlis sitting scheduled to approve President Dr Mohamed Waheed Hassan’s vice-president nominee and 14 member cabinet.

The MDP alleges President Waheed came to power through a coup d’état, and has called for fresh elections and an independent investigation into the transfer of power on February 7.

“We continue to believe the transfer of power occurred through a coup d’état. We do not believe any cabinet Dr Waheed appoints to be lawful. Therefore we believe the sitting scheduled to approve such a cabinet is also an unlawful sitting,” MDP parliamentary group (PG) leader Ibrahim ‘Ibu’ Mohamed Solih told reporters at a press conference on Tuesday.

The MDP had sent a letter requesting cabinet approval be postponed to a later date, but did not receive a reply, Ibu said.

MDP deputy PG leader Ali Waheed said the decision to boycott Wednesday’s sitting was “not defeat,” but a “courageous decision.”

He also said the Speaker could not schedule approval for the cabinet until an independent investigation into the transfer of power is complete.

President Waheed has set up a three member Committee of National Inquiry (CNI), but the commission has come under fire from international bodies such as the Commonwealth, the MDP and local civil society group for lack of independence.

MP ‘Reeko’ Moosa Manik said the establishment of the CNI was proof that President Waheed himself questioned the legitimacy of his administration. Further, even if the cabinet nominees were approved, Waheed’s administration could not submit bills as Waheed’s Gaumee Ithihad (GI) does not have representation in the Majlis.

Article 71 of the parliamentary rules of procedure states the government can only submit bills, including tax bills, to the parliament through the party it represents.

The MDP also sought to obstruct Waheed from addressing parliament on March 1 and March 19. Waheed only managed to deliver a shortened version of the presidential address amidst loud heckling by MDP MPs in the Majlis chamber while MDP supporters and police clashed violently outside. During the speech an MP held up a placard declaring Waheed a ‘coup boss’.

Meanwhile, the MDP has also tabled a no-confidence motion against speaker Abdulla Shahid claiming the speaker follows the house rules at his discretion and does not seek advice from political parties when making major decisions.

In response, Shahid has said: “I was elected as Speaker through a parliamentary majority. Since then, I have upheld and in the future will continue to uphold the Constitution and laws of the Maldives and the Parliament’s regulations.”

The MDP commands 32 of the 77 seats in parliament.

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Former President Nasheed meets Indian PM Manmohan Singh

Former President Mohamed Nasheed has met with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to appeal for Indian backing of early elections, following what Nasheed describes was a resignation “under duress” on February 7.

Nasheed resigned amid dramatic scenes on the streets of Male’, after police joined opposition-aligned demonstrators, attacking military headquarters and storming the state broadcaster.

Singh had requested the meeting, Nasheed’s Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) noted in a statement.

“The Prime Minister said he believed political resolution lay in acting on the agreement made between political parties and mediated by Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai on February 16. All political parties agreed to hold early elections in this road-map,” the party said.

“Nasheed also asked the Indian government to help protect US$873 million worth of investment made by Indians in the Maldives in the past three years.”

Singh addressed the Maldives’ parliament last year in November, the first foreign head-of-state to do so.

“India will be at your side in your transition to a fully functioning democracy,” Singh declared at the special sitting of the People’s Majlis. “We will assist the Majlis by way of training, formulation of rules and regulations and any other assistance that you may desire.”

In his address, Singh praised the “impressive strides in nation-building” the Maldives has made since independence in 1965, with the highest socio-economic indicators and progress on Millennium Development Goals in the South Asia region.

“You have chosen the path of democracy, freedom and respect for human rights. You have shown how even a small nation can stand up and be counted in the affairs of the world,” he said.

“I am confident that the people of Maldives will continue to consolidate their achievements. As an abiding friend, India will always stand by you in these efforts. Our relations are time-tested and I wish to reaffirm that they shall remain so in the future.”

In a statement today, India’s External Affairs Ministry re-endorsed the Indian-sponsored roadmap document drawn up on February 16.

“India hopes that engagement with all the stakeholders in Maldives will facilitate a constructive dialogue among all the political parties and help in bringing stability to the country in line with the Roadmap drawn up by the President of the Maldives,” the statement read.

Earlier this week Nasheed met with journalists, think tanks and political and industry leaders during a visit to India to build support for early presidential polls in the Maldives. Media reports focused on the former President’s concerns that his ousting had left the country vulnerable to growing Islamic radicalism.

New Foreign Minister Dr Abdul Samad Abdullah meanwhile met with India’s external affairs minister S.M. Krishna earlier this month. India is also presently engaging in joint defence exercises with the Maldives coastguard. Newly-appointed Defence Minister Mohamed Nazim has also visited India.

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Criminal Court Judge Abdulla Didi appointed as VP of JSC

Criminal Court Judge Abdulla Didi has been appointed as the Vice President of the Judicial Services Commission (JSC).

Newspaper ‘Haveeru’ has reported that Abdulla Didi’s name was proposed by Parliamentary Speaker Abdulla Shahid, himself a member of the JSC.

Seven members of the JSC present at the meeting voted in favor of Abdulla Didi, the paper reported.

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Defence Minister warns of piracy threat in Indian Ocean

Minister of Defence Mohamed Nazim has spoken to Indian media about the growing threat Somali Piracy poses to the Indian Ocean region.

Speaking to the India-based Daily News and Analysis publication, Nazim warned that “these threats have now come to our close proximity… We live by selling dreams of tranquility and even a small incident in our territory could have devastating implications for the region.”

The comments were made the same week that the the first ever tri-lateral naval exercises between Sri Lanka, India, and the Maldives were held. Nazim told the paper that he believed this united approach was the best way to combat the problem.

The Maldives experienced the first confirmed case of piracy within its waters last month when a Bolivian-flagged vessel headed for Iran was hijacked by Somali pirates before being released a few days later.

Nazim also praised the Indian Military for its assistance in equipping and training the Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF). The Defence Minister visited India earlier this month to discuss potential opportunities for additional training of Maldivian troops in India.

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DRP’s Thasmeen to launch new TV station

Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) leader Ahmed Thasmeen Ali is set to launch a new television channel in the Maldives designed to produce political and religious programming as well as news and entertainment shows.
Haveeru has reported that Thasmeen, along with fellow share holder, DRP member and Deputy Home Mnister Mohamed Saleem, were given a license by the Maldives Broadcasting Commission (MBC) yesterday to launch the station, currently known as “TV-5”.
Deputy Economic Minister Shiham Waheed, DRP member Hussain Mohamed and  Mohamed Nasru will serve as directors of the new channel, according to local media.
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