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Tag: current account deficit

Imports, exports rise in 2012 as current account deficit worsens

Imports in the first ten months of 2012 increased by 18 percent compared to the same period last year, the Maldives Customs Service (MCS) has revealed.

In a press release on Thursday, MCS explained that while goods worth MVR 16.25 billion (US$1 billion) were imported in the first ten months of 2011, the figure as of the end of October 2012 was MVR 19.22 billion (US$1.2 billion).

However, as a result of import duty reductions approved by parliament in late 2011, income from import duties decreased by 50 percent compared to the same period in 2011.

“While MVR 2.09 billion (US$135.5 million) was received as import duties by October last year, import duties received in the same period this year was MVR 1.05 billion (US$68 million),” the press release stated.

As of January 1, 2012, it added, import duties were completely eliminated for some items while it was substantially reduced for other goods.

MCS has also collected MVR 40.5 million (US$2.6 million) as fines for import duty fraud and evasions and other fees so far this year.

As of October 2012, the highest volume of imports to the country came from United Arab Emirates with goods worth MVR 5.71 billion (US$370 million), followed by Singapore with goods worth MVR 3.68 billion (US$238 million).

Exports from the Maldives meanwhile rose 45 percent in the first 10 months of 2012 compared to the same period last year.

While locally produced goods worth MVR 1.38 billion (US$89 million) were exported in the first ten months of 2011, the figure as of October this year reached MVR 2.01 billion (US$130 million).

The highest volume of goods was exported to Thailand  at MVR522 million (US$33.8 million) followed by France at MVR 355 million (US$23 million).

The Finance Ministry revealed last week that real GDP growth of the fisheries industry was expected to be 9.7 percent in 2012 on the back of a boom in fisheries-related manufacturing and subsequent exports.

Balance of payments

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission to the Maldives last month noted that a ballooning fiscal deficit “has implied a rise in the public debt ratio, which now stands at over 80 percent of GDP, and has also helped to boost national imports, thus worsening dollar shortages in the economy and putting pressure on MMA (Maldives Monetary Authority) reserves.”

The IMF forecast for the current account deficit was “nearly 30 percent of GDP this year.”

“Gross international reserves at the MMA have been declining slowly, [and] now account for just one and a half months of imports, and could be more substantially pressured if major borrowings maturing in the next few months are not rolled over,” the IMF mission warned.

The mission recommended formulating “a realistic and prudent budget for 2013” to rein in the fiscal deficit, suggesting hiking taxes and “selectively” reversing import duty reductions.

According to an overview of the economy presented by the Finance Ministry along with the state budget (Dhivehi) proposed to parliament last week, the current account deficit in 2012 was expected to be 27 percent of GDP.

The current account deficit was forecast to widen to 28 percent of GDP in 2013 as imports far exceed exports.

The volume of imports in 2013 was forecast to be seven percent higher than this year, the Finance Ministry stated.

The forecast for revenue from exports in 2013 was US$350.7 million, up from an estimated US$329.8 million in 2012.

Fisheries exports and jet fuel re-exports are projected to rise in 2013, the Finance Ministry explained.

The Finance Ministry also revealed that the official treasury reserve declined from US$334.9 million at the end of 2011 to an estimated US$297 million by the end of this year.

As the reserve was expected to be further depleted in 2013 as a result of paying back loans taken by the government, the Finance Ministry estimated that the reserve would be enough for 1.7 months worth of imports on average in 2013.

However, the ministry noted that the official reserve could rise to US$339.4 million in 2013 if proposed revenue raising measures are implemented – including hiking T-GST to 15 percent and raising the airport service charge from departing passengers to US$30.

“Considering the amount of imports from the official reserve, this is a reserve enough for two months of imports,” the Finance Ministry stated.

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Posted on December 3, 2012December 3, 2012Author Ahmed NaishCategories Business & Tourism, Society & CultureTags balance of payments, current account deficit, exports, fiscal deficit, fisheries products, IMF, Import duty, imports, maldives news, official treasury reserve5 Comments on Imports, exports rise in 2012 as current account deficit worsens

Taming fiscal deficit “most pressing macroeconomic priority for Maldives”: IMF mission

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged the government to implement a raft of measures to raise revenue and reduce spending to rein in a ballooning fiscal deficit.

In a statement on Monday following a visit by an IMF mission for the 2012 Article IV Consultation – the organisation’s “regular exchange of views with member countries” – the IMF team noted that strengthening government finances was “the most pressing macroeconomic priority for Maldives”.

“The fiscal deficit is expected to rise in 2012 to 16 percent of GDP [Gross Domestic Product] in cash terms, and likely even higher if one accounts for the government’s unpaid bills, accumulated in an increasingly challenging environment for financing,” the IMF mission stated.

In April 2012, the head of a previous IMF mission to the Maldives told Minivan News that the country’s fiscal deficit was “substantially understated” at less than 10 percent of GDP as projected in the 2012 budget, predicting a figure closer to 17.5 percent of GDP or higher.

“The large deficit has implied a rise in the public debt ratio, which now stands at over 80 percent of GDP, and has also helped to boost national imports, thus worsening dollar shortages in the economy and putting pressure on MMA [Maldives Monetary Authority] reserves,” the more recent IMF mission said in its statement.

The forecast for the current account deficit was “nearly 30 percent of GDP this year.”

“Gross international reserves at the MMA have been declining slowly, [and] now account for just one and a half months of imports, and could be more substantially pressured if major borrowings maturing in the next few months are not rolled over,” the IMF mission warned.

Recommendations to formulate “a realistic and prudent budget for 2013” meanwhile included hiking T-GST (Tourism Goods and Services Tax) and “selectively” reversing import duty reductions.

“On the expenditure side, electricity subsidies can be better targeted to the needy, costs of the health programme Aasandha can be further rationalised and reduced, wages should be controlled, including through the establishment of a Pay Commission, and a plan could be laid out for medium-term civil service reform.”

The mission suggested that tighter monetary policy could “help support the exchange rate and the needed external adjustment.”

“Higher Treasury bill yields, in conjunction with some technical changes to the monetary operations framework, may also help to ease the government’s financing difficulties,” the mission noted.

“Finally, resorts’ foreign-exchange licenses could be restricted to small-value amounts to help channel dollars through the formal banking system.”

Economic growth in 2012 was meanwhile expected to slow to three and half percent on the back of “depressed tourist arrivals earlier in the year and weak global conditions,” which have been “only partially offset by strong performance in construction and fisheries-related manufacturing.”

Inflation was “elevated on account of increases to GST and international food prices but is expected to slow to under 6 percent next year and decline further thereafter.”

Following consultations with President Dr Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik, Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad, members of parliament and MMA Governor Dr Fazeel Najeeb, the mission noted that “the authorities have expressed an interest in a Staff Monitored Programme,” for which further discussions would be held.

In its meeting with parliament’s Finance and Economic Committees last week, the IMF mission urged the Majlis to expedite legislation on fiscal responsibility.

The mission said it would prepare a report for consideration by the IMF Executive Board in January 2013.

“Rationalising”

Following the visit of the IMF team from October 30 to November 12, head of the mission Koshy Mathai met the press at the MMA auditorium on Monday.

Mathai revealed that the mission had recommended increasing T-GST to 15 percent, noting that “the Maldives takes a smaller tax from tourism industry than other small nations such as Fiji, Mauritius, and Seychelles, who are heavily dependent on tourism.”

However, unlike the other countries, Mathai said, “rich tourists visit the Maldives. For them, an increase in prices will not be a deterrent.”

Hiking T-GST and raising import duties on oil and liquor were among drastic austerity measures proposed by the Finance Ministry to parliament’s Finance Committee in August.

Several resort managers told Minivan News at the time that the proposed measures will affect the financial viability of the tourism industry.

However, most of the measures have not been implemented. Appealing for cooperation from government offices to reduce their budgets, Finance Minister Jihad told Minivan News in September that “everyone should tighten their belts.”

Jihad told local media yesterday that the ministry accepted the recommendations and would work with parliament to implement the measures in next year’s budget.

Mathai meanwhile observed that government subsidies on foodstuff imported by the State Trading Organisation (STO) benefited rich and poor alike.

“The resorts are buying these staple foods at highly subsidised prices,” he noted.

Moreover, the government’s universal health programme Aasandha needed changes to reduce costs, Mathai suggested, such as “moving to generic drugs and controlling payments that are made to foreign hospitals.”

“Harmonising” the pay scale

Mathai also stressed the importance of instituting a Pay Commission to streamline the pay structure for government employees.

“We have a lot of independent institutions in this country and they are all on different pay scales,” he observed.

“There’s no harmonisation within the public service. There are radically different pay scales. And that has problems in terms of incentivising staff to belong to one institution versus the other. And it also implies a lot of cost for the government. So establishing a Pay Commission that can set up a rational system of compensation for the entire public service seems like a priority.”

On reforming the civil service “in the medium term,” Mathai referred to a programme conducted by the previous government to incentivise voluntary redundancy, which “didn’t work so well.”

As part of an alternative “bottom-up approach,” Mathai revealed that the new government has completed “a detailed jobs analysis in many ministries.”

The analysis was intended to identify “where more staff need to be hired and [whether] some staff can be let go” as well as to determine “the best way of rationalising the size and composition of the civil service to make it deliver services most efficiently for the Maldives.”

In the medium term, said Mathai, a policy of population consolidation could ensure that service provision and administrative costs were “not duplicated.”

“To us that seems like a very logical thing, a very logical way of reducing costs, but of course it has to be done in a voluntary way,” Mathai said.

Economic diversification was also necessary to ensure that the economy has “more than one or two bases to go forward and reduce vulnerabilities to risks,” he added.

According to a report by the World Bank in May 2010 – which identified the dramatic growth of the public sector wage bill as the origin of the Maldives’ ongoing fiscal imbalances – increases to the salaries and allowances of government employees between 2006 and 2008 reached 66 percent, which was “by far the highest increase in compensation over a three year period to government employees of any country in the world.”

“Between 2004 and 2009, the average monthly salary of a government sector worker increased from MVR 3,223 (US$250) to MVR 11, 136 (US$866),” explained a UNDP paper on achieving debt sustainability in the Maldives published in December 2010.

Former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom responded to growing calls for democratisation with “a substantial fiscal stimulus programme” of increased government spending, “much of which was not related to post-tsunami reconstruction efforts.”

“This strategy led to a large increase in the number of civil servants from around 26,000 in 2004 to around 34,000 by 2008 or 11 percent of the total population. Thus the government simultaneously increased the number of public sector workers as well as their salaries,” the paper noted.

Consequently, recurrent expenditure – wage bill and administrative costs – exceeded 82 percent of total government spending in 2010.

However, the new government’s efforts to enforce pay cuts of up to 20 percent and downsize the civil service – which employs a third of the country’s workforce – were met with “a severe political backlash from parliament,” the UNDP paper observed.

Introducing an economic reform package in late 2011, former President Mohamed Nasheed’s administration insisted that increased revenue from new taxes would match expenditure, and boasted that the 2012 budget was the first in many years to balance income and expenditure.

Monetary policy

Meanwhile, on the recommendation to raise rates on T-bills to finance government spending, Mathai suggested that if the government was “willing to pay higher yields, maybe the banks would be willing to subscribe.”

Mathai cautioned against loosening monetary policy “when dollars are at short supply and the local currency is under some pressure, as it has been for years.”

“Loosening the policy means pushing the economy to grow faster, creating more import demand, creating more demand for dollars – you don’t want to flood the system with rufiyaa so that people can bid many rufiyaa for each dollar in the parallel market,” he explained.

“Rather, you want to absorb the rufiyaa so they can’t bid so many rufiyaa and parallel market rates come down.”

The IMF mission also believed that financial supervision of the banking system “could definitely be strengthened,” Mathai said, suggesting that “some leeway recently given in terms of provisioning requirements for banks could be rolled back and banks should be required to comply with the original rules, which were tougher.”

On regulatory measures that could be taken to alleviate the dollar shortage, Mathai suggested “making sure that resorts that are dealing with foreign exchange don’t have unrestricted licenses to deal with any amount of money.”

Resorts should be “restricted to small value transactions that are appropriate for the visitors that are staying there,” he said.

Mathai also explained that the requested “Staff Monitoring Programme” would not involve disbursement of funds from the IMF.

“We would basically see how the government is doing against its own targets – it would set targets for itself for performance of these different economic areas – and then if the track record is built up and things are going well, then maybe later we could discuss having a programme where money is disbursed,” Mathai said.

Asked about the previous administration’s decision to float the rufiyaa – which the IMF praised as “a bold step” – Mathai said the IMF’s “fundamental suggestion had always been, and remains, to tighten the fiscal deficit.”

The dollar shortage could not be tackled without reducing government spending, he explained, because “devaluation alone will never succeed.”

“What happened last year is basically that the fiscal position didn’t really improve – it improved in cash terms, but you know a lot of bills were not paid,” he said. “So really there wasn’t any tightening of fiscal policy. I think that’s the fundamental reason why devaluation was not as successful as it could have been.”

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Posted on November 14, 2012November 14, 2012Author Ahmed NaishCategories Business & Tourism, PoliticsTags budget deficit, civil servant's pay, current account deficit, devaluation, dollar shortage, Finance Minister Abdulla Jihad, fiscal deficit, IMF mission, import duties, Koshy Mathai, maldives news, MMA, monetary policy, Pay Commission, pay cuts, subsidies, T-GST, wage bill6 Comments on Taming fiscal deficit “most pressing macroeconomic priority for Maldives”: IMF mission

Positive economic development requires “less destructive political climate”, says World Bank

A strong rebound in tourism and government policy efforts to redress macroeconomic imbalances have stabilised the macroeconomic situation and spurred growth in 2010, but a fractious political environment and accelerating international commodity prices remain key challenges, according to a World Bank Economic Update Report published last week.

The report notes that fiscal consolidation – reigning in the ballooning budget deficit with austerity measures and the introduction of taxation on business profits – “remains the foremost challenge in the coming years”.

“A less destructive political climate” will be needed to maintain recent positive developments, the World Bank cautions.

“Despite having posted better-than-expected fiscal results in the first half of the year, the country will be hard-pressed to sustain this in the medium term,” it reads. “However, despite the challenges, the government remains steadfastly committed to fiscal consolidation.”

An internal report by the World Bank, obtained by Minivan News in May, revealed that the doubling of spending on state salaries in 2007-09 crippled the country’s economy, and left the Maldives “facing the most challenging macroeconomic situation of any democratic transitions that has occurred since 1956.”

Fiscal consolidation

While maintaining public sector pay cuts and other austerity measures introduced in October 2009 was “one of the government’s main achievements”, the most recent report notes that it is “highly likely that the forthcoming budget for 2011 will restore the civil service salaries to previous levels.”

With the restoration of civil service salaries in January 2011, salaries of police and army officers as well as political appointees will also be simultaneously restored – “thus completely reversing the pay cuts for all categories of public sector workers.”

The report flags slow progress on “rightsizing the public sector”, noting that planned layoffs “have not been carried out to a significant extent.”

Moreover, public sector workers transferred to corporatised entities – currently state-owned – “remain directly within the payroll of the government.”

In addition, the government’s pledge in May to the seven percent contribution from public sector employees to the pension fund “would likely result in an additional Rf94 million (or 0.5 percent of GDP) in expenditure over the remaining seven months of the year.”

The new structure of island and atoll councils is meanwhile expected to cost the government an extra Rf173 million (US$13.5 million).

However, the introduction of a tourist goods and services tax (TGST) and replacing resort leases with a land rent was a “positive fiscal development.”

As of July, the fiscal deficit was 15.5 percent of GDP “against a target for the year of 18.2 percent of GDP.”

Total expenditure during the first seven months of the year was meanwhile below the target of Rf6 billion at Rf5.25 billion “due largely to a cut-back of non-salary operating expenses and capital expenditure.”

However, total revenue as of July was 12 percent below budget as a result of marginal increases in import duty collection and tourism tax receipts.

While the budget for 2010 anticipated that parliament would pass legislation for Business Profit Tax in December 2009, the “earliest likely start date” for the tax is now expected to be the first quarter of 2011.

The report notes that continuing delays to passing the bill “will hurt the fiscal position.”

Transformation in monetary policy

The Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) ceasing printing money to finance the budget deficit – deficit monetising – in September 2009 was “a transformation” of monetary policy in the Maldives.

The report notes that open market operations (OMO) commenced by the MMA in August 2009 “has been carried out successfully, draining much of the excess rufiyaa liquidity in the system.”

As a result of the successful OMO, “[net] credit outstanding to the government from the MMA has dropped, thereby reaching the target of the IMF program for end-August.”

The MMA has also been assisting the government to “broaden the base of the domestic T-bill [Treasury Bill] market”, augmenting the existing portfolio of government securities in July with the introduction of the 182-day T-bill.

In December 2009, the government issued US$100 million worth of T-bills to the State Bank of India, the first issuance of securities denominated in US dollars.

The report notes that despite a gradual recovery in global commodity prices, “national headline inflation remains benign and in single digits” at 6.3 year-on-year at August 2010, down from 6.9 percent in July.

In August inflation at the atolls dropped to just 4.4 percent, despite being traditionally higher than in the capital Male’.

Public sector credit (PSC) meanwhile continued to stagnate in 2010, contracting one percent by July.

“Business sentiment remains subdued, with work on resort construction having hit a snag, and the domestic banking system not showing enthusiasm for credit expansion,” it finds.

However, despite recording “the fastest growth in PSC for nearly 20 months – 1.5 percent –driven mainly by credit to the resort sector” in July, “it may be a while before the PSC shows a sustained sign of recovery, with the global conditions still weak.”

Widening current account deficit

While the Balance of Payments situation improved significantly in 2009 “with a faster contraction in imports relative to exports”, rising import prices have contributed to a widening trade deficit.

“During the first seven months of 2010, total import growth (12.3 percent) outstripped export growth (nearly 9 percent), and resulted in a widening of the trade deficit to US$ 506.5 million – 13 percent higher than in 2009,” it reads.

“If global commodity price growth does not accelerate, the trade deficit is likely to remain manageable during the rest of the year, and coupled with higher inflows from tourism,15 the overall current account deficit is expected to narrow further in 2010 to 27 percent of GDP.”

As the Maldives is “one of the most open economies in the world” with imports accounting for over 90 percent of GDP, the report warns that rising international food and fuel prices could worsen the trade deficit, put pressure on foreign exchange reserves and increase consumer price inflation.

“One positive aspect of the rising value of commodity imports is that fiscal outcomes could improve, if planned expenditure cuts are implemented, since 30 percent of government revenues come from import duties,” it concludes.

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Posted on December 7, 2010December 7, 2010Author Ahmed NaishCategories Business & Tourism, PoliticsTags budget deficit, civil servants pay cut, current account deficit, fiscal consolidation, Macroeconomic imbalance, maldives news, monetary policy, World Bank Economic Update Report2 Comments on Positive economic development requires “less destructive political climate”, says World Bank
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