MPs quiz finance minister about revenue raising measures

MPs on the budget review committee quizzed Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad yesterday about revenue raising measures proposed within the record MVR24.3 billion (US$1.5 billion) state budget for 2015.

Briefing the committee yesterday (November 10), Jihad explained that MVR3.4 billion (US$220 million) in additional revenue is anticipated from raising import duty rates from July onward and introducing a ‘green tax’ for tourists.

Additionally, acquisition fees from investments to special economic zones (SEZs), income from the home ownership programme, and leasing 10 islands for resort development would help raise the forecast revenue.

The minister also told the committee that domestic debt had reached about MVR20 billion (US$1.2 billion)- 39 percent of GDP -making the rolling over of T-bills “a nightmare”.

The government was considering increasing custom duties “mostly for luxury items, or items that are harmful to the environment or health,” he said.

The cabinet’s economic council has not yet finalised the import duty or tariff revisions, Jihad noted, though he did reveal that the items under consideration include tobacco, perfume, and vehicles.

Tariffs for tobacco would be raised from the current 150 percent to 300 percent while duty would be raised from 100 to 150 percent for cars, and zero to 10 percent for perfume, Jihad said.

Asked if higher custom duties would lead to higher prices, Jihad said the impact on the inflation rate would have to be studied, which would take time to complete.

Jihad stressed that the government has ceased deficit monetisation – borrowing money from the central bank to finance the deficit – in May, as a result of which the inflation rate was reduced to 1.4 percent.

In April, parliament approved import duty hikes for a range of goods proposed by the government as a revenue raising measure.

Meanwhile, the forecast for income from SEZ acquisition fees is US$100 million, Jihad revealed, which is expected by August 2015.

A further MVR400 million (US$25.9 million) is forecast from leasing and sale of land from across the country, Jihad said – in particular, plots from unused reclaimed land in various islands.

The state-owned land designated for leasing or sale falls under three categories, he explained, which were residential, commercial, and industrial.

Moreover, 10 new islands would be leased next year for resort development, he continued, which would generate income for the government in the form of acquisition costs.

As an incentive or relief for new resorts with development stalled due to financial constraints, Jihad said the government would waive import duties for construction material or capital goods next year.

Tourism Minister Ahmed Adeeb revealed yesterday that a green tax of US$6 per night would be introduced in November 2015 and guest houses would be exempt from the tax.

Jihad said the income from the green tax would be used for water, sewerage, and coastal protection projects.

Of the proposed revenue raising measures, import duty revisions and introduction of a green tax would be subject to parliamentary approval, which the finance minister hoped would be granted as the budget was passed.

Legislative compromises to new revenue measures led Jihad to express fears in August that the predicted state deficit for 2014 would more than double in 2014.

State debt

The outstanding stock of treasury bills (T-bills) is currently MVR10 billion (US$648.5 million), said the finance minister.

In his budget speech last week, Jihad observed that the state’s debt would reach MVR31 billion (US$2 billion) or 67 percent of GDP by the end of 2014.

Expenditure on state employees in 2014 would reach MVR15.8 billion (US$1 billion), Jihad observed, while MVR3.2 billion (US$207 million) would have been spent on subsidies and social security benefits.

Consequently, the government was facing serious difficulties in “managing the state’s cash flow and financing the budget” as well as securing loans for budget support, Jihad said.

According to the central bank, the total outstanding stock of government securities was MVR13.6 billion (US$881 million) at the end of September.

Spiralling debt is threatening “the economy’s health”, Jihad said yesterday, with the rolling over T-bills proving to be difficult as the ministry has to plead with banks for extension of repayment periods.

“For example, if MVR600 million matures this week and there is MVR700 million in the public bank account, if the MVR600 million is rolled over there’ll be MVR100 million. How can we run the state with that? It can’t be done,” he explained.

The solution was raising additional revenue by utilising resources such as uninhabited islands, he continued, and appealed for cooperation from parliament. Additionally, the government was trying to extend the periods for repayment of debt.

The interest rate for T-bills is currently 7.5 percent, Jihad said, down from 10 percent before the current administration took office.

“This year we estimate that MVR1.2 billion worth of T-bills have been used by the state for finances. In 2015, it will be MVR440 million,” he noted.

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IMF delegation surprised by resilience of Maldivian economy

A delegation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed surprise at the “resilience” of the Maldivian economy in a meeting with MPs on the parliament’s public finance committee yesterday.

Dr Koshy Mathai, resident representative to Sri Lanka and Maldives, told MPs that the IMF was surprised that the economy has stayed afloat for years despite longstanding fiscal imbalances.

“For a long time we’ve been saying that reserves at the MMA [Maldives Monetary Authority] are very low and that the fiscal deficit is quite difficult and we expect the economy to run into some problems. But somehow the economy has shown resilience, a lot of resilience, and we’ve been surprised – happily surprised but surprised nonetheless,” he said.

The IMF was interested in “carefully studying” how the domestic economy has remained resilient in the face of soaring public debt and persisting budget deficits, Mathai said.

“Imports are on the shelf. If you go into a shop, you’ll find a wide range of imported goods there. You see people with motor scooters and cars and smartphones. You see people going on travel. All these are available, are done, even while the level of reserves at the MMA is quite low,” he observed.

In attendance at yesterday’s meeting were the committee’s chair, MP Abdulla Jabir, and MPs Abdul Ghafoor Moosa and Mohamed ‘Colonel’ Nasheed.

As the IMF delegation currently in the Maldives was on “fact-finding” or “exploratory mode” ahead of the organisation’s article IV consultation later this year, Mathai told the MPs that the team did not have “comprehensive policy recommendations” to share.

Fiscal consolidation

“One area where we have more clear ideas is an area where we’ve had discussions in the past, and that’s the need for fiscal consolidation,” Mathai continued.

Noting that “fiscal problems have been at the root of so many crises” in countries large and small, Mathai said that the the Maldives had “a government budget envelop that is very difficult to finance.”

“The deficit is quite large. Financing is difficult to find. Banks are not that willing to subscribe to treasury bills. We see treasury bill yields rising quite sharply. MMA external financing is difficult to mobilise as you all know. We’re left then with MMA printing money in order to finance expenditures,” he explained.

A second option was “running up arrears, unpaid bills to domestic suppliers,” he added.

Both methods posed serious challenges, Mathai continued, as the government’s failure to pay its bills “creates ripples effects throughout the entire economy.”

Moreover, printing money to finance deficit spending “puts a lot of pressure on prices” and central bank reserves, he said.

“Because in a small country like the Maldives, when the MMA prints money, that is an injection of purchasing power into the economy, it means more people can import things,” Mathai said.

Printing money therefore “creates increased demand for dollars, increased imports, pressure on reserves,” he noted.

“As I said, the system seems to work. The parallel market somehow is letting the economy work,” he observed.

Solutions

As new sources of financing the budget were not available in the short-term, Mathai suggested targeting subsidies to the poor and increasing tourism taxes.

“The electricity subsidy is one that goes to even the richest strata of society. Basic food subsidies are being enjoyed now by the resorts, and never mind the resorts, are being enjoyed by wealthy foreign visitors who stay at the resorts. That to us seems like a totally unnecessary policy,” he said.

He added that “substantial savings” could be made from the budget by targeting subsidies to those most in need of assistance.

Mathai also argued that the rates of taxation in the tourism sector were “quite low” compared to other tourist destinations.

Mathai said he paid “north of 20 percent” in taxes at a hotel in Fiji while the Tourism Goods and Services Tax (T-GST) in the Maldives was only recently raised to 12 percent.

It would not be “a tax on business” that would slow down the economy, Mathai added.

“Rather it is saying people are coming and enjoying all that the Maldives has to offer, so let them pay something for it,” he said.

As 70 to 80 percent of the Maldivian economy was “driven by tourism,” Mathai said that it was “only natural that the [tourism industry is] contributing resources for the economy to operate.”

He added that “rates of return on Maldivian resorts are among the highest in the world” with profitable payback periods.

However, compared to other tourism-dependent economies, Mathai said that government expenditure in the Maldives was comparatively “very high” due to the geographic dispersion of the population and the large public sector wage bill.

In the medium-term, Mathai recommended taking measures to reform the civil service, improve delivery of public services and increase efficiency by economising.

“Ultimately we need to do a structural adjustment to the budget so that it’s more sustainable,” he concluded.

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Population consolidation, rightsizing public sector essential to address budget deficit: Auditor General

A policy of population consolidation together with effective measures to reduce the public sector wage bill is necessary to address continuing budget deficits, the Auditor General has advised parliament.

The recommendations were made in a report (Dhivehi) submitted to parliament with the Auditor General’s professional opinion on the proposed state budget for 2013.

Auditor General Niyaz Ibrahim observed that of the estimated MVR 12 billion (US$778 million) of recurrent expenditure, MVR 7 billion (US$453.9 million) would be spent on employees, including MVR 743 million (US$48 million) as pension payments.

Consequently, 59 percent of recurrent expenditure and 42 percent of the total budget would be spent on state employees.

“We note that the yearly increase in employees hired for state posts and jobs has been at a worrying level and that sound measures are needed,” the report stated. “It is unlikely that the budget deficit issue could be resolved without making big changes to the number of state employees as well as salaries and allowances to control state expenditure.”

The report noted that the bill on state wage policy recently passed by parliament would not address the issue as the legislation focused “mainly on reviewing salaries of state institutions.”

The Auditor General’s Office contended that “major changes” were needed to right-size the public sector and “control the salary of state employees and expenditure related to employees.”

The report observed that compared to 2012, the number of state employees is set to increase from 32,868 to 40,333 – resulting in MVR 1.3 billion (US$84.3 million) of additional expenditure in 2013.

This anticipated increase included 864 new staff to be hired by the Maldives Police Service (MPS) and Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF), the report noted.

In light of “existing inefficiencies” in the state, the Auditor General contended that hiring more staff for various independent institutions would be “a waste of public funds” as it would divert resources from service provision and development projects.

“Moreover, we note that increasing the number of employees would lead to an increase in office expenses and expenditure on employees’ retirement and pensions, decrease the number of people left to do productive work in the private sector (decrease the labour force), and slow the growth of the country’s economy,” the report stated.

Details of the state’s wage bill included in the report showed that MVR 187 million (US$12 million) was budgeted as salaries and allowances for 545 political appointees in 2012.

In addition, MVR 1.98 billion (US$128.4 million) was to be spent on 18,538 civil servants; MVR 999 million (US$64.7 million) on 6,244 police and army officers; MVR 362 million (US$23.4 million) on 1,455 elected representatives and attendant staff; MVR 485 million (US$31.4 million) on 3,372 employees of independent institutions; and MVR 345 million (US$22.3 million) on 2,714 contract staff.

In 2011, the Finance Ministry revealed that MVR 99 million (US$6.4 million) would be spent on 244 political appointees annually as salaries and allowances.

According to the weekly financial statement released by the Finance Ministry, recurrent expenditure as of December 20, 2012 has reached MVR 8.9 billion (US$577 million). Roughly half was spent on employees.

Fiscal imbalance

A report by the World Bank in May 2010 identified the dramatic growth of the public sector wage bill as the origin of the Maldives’ ongoing fiscal imbalances.

According to the report, increases to the salaries and allowances of government employees between 2006 and 2008 reached 66 percent, which was “by far the highest increase in compensation over a three year period to government employees of any country in the world.”

“Between 2004 and 2009, the average monthly salary of a government sector worker increased from MVR 3,223 (US$250) to MVR 11, 136 (US$866),” explained a UNDP paper on achieving debt sustainability in the Maldives published in December 2010.

Former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom responded to growing calls for democratisation with “a substantial fiscal stimulus programme” of increased government spending, “much of which was not related to post-tsunami reconstruction efforts.”

“This strategy led to a large increase in the number of civil servants from around 26,000 in 2004 to around 34,000 by 2008 or 11 percent of the total population. Thus the government simultaneously increased the number of public sector workers as well as their salaries,” the paper noted.

Consequently, recurrent expenditure – wage bill and administrative costs – exceeded 82 percent of total government spending in 2010. Presenting the estimated budget for 2013, Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad noted that more than 70 percent was recurrent expenditure.

“As in other years, the highest portion of recurrent expenditure is expenditure on [salaries and allowances for government] employees,” Jihad explained. “That is 48 percent of total recurrent expenditure.”

Population consolidation

Meanwhile, the Auditor General’s report noted that the government planned to carry out 406 projects under the public sector investment programme (PSIP) at a cost of MVR 3 billion (US$194 million).

The Auditor General however contended that the projects were formulated “without a national development plan” and that there was “no relation between the PSIP’s purpose and the proposed projects.”

While the stated purpose and policy of the government was population consolidation, the report stated that the harbour, sewerage, land reclamation, housing, coastal protection and other projects were included in the budget “without a plan” for integrating island populations in urban centres.

The Auditor General’s Office therefore advised against carrying out the projects planned for 2013 in the absence of a plan for population consolidation.

The report observed that “the main reason the state’s recurrent expenditure has increased” was developing 200 inhabited islands “as single units” and attempting to provide healthcare, education, social, administrative and legal services to small island populations.

The report stated that pursuing a policy of population consolidation was “essential”.

It added that the return on the investment for relocating populations of small islands would be seen in savings from the state’s budget for providing services to geographically dispersed islands.

While implementing such a policy could prove difficult, the Auditor General’s Office believed that “a national consensus” could be reached on the need for consolidating population.

Moreover, a glance at the state’s expenditure showed that continuing fiscal imbalances or budget deficits were “inevitable” if such a policy was not formulated, the report stated.

Deficit

The Auditor General explained that the fiscal deficit in 2012 was MVR 1.5 billion (US$97.2 million) more than forecast because of a shortfall in projected revenue from taxes and import duties as well as higher than budgeted expenditure on government companies and subsidies.

However, while revenue from Goods and Services Tax (GST), import duties and tourism land rent was lower than budgeted estimates, income from Business Profit Tax was more than expected at MVR 613.3 million (US$39.7 million).

The government also spent MVR 862.3 million (US$55.9 million) from the 2012 budget to settle bills outsanding from the previous year, the report noted

The Auditor General’s Office observed that revenue from the newly introduced GST was not enough to offset lost income from reducing and eliminating import duties.

“As a result of the change to the state’s taxation system, income to the state declined by MVR 495 million (US$32 million),” the report noted.

As reducing import duties had not resulted in a noticeable drop in prices, the Auditor General recommended reviewing the changes in consultation with the relevant authorities and amending the tax laws.

The 2013 budget

The Auditor General observed that the budget proposed for 2013 was 2.7 percent higher than 2012 and 19 percent higher than 2011.

An estimated budget deficit of MVR 2.33 billion (US$149 million) was to be financed by MVR 1.15 billion (US$74.5 million) in foreign loans and MVR 1.17 billion (US$75.8 million) in domestic finance.

Echoing a concern expressed by MPs during the recent budget debate, the Auditor General noted that projected revenue included MVR 1.8 billion (US$116 million) expected from new revenue raising measures that require parliamentary approval.

A recent mission from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had urged the government to implement a raft of measures to raise revenues, advising that strengthening government finances was “the most pressing macroeconomic priority for the Maldives.”

The measures proposed by the Finance Ministry included revising import duties, hiking T-GST from 8 to 15 percent in July 2013, raising airport service charge or departure tax from US$18 to US$30, introducing GST for telecom services and leasing 14 new islands for resort development.

On the last proposal, the Auditor General advised that the islands should not be leased without consulting the tourism industry and studying the impact of the decision in consideration of the tourism master plan.

The Auditor General concluded that it was “unlikely” that the new revenue would be collected in 2013.

Consequently, if there was a significant shortfall in income, the Auditor General warned that government revenue would not be enough to cover recurrent expenditure.

“Therefore, we note that it is very likely that MVR 509.9 million (US$33 million) would have to taken as loans to cover recurrent expenditure,” the Auditor General stated, advising that it was “necessary” to reduce recurrent expenditure by that amount before the budget is passed.

As a result of financing budget deficits with loans for the past six years, the Finance Ministry revealed earlier this month that government spending on loan repayment and interest payments was expected to reach MVR 3.1 billion (US$201 million) in 2012.

Moreover, the total public debt would stand at MVR 27 billion (US$1.7 billion) in 2012 and MVR 31 billion (US$2 billion) in 2013 – 82 percent of GDP.

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