Tag: budget deficit

Maldives economy “relatively buoyant” but fiscal imbalances continue to grow: IMF

While the Maldivian economy is performing well, fiscal indiscipline remains a problem as budget deficits continue to grow says the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“We see that the economy is relatively buoyant,” said the IMF delegation in a statement given to the media today.

“However, despite the improvement in the real economy, the fiscal deficit has continued to widen and this is because of very high public expenditure and public debt is very high, so we think the fiscal position does need to be addressed.”

Parliamentary debate on the record MVR24.3 billion (US$1.5 billion) state budget for 2015 concluded this week, with opposition MPs expressing doubts over whether the MVR21.5 billion revenue forecast could be realised.

Regarding the recently introduced special economic zones (SEZs), the IMF delegation noted today the importance of a “transparent and even handed” regulatory framework and that any exemptions to tax are “clearly ring-fenced and limited”.

Meanwhile, it was noted that revisions to estimates of the current account deficit had indicated greater stability in the economy than previously thought.

During the IMF’s last visit to the country in February this year, the delegation expressed surprise at the resilience of the economy, admitting that it was still studying how the domestic economy has remained afloat in the face of soaring public debt and persistent budget deficits.

Maldives Monetary Authority estimates of the final current account deficits for 2014 fell from US$562.5 million in April to US$269.9 million in a macroeconomic report released in May.

The latter report,however, contained warnings against “slippages in revenue or current expenditure” which were echoed by the IMF today.

“The 2015 budget includes both revenue and spending measures to tackle the fiscal deficit and we think it’s very important that these measures are fully implemented,” explained the delegation today.

The IMF – which has previously urged greater taxation of the lucrative tourist industry – said today that it supported the recently announced green tax, as well as pushing for more efficient subsidies.

The delegation noted that measures to target electricity subsidies to areas where they are most needed had been included in next year’s budget.

MVR3.4 billion (US$220 million) – or 14 percent of the budget – is anticipated from new revenue raising measures which includes revisions of import duty rates from July onward, fees from investments to the SEZs, income from the home ownership programme, and leasing 10 islands for resort development.

Minister of Finance Abdulla Jihad noted in August that spiralling expenditure and revenue shortfalls could see the budget deficit balloon MVR4 billion (US$259 million), although he gave the Majlis a revised figure of MVR1.6 billion (US$103 million) when presenting budget this month.

While the World Bank recently predicted that the Maldives economy would grow by 4.5 percent this year, Jihad has said public debt is expected to reach MVR31 billion (US$2 billion) or 67 percent of GDP at the end of 2014.

“Despite achieving economic progress, the Maldivian economy is fragile and the Maldives’ financial situation is not in the most appropriate state at present,” Jihad told the Majlis.



Related to this story

Parliamentary budget debate concludes

Finance minister presents record MVR24.3 billion state budget to parliament

Slippages in revenue or expenditure will undermine debt sustainability: MMA macroeconomic report

IMF delegation surprised by resilience of Maldivian economy

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

State budget for 2015 will be balanced, insists President Yameen

The record MVR24.3 billion (US$1.5 billion) state budget for 2015 submitted for parliamentary approval last week is a balanced budget, President Abdulla Yameen insisted yesterday in his Republic Day speech.

Referring to the Progressive Party of Maldives’ (PPM) campaign pledge to balance the budget in two to three years, President Yameen said the 2015 budget has a “primary balance surplus.”

“Looking at the figures of the budget, that is not a deficit we cannot plug. The deficit is a small figure,” he said.

The projected fiscal deficit in 2015 is MVR1.3 billion (US$84 million) or 2.5 percent of GDP.

The deficit was not for the state’s expenditure in 2015, Yameen continued, but for arrears or unpaid bills from recent years.

“So in my book, the 2015 budget is a balanced budget,” he said.

In his budget speech to parliament last week, Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad revealed that the forecast for recurrent expenditure in 2015 is MVR15.8 billion (US$1 billion) while the forecast for government income or revenue is MVR21.5 billion (US$1.3 billion).

The projected revenue includes MVR3.4 billion (US$220 million) anticipated from proposed new revenue raising measures.

A balanced budget would allow the government to “consolidate the economy,” maintain the value of the rufiyaa, and repay foreign and domestic debt, Yameen said.

After balancing the budget, Yameen said the government should work toward achieving a surplus.

The public expected waste management systems, water and sewerage, harbours, and land reclamation, he continued, noting that the MVR6.3 billion (US$408 million) Public Sector Investment Programme (PSIP) in the 2015 budget – 24 percent of the budget – was unprecedented and double that of 2014.

Yameen observed that the PSIP budget was around MVR3 billion (US$194 million) in the past.

While carrying out infrastructure projects in all 188 inhabited islands in one year would not be possible, Yameen said the budget was formulated after prioritising developmental projects.

Moreover, the government would seek foreign aid, soft loans, and concessional loan assistance to finance infrastructure projects, he added.

The budget also includes welfare or social security benefits for the needy, the elderly, and persons with special needs, he noted.

The MVR5,000 (US$324) a month allowance or old age pension would be provided in 2015 as well, Yameen said, while subsidies for food and electricity would be targeted to the needy.

Achievements

On the government’s achievements during its first year in office, Yameen said the economy was improving as a result of the government’s policies.

The acute dollar shortage of recent years has been alleviated, he added, while the ‘unlimited’ Aasandha insurance scheme was introduced to assist persons with chronic illnesses.

While there were only nine pharmacies in the atolls last year, the State Trading Organisation has opened 71 pharmacies in various islands this year.

Moreover, sea ambulance service was provided to six atolls, he continued, and a 50-bed multi-speciality hospital would be built in Hulhumalé within three years.

Efforts were underway to install generators across the country to ensure reliable round the clock electricity in all inhabited islands, he said.

The Special Economic Zone Act would meanwhile facilitate attracting foreign investment, Yameen said.

The government has also decided to provide sovereign guarantee for loans to develop new resorts, he continued, while the guest house island policy would benefit small and medium sized enterprises.

The government’s plan to create 94,000 new jobs as pledged during last year’s presidential campaign was through economic diversification or development and not through the civil service, he noted.

On the pledge to develop a ‘youth city’ in Hulhumalé, President Yameen said the second phase of the island’s development through further land reclamation would begin during November.

Work has also begun on introducing an insurance scheme and providing subsidies to fishermen and farmers, he added.

The implementation of the new national education curriculum in 2015 would meanwhile bring “revolutionary changes” to the education sector, Yameen said.

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Maldives strategically unprepared for SEZs, argues former Finance Minister Inaz

The Maldives is strategically unprepared for the negative consequences of creating special economic zones (SEZs), former Finance Minister Ahmed Inaz has warned.

In an opinion piece published on newspaper Haveeru last week, Inaz argued that SEZs could worsen income inequality, deprive local councils of sources of revenue, and lead to a large influx of foreign labour.

“If [the government] wants to create special economic zones, it should prioritise solving problems in the judiciary that the entire country is concerned about as well as the budget deficit,” he wrote.

Policies concerning the SEZs should be formulated with a long term plan that looks ahead 10 to 20 years into the future, Inaz advised.

Investor confidence should be secured, he continued, for which laws needed to be reviewed through political dialogue.

Speaking at a forum on SEZs last week, Maldives Monetary Authority Governor Dr Azeema Adam also cautioned that political consensus was necessary for SEZs to be successful and stressed the importance of a long term strategic plan.

President Abdulla Yameen ratified the SEZ Act on September 1, which he has said would “transform” the economy through diversification, whilst relaxed regulations and tax concessions were necessary to attract foreign investors and launch ‘mega projects’ to mitigate the reliance on the tourism industry.

Inaz meanwhile predicted that a population of foreign workers many times the size of the local population would be created with the development of SEZs.

“Problems (social, political and economic) as well as opportunities that could arise as a result of the [expatriate] population should be weighed academically and discussed and debated,” he advised.

Inaz served as finance minister during the administration of former President Mohamed Nasheed and oversaw the enactment of tax reforms in 2011.

After leaving the Maldivian Democratic Party in February 2012, Inaz told Minivan News he would “always remain independent and serving the national interest.”

Consequences of SEZs

Unlike China and other East Asian countries where SEZs were created about 50 years ago, Inaz observed that the Maldives has never been a “closed economy.”

A large and cheap labour force and rich natural resources contributed to China’s economic success, he noted.

However, he added, social scientists believe that industrial development came at the cost of social cohesion.

Moreover, large multinational companies exert undue influence over decision-making in China and other East Asian nations, Inaz suggested.

While a free market economic policy has always been pursued in the Maldives, “with the designation of separate economic zones, other regions of the Maldives would be closed economically,” Inaz wrote.

Inaz argued that policies enacted in China to integrate its economy with a globalised world were unsuited to the Maldives.

In addition to establishing infrastructure such as airports, utilities and transport networks, Inaz observed that China trained skilled workers such as engineers, accountants, and lawyers years in advance.

“The question is whether there are nearly enough Maldivians with good work ethics who would be inexpensive (compared to neighbouring countries)?” he asked.

Social and economic problems created as a result of not regulating migrant workers during the past 15 years could increase manifold with SEZs, Inaz warned.

If Maldivians were unprepared for new jobs, Inaz predicted that wages could also be adversely affected in the domestic job market.

Inequality

One of the biggest challenges facing the Maldives was income inequality and the small size of the middle class, Inaz continued, which was most evident in the regional disparities between the capital and outer atolls.

Inaz stressed that empowering local councils to generate income by utilising land and lagoons was necessary to reduce disparities.

While social security benefits reduces the income gap, Inaz warned of the negative impact on government revenue of tax exemptions for investors in SEZs.

China and Singapore created SEZs after putting the state’s fiscal affairs on a sustainable footing, he noted.

The value of the Maldivian currency deteriorated as a result of persistent budget deficits since 2004, Inaz observed, which forced the state to print money to finance deficit spending.

Consequently, the interest rate on treasury bills was now nine percent, he noted, which restricts opportunities for local businesses to partner with foreign investors in the SEZs.

“It would be unwise to establish [SEZs] without easing the burden placed on Maldivian businesses by the budget deficit and T-bill rates,” he advised.

If SEZs are created with the fiscal status quo unchanged, Inaz suggested that the government would lose sources of revenue from taxes and lease rent.

The government’s position in negotiations with potential investors would also be weak, he contended.

Inaz further argued that successive governments had been unable to improve provision of services due to a weak system of governance.

“With this reality and serious challenges, what high ground would we climb for safety from the big waves formed by opening up the whole country through a special economic zones law?” he asked.

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Government expenditure rose 58 percent in June, reveals MMA

Government spending in June rose 58 percent compared to the same period in 2013, the Maldives Monetary Authority’s (MMA) monthly economic review for July 2014 has revealed.

Total expenditure, excluding net lending, “amounted to MVR1.6 billion (US$103 million) in June 2014,” stated the report released on Sunday (August 31).

Total government revenue, excluding grants, meanwhile rose four percent in annual terms and reached MVR0.9 billion (US$58 million).

“The increase in total revenue during June 2014 was largely due to the 57 percent growth in import duty and the 9 percent increase in total goods and services tax,” the central bank explained.

“Meanwhile, non-tax revenue registered a decline owing to the 18 percent decline in resort lease rent. As for the increase in expenditure, it was mainly due to the 30 percent increase in current expenditure.”

Budget deficit

In early August, Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad revealed that the government was facing “great difficulty in managing the budget deficit” due to shortfalls in revenue.

The ballooning budget deficit – which Jihad warned could reach MVR4 billion (US$260 million) or 10.6 percent of GDP – could affect the government’s ability to pay civil servants, he said.

A fiscal deficit of MVR1.3 million (US$84,306) had been projected in the record MVR17.96 billion (US$1.1 billion) budget approved by parliament.

The budget was inclusive of proposed revenue raising measures – many of which had failed to materialise during the previous administration – amounting to MVR3.4 billion (US$220 million), or 19 percent of the budget.

“Expenses keep on increasing, even as we don’t receive any revenue. We did not get the expected revenue this year either,” Jihad said last month.

Despite parliament passing the measures in February – including tax and import duty hikes – Jihad predicted at the time that the anticipated revenue might not be realised in full due to compromises.

“We try to make regular salary payments even if we have to take loans in order to do so,” Jihad said.

The monthly review revealed that the total outstanding stock of government securities – treasury bills and bonds – increased 18 percent in July compared to the corresponding period last year, reaching MVR13.7 billion (US$888 million).

“The annual growth in government securities was contributed by the increase in the amount of T-bills issued by the government to manage its growing cash flow requirements,” the review explained.

The MMA had previously warned that shortfalls in revenue and overruns in expenditure could jeopardise the country’s debt sustainability.

In May, MMA Governor Dr Azeema Adam called for “bold decisions” to ensure macroeconomic stability by reducing expenditure – “especially the untargeted subsidies” – and increasing revenue.

Tourism, fisheries and inflation

Tourist arrivals in July increased 20 percent from the previous month and 14 percent compared to July 2013, reaching 100,191 visitors, the review noted.

While bednights rose by nine percent in annual terms, the report noted that average duration of stay declined from 6.0 days in July last year to 5.7 days this year.

“With the increase in bednights, the occupancy rate also rose to 69 percent in July 2014 from 66 percent in the same period last year,” the review stated.

Fish purchases meanwhile declined by 44 percent to 2,124.7 metric tonnes compared to July 2013, the report revealed.

While the volume of fish exports fell by 54 percent, earnings on fish exports declined by 41 percent, which was “contributed mainly by the fall in export of frozen yellow fin tuna.”

The rate of inflation in the capital decreased to 2.4 percent from 3.5 percent in July 2013 and 3.6 percent the previous year, the review found, which was due to “the slower growth of food prices, especially fish, and the moderation in the growth in prices charged for rent and health services.”

The review noted that the trade deficit widened by 38 percent in July compared to the same period last year “due to the 27 percent increase in imports and the 34 percent decline in exports.”

Gross international reserves rose four percent from the previous month and 42 percent in annual terms, the review stated, amounting to US$497.6 million at the end of July.

“This mainly reflects the temporary increase in foreign currency transfers by the commercial banks in the review period,” the central bank explained.

“As for reserves in terms of months of imports, it also increased in both monthly and annual terms and stood at 3.2 months during the review month.”

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

ACC spent MVR3 million in excess of approved budget, reveals audit

The Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) spent MVR3.5 million (US$226,978) in excess of the annual budget approved by parliament, the commission’s audit report for 2013 has revealed.

“The overspent amount was facilitated by a budget extension of MVR3,605,647 made to the commission by the Ministry of Finance and Treasury,” explained the report released last week.

“However, it was observed that the parliamentary approval for this budget extension was not obtained as per clause 32(e) of the Public Finance Act.”

The report noted that the ACC Act stipulates that the finance ministry should provide the commission’s budget in accordance with the annual budget passed by parliament.

As a result of “the significance of the matter”, the Auditor General’s Office concluded that the ACC’s expenditures in 2013 were not made “in all material respects, for the achievement of its objectives and for the purposes intended in the budget” and in line with public finance law.

“Extending the budget of the commission by the Ministry of Finance and Treasury without the approval of the parliament negates the objective of approving the budget of public institutions by the parliament as set out in enabling laws of the former,” the report stated.

“It also creates the risk of spending over and above the budget set for the public institutions that could consequently increase the budget deficit.”

In early August, Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad revealed that the government was facing “great difficulty in managing the budget deficit” due to shortfalls in anticipated revenue.

The ballooning budget deficit – which Jihad warned could reach MVR4 million (US$260,000) or 10.6 percent of GDP – could affect the government’s ability to pay civil servants, the finance minister had said.

A budget deficit of MVR1.3 million (US$84,306) had been projected in the record MVR17.96 billion budget approved by parliament for this year.

Meanwhile, auditors also found that the ACC renewed an office cleaning contract in violation of public finance regulations.

A contract with its previous cleaner was renewed on September 8, 2013 for a monthly fee of MVR7,420 (US$481).

“This contract was made without obtaining and evaluating estimates from competing vendors,” the report noted.

“According to the commission, seeking new estimates may have increased their cleaning costs.”

However, public finance regulations require estimates to be sought and evaluated from competing bidders for services costing between MVR25,000 (US$1,621) and MVR1.5 million (US$97,276).

“By not following the public finance regulation, the commission has no assurance that it is obtaining the best service at the lowest price.”

Likes(5)Dislikes(0)

World Bank provides US$6.5 million grant for public financial management system

The World Bank has approved a US$6.5 million International Development Association (IDA) grant to support the strengthening of the Public Financial Management (PFM) System of the Maldives, which would help “government institutions to make informed decisions on fiscal adjustments in an efficient manner”.

In a press release on Tuesday (July 15), the World Bank noted that “a high level of fiscal discipline” was needed for translating the current administration’s key policies and objectives into “a medium-term development strategy”.

“A key challenge for the country will be to ensure that the government’s social and economic goals are fully consistent with the urgent need for fiscal consolidation to restore fiscal and debt sustainability,” said Country Director for Sri Lanka and Maldives Francoise Clottes.

“We are happy to assist the government in this endeavour with both financial and technical support.”

According to the World Bank, “the project will help enhance budget credibility, transparency, and financial reporting of central government finances.”

“The entry points for intervention will be the Economic Policy Planning Section, National Budget Formulation and Analysis Section, Debt Management Division, Tender Evaluation Section, Secretariat of the Privatisation and Corporatisation Board, and Treasury and Public Accounts Division; internal audit sections; and line ministries.”

“The project design also includes support to strengthen the institutional framework of key Ministry of Finance and Treasury functions and to enhance knowledge transfer through on-the-job training by technical experts,” said Jiwanka Wickramasinghe, Task Team Leader of the Project.

The press statement noted that the proposed PFM Systems Strengthening Project would contribute to the government’s long-term and “overarching goal by addressing the most urgent PFM weaknesses.”

Macroeconomic challenges

In its annual global economic prospects report released last month, the World Bank had predicted a positive outlook for the Maldivian economy in 2014 with a projected GDP growth of 4.5 percent, “driven by strong tourist arrivals, particularly by robust growth in the Chinese tourist segment.”

The Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) had also revealed earlier in June that economic activity expanded in the first quarter of 2014 “driven by the strong growth of the tourism sector during the ongoing high season of the industry.”

The central bank noted that the 10 percent annual increase in arrivals during the first quarter was “entirely driven by the significant increase (24 percent) in arrivals from the Chinese market.”

Meanwhile, in late May, a delegation from the World Bank led by the World Bank Vice President Philippe Le Houérou – in his first visit to the Maldives since assuming the post in July 2013 – met President Abdulla Yameen and agreed to work with the government in developing a national strategy for fostering growth and consolidating public finances.

The discussion focused on “the need to reduce fiscal deficits, create a favourable investment climate for the private sector and delivery of key public services,” according to a press release from the World Bank.

Le Houérou noted that the challenges faced by the Maldives includes “balancing public accounts while delivering public services on some 200 islands across hundreds of kilometres of the Indian Ocean.

The issue is how Maldives can make the most of its potential in order to achieve inclusive and sustainable development.”

In May, MMA Governor Dr Azeema Adam called for “bold decisions” to ensure macroeconomic stability by reducing expenditure – “especially the untargeted subsidies” – and increasing revenue.

In a report on macroeconomic developments in 2013, the MMA had warned that shortfalls in revenue or overruns in expenditure in 2014 “will undermine medium-term debt sustainability” and adversely affect the exchange rate and prices.

Despite a positive outlook for growth, “there is a considerable amount of uncertainty surrounding the 2014 budget. Overruns in current expenditure will most likely lead to financing difficulties for the government or further crowding out of the private sector,” the central bank warned.

“Any setback to fiscal consolidation either due to slippages in revenue or current expenditure will undermine medium-term debt sustainability and will have adverse implications for exchange rate and prices.”

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

EC awaiting budget from Finance Ministry for parliamentary polls

A budget of MVR25 million (US$1.6 million) allocated for conducting the parliamentary elections on March 22 has not been released in full to the Elections Commission (EC), commission members told MPs on the government oversight committee today.

At today’s meeting of the oversight committee – held upon request by three opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) MPs – EC President Fuwad Thowfeek explained that the commission had to make individual requests to the Finance Ministry to pay bills and settle other expenses incurred in preparations for the polls.

“We have to do this in a very unorganised, unsystematic way,” Thowfeek said, adding that in the past the commission could “limit and plan expenses” as it was working with the full budget.

An official from the Finance Ministry told Minivan News last week that there would not be any restrictions in releasing funds if the ministry was convinced the money was required for election preparations.

While Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad was currently out of the country, Acting Minister Mohamed Saeed informed the committee that he was unable to attend today’s meeting.

Committee Chairman MDP MP Ali Waheed read out a letter from the Finance Ministry assuring MPs that the necessary funds will be provided to the commission.

Additional funds required for the polls had not yet been released because the EC has not exhausted its budget for 2014, the letter signed by Permanent Secretary Ismail Ali Manik stated.

It added that the ministry would settle bills forwarded by the EC.

Pending

Thowfeek however informed MPs that in addition to funds earmarked for political parties and employees’ wages, the commission had MVR9 million (US$583,68) left in its 2014 budget.

The total amount owed for pending bills exceeded MVR9 million, EC member Ali Mohamed Manik noted, adding that the amount was insufficient for conducting an election.

Manik said the commission did not have the funds to hire 10 temporary staff to man its 1414 number, whilst it was also unable to hire speedboats from private businesses as they were no longer willing to raise the credit limit.

The EC found itself without enough petty cash to buy water on some days, Manik added.

Thowfeek meanwhile revealed that  in January a Singaporean hotel sued the Maldives High Commission over unpaid bills.

The hotel bill for election officials sent to Singapore for last year’s presidential election was later settled by the Finance Ministry, he said.

Moreover, Island Aviation refused to transport election officials and ballot boxes for January’s local council elections due to outstanding payments, Thowfeek said.

“So we had to scramble and call the Finance Ministry,” he said, adding that EC staff found it “very difficult” to contact senior officials from the ministry.

The EC’s work was “stalled” in such cases, Thowfeek said: “For example, when we couldn’t send ballot boxes to islands, we had to tell finance [ministry] and they gave an instruction to Island Aviation to raise the credit limit,” he said.

On schedule

Asked by MDP MP Visam Ali if there was any guarantee that the polls could take place on March 22, Thowfeek said the EC’s preparations were presently on schedule.

“However, the suspicion or fear is that while we are working without money at hand and in the hope that the funds will be provided, the certainty that we want for our institution is a bit low,” he said.

Thowfeek told Minivan News last week that the EC has so far been able to manage expenditures with cooperation from the ministry.

“Now we are using the office budget mostly. But the Finance Ministry is releasing funds as we spend,” he said.

EC Secretary General Asim Abdul Sattar meanwhile said today that the Finance Ministry had not replied to four letters from the commission concerning its expenses.

However, Finance Minister Jihad had given verbal assurances to commission members that funds will be made available, Asim said.

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

IMF delegation surprised by resilience of Maldivian economy

A delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed surprise at the “resilience” of the Maldivian economy in a meeting with MPs on the parliament’s public finance committee yesterday.

Dr Koshy Mathai, resident representative to Sri Lanka and Maldives, told MPs that the IMF was surprised that the economy has stayed afloat for years despite longstanding fiscal imbalances.

“For a long time we’ve been saying that reserves at the MMA [Maldives Monetary Authority] are very low and that the fiscal deficit is quite difficult and we expect the economy to run into some problems. But somehow the economy has shown resilience, a lot of resilience, and we’ve been surprised – happily surprised but surprised nonetheless,” he said.

The IMF was interested in “carefully studying” how the domestic economy has remained resilient in the face of soaring public debt and persisting budget deficits, Mathai said.

“Imports are on the shelf. If you go into a shop, you’ll find a wide range of imported goods there. You see people with motor scooters and cars and smartphones. You see people going on travel. All these are available, are done, even while the level of reserves at the MMA is quite low,” he observed.

In attendance at yesterday’s meeting were the committee’s chair, MP Abdulla Jabir, and MPs Abdul Ghafoor Moosa and Mohamed ‘Colonel’ Nasheed.

As the IMF delegation currently in the Maldives was on “fact-finding” or “exploratory mode” ahead of the organisation’s article IV consultation later this year, Mathai told the MPs that the team did not have “comprehensive policy recommendations” to share.

Fiscal consolidation

“One area where we have more clear ideas is an area where we’ve had discussions in the past, and that’s the need for fiscal consolidation,” Mathai continued.

Noting that “fiscal problems have been at the root of so many crises” in countries large and small, Mathai said that the the Maldives had “a government budget envelop that is very difficult to finance.”

“The deficit is quite large. Financing is difficult to find. Banks are not that willing to subscribe to treasury bills. We see treasury bill yields rising quite sharply. MMA external financing is difficult to mobilise as you all know. We’re left then with MMA printing money in order to finance expenditures,” he explained.

A second option was “running up arrears, unpaid bills to domestic suppliers,” he added.

Both methods posed serious challenges, Mathai continued, as the government’s failure to pay its bills “creates ripples effects throughout the entire economy.”

Moreover, printing money to finance deficit spending “puts a lot of pressure on prices” and central bank reserves, he said.

“Because in a small country like the Maldives, when the MMA prints money, that is an injection of purchasing power into the economy, it means more people can import things,” Mathai said.

Printing money therefore “creates increased demand for dollars, increased imports, pressure on reserves,” he noted.

“As I said, the system seems to work. The parallel market somehow is letting the economy work,” he observed.

Solutions

As new sources of financing the budget were not available in the short-term, Mathai suggested targeting subsidies to the poor and increasing tourism taxes.

“The electricity subsidy is one that goes to even the richest strata of society. Basic food subsidies are being enjoyed now by the resorts, and never mind the resorts, are being enjoyed by wealthy foreign visitors who stay at the resorts. That to us seems like a totally unnecessary policy,” he said.

He added that “substantial savings” could be made from the budget by targeting subsidies to those most in need of assistance.

Mathai also argued that the rates of taxation in the tourism sector were “quite low” compared to other tourist destinations.

Mathai said he paid “north of 20 percent” in taxes at a hotel in Fiji while the Tourism Goods and Services Tax (T-GST) in the Maldives was only recently raised to 12 percent.

It would not be “a tax on business” that would slow down the economy, Mathai added.

“Rather it is saying people are coming and enjoying all that the Maldives has to offer, so let them pay something for it,” he said.

As 70 to 80 percent of the Maldivian economy was “driven by tourism,” Mathai said that it was “only natural that the [tourism industry is] contributing resources for the economy to operate.”

He added that “rates of return on Maldivian resorts are among the highest in the world” with profitable payback periods.

However, compared to other tourism-dependent economies, Mathai said that government expenditure in the Maldives was comparatively “very high” due to the geographic dispersion of the population and the large public sector wage bill.

In the medium-term, Mathai recommended taking measures to reform the civil service, improve delivery of public services and increase efficiency by economising.

“Ultimately we need to do a structural adjustment to the budget so that it’s more sustainable,” he concluded.

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)

Government finances “further deteriorated in first six months of 2013”: MMA Quarterly Economic Bulletin

Government finances “further deteriorated in the first six months of 2013” due to a sizeable shortfall in expected revenue coupled with a marked increase in recurrent expenditure, according to the Quarterly Economic Bulletin of the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) released last week.

The central bank observed that the government’s target of reducing the budget deficit to 3.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year from 12.6 percent in 2012 “now seems rather challenging.”

“These developments have resulted in a widening of the budget deficit as indicated by the large financing requirement of the government during the first six months of 2013. The difficulties in accessing long-term foreign funds to finance the budget deficit resulted in the government resorting to the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) and other domestic sources to finance its growing deficit,” the report stated.

The economic bulletin explained that around 15 percent of total revenue budgeted for 2013 – MVR1.8 billion (US$116.7 million ) – was to be raised from new revenue measures, “which so far have not materialised.”

The revenue raising measures proposed in the 2013 budget included hiking Tourism Goods and Services Tax (T-GST) to 15 percent from July 2013 onward, raising airport service charge to US$30, leasing 14 islands for resort development, raising tariffs on oil, introducing GST for telecom services, and “selectively” reversing import duty reductions.

In April, parliament rejected government-sponsored legislation to raise the departure tax on outgoing passengers, prompting Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad to seek parliamentary approval to divert MVR 650 million (US$42 million) allocated for infrastructure projects in the budget to cover recurrent expenditure.

The move followed a cabinet decision to delay implementation of new development projects financed out of the budget due to shortfalls in revenue.

The economic bulletin meanwhile revealed that total revenue in the first half of this year (MVR5.9 billion or US$382 million) increased by 22 percent compared to 2012 on the back of a 35 percent increase in tax revenue.

Tax revenue was “boosted by favourable receipts from GST [Goods and Service Tax] and Business Profit Tax (BPT).”

While GST receipts rose by 46 percent, “contributed by the increase in the rate of GST on the tourism sector (T-GST), from 6% to 8% on 1 January 2013,” BPT receipts increased by 83 percent.

The MMA report explained that BPT collection this year was “based on financial returns for the twelve months ending June 2012, while the BPT collections made in 2012 were based on the financial returns of for the six months ending August 2011.”

Growing government spending

The economic bulletin also revealed that the total government expenditure of MVR6.7 billion (US$435 million) in the first half of 2013 was 8 percent higher than the same period in 2012.

The growth of government spending was “entirely due to the 21 percent (MVR965.3 million) growth in recurrent expenditure, which was partly offset by the 26 percent (MVR440.6 million) decline in capital expenditure during the period.”

Capital expenditure declined due to the government’s decision to suspend infrastructure projects financed out of the budget “in the face of significant shortfalls in revenue due to the inability to implement new revenue measures.”

The increase of recurrent expenditure was meanwhile “driven by the increase in spending on wages and salaries and government pension contributions, both of which largely reflects the transfer of employees in health corporations to civil service commission and employees in Aviation Security Service to Ministry of Defence and National Security starting from January 2013.”

In its professional opinion on the budget proposed for 2013, the Auditor General’s Office had suggested “major changes” to right-size the public sector and “control the salary of state employees and expenditure related to employees” to rein in the budget deficit.

The Auditor General observed that, compared to 2012, the number of state employees was set to increase from 32,868 to 40,333 – resulting in MVR 1.3 billion (US$84.3 million) of additional expenditure in 2013.

This anticipated increase included 864 new staff to be hired by the Maldives Police Service (MPS) and Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF).

Deficit financing

The budget deficit forecast for 2013 was MVR 2.33 billion (US$149 million) – to be financed by MVR 1.15 billion (US$74.5 million) in foreign loans and MVR 1.17 billion (US$75.8 million) in domestic finance.

The MMA’s economic bulletin noted that the budget deficit was largely financed from domestic sources, including the issuance of treasury bills (T-bills) to banks and non-bank sectors.

“At the end of June 2013 the total outstanding debt stock of government securities (T-bills and T-bonds) rose to MVR11,702.3 million which reflects a net issuance of MVR586.9 million in the first half of 2013 compared with MVR615.8 million in the same period of 2012,” it stated.

“Meanwhile, with the increasing challenges faced by the government in financing its growing deficit through domestic sources, the government at times had to resort to the MMA, to finance its deficit. During the first six months of 2013, the change in MMA net credit to government increased to MVR781.0 million from MVR131.2 million in the first six months of 2012.”

The country’s trade deficit also widened in 2013 compared to the same period last year due to higher level of imports, which “reflects the increase in domestic demand driven by economic recovery and the increase in government expenditure.”

While gross international reserves increased in the first six months of 2013 due to the “accumulation of foreign assets by the commercial banks,” the bulletin noted that, “in terms of import cover, gross reserves remained unchanged at 2.5 months in June 2013 reflecting the acceleration in import growth.”

Likes(0)Dislikes(0)